Continuing coronavirus happenings (Part 3)

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Just tell them it’s “vitamin D”.

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I’m a bit anxious about the Delta variant b/c of such reporting, but it seems at least in the UK that current figures do not allow the conclusion that it leads to a more severe illness more often, if you have a closer look. Also, vaccination still helps to reduce the risk. I just hope that we can vaccinate the shit out of this summer.

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The interaction of the Delta variant and a vaccination programme that targets the most vulnerable populations means that the top level data really can’t tell you anything about the severity of cases of the Delta variant.

(all following data sourced from Scotland Coronavirus Tracker)

Here’s the current outbreak of cases compared to the last wave:

But here’s the effect it’s having on hospitals:


Not nearly so bad, right? From this, you might conclude that the Delta variant is less severe. But hang on.

Here’s how that latest surge looks when broken down by age group:

Almost all of the latest surge is happening amongst younger people, who are then less likely to be hospitalised when they get COVID.

And why are younger people getting it this time round:

Because they’re the ones that haven’t been vaccinated yet (and as the graphs illustrate, Vaccination works really well.). We’re having an age-based roll out of the vaccines, and the overall uptake levels are incredibly high in the cohorts that have been almost totally covered so far.

But what about those younger people- are they not getting vaccinated?
NO
Here’s the figures aaround the roll-out for the last seven days:

First doses:

And second doses:

The younger cohorts that are getting infected are getting their jabs, it’s just that the vulnerability based queuing system means that they’re only now becoming eligible. When they are eligible, they’re getting vaccinated.
(To be sure, there are some worrying trends, like people who have moved addresses recently or aren’t registered with a GP being harder to reach with an appointment, but overall, take-up is still great, and we can focus on anyone who has fallen through the cracks when we see the bulk of the population have been done.)

This overall picture means that we would have to look specifically at the people who have been infected with the Delta variant and compare them to a similar group of people who caught another variant before we could see the full picture here. The overall trend between the waves is just so different that they are going to be very difficult to compare.

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Thanks. Didn’t have energy to explain further.

That’s what I meant. The data is skewed.(Addition aspect: unequal distribution of cases amongst social groups seems to change, but is still an additional factor which makes interpretation difficult).

my posts should be more clear, and I should have also continued to contribute above to the discussion about the lab leak hypothesis discussion. don’t have the energy. feels bad.

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And then one day, they’ll discover it really means $SOMETHING_THEY_DONT_LIKE, and ditch it at the drop of a hat.

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Pro tip: do not compare anything that isn’t actual genocide to the Holocaust. Full stop.

From the article “The judge also denounced the plaintiffs for equating the vaccine mandate to forced experimentation by the Nazis against Jewish people during the Holocaust.”

Seriously, wtf is it with anti-vaxxers comparing vaccination or COVID restrictions to the Holocaust?!

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I swear some people would shy away from that balanced scales symbol the way a vampire shies away from a cross.

Speaking of which: I was just on a long flight for work. There was a middle-aged white guy at the gate who was walking around with no mask, even sticking his head past the plexiglass barrier to yap at one of the staff working the desk. They told him to wear his mask, but he was chinstrapping. When I entered the plane, I gave the flight attendants the heads up that there were folks who were not wearing masks at the gate and thanked them in advance for having to deal with that. Sure enough this guy, just a few seats ahead of me, pulls down his mask as he’s going down the aisle, then completely removes it as he sits down. When the flight attendant comes down the aisle for pre-flight she tells him to mask up. So he does, but pulls off one ear strap. As the flight attendant comes forward again, she notices and signals for him to correct it. So he does. And when she turns and heads to the front of the plane, he goes chinstrap again. :roll_eyes:

He stays like that through takeoff and until we hit altitude. When the flight attendants come through next, they tell him again to wear his mask. So he does, but this time he again waits until they aren’t looking and goes to dicknose mode. I hit the flight attendant button and pointed to the guy as the flight attendant came down the aisle. She stopped at the guy and finally read him the riot act, saying that if he kept neglecting his mask, he could be arrested at the destination and be banned from flying with the airlines for life. He acted all offended, but from then on complied. I noticed that 5 minutes didn’t go by without a flight attendant cruising by for the rest of the flight.

We are close to beating this thing. Why can’t some people just fucking fall across the finish line?!

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It’s almost like the holocaust is really on their mind for some reason. :thinking:

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Friendly reminder from science: overconfidence is dangerous.

Personal take: I try to mention off-hand in as many conversations as possible that vaccinations do not cause sterile immunity, even for fully vaccinated people. Now, I can probably mention the increased risk described here, as well.

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I highly recommend people read the judge’s ruling, it’s short, to the point and scathing, in a very understated way.

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I’m glad to see that they got good results in their trials, but considering that a big part of this trial was done in Mexico you’d think that the drug company would have picked a different name. Come on, Novavax? Did they learn nothing from Chevy’s experience selling cars there in the 70’s?

(Ok, yeah, I know that was actually an urban legend)

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all this maneuvering with the on and the off and the chin and the nose, it’s a lot of extra work

it’s a performance, he wants people to watch him break the rules and get away with it

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Excited Tom Hiddleston GIF by Disney+

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