Continuing coronavirus happenings (Part 3)

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Just a follow-up: Our CEO and our production facility are located in Las Vegas. I just heard that the production manager, who was vaccinated (J&J vaccine), also tested positive after experiencing symptoms.

Good news is that everyone other than the production manager is vigilant about masking. The rest of the production people are getting tested today even though they are vaccinated. :crossed_fingers:

I’m just glad I work out of the CA office, where we still are able to WFH.

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:roll_eyes:

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I ended up just watching the advisory committee meeting presentation, which helped answer some questions about their numbers and methodology:

(The portion discussing myocarditis starts at about 1 hour and 45 minutes)

Some key takeaways:
*The “expected numbers” they referred to was for the entire 30-day observation window following the shots, and are just the annual expected rates divided by 12. However, the vast majority of observed cases happened much quicker than that, with a median time of 3 days after the shot for symptom onset. So if you were to look at “expected” vs. “observed” cases for that first week rather than for the 30 days, the correlation is much stronger.

*Looking at the paper they used as the reference annual case rates for the “expected” numbers of myocarditis, they simply don’t have good data broken down by the specific age groups they’re trying to focus on. They have data for the rate of myocarditis for the entire population at large, the rate for people over 65, and the rate for people who were actively enrolled in the military. So that’s why they gave such a huge range for “expected” numbers: there’s a lot of variation depending on which of those groups you’re looking at. But the most realistic numbers for young people are probably at the low end of the range, closer to active military than to the older than 65 group.

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The long and short of the article

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Just tell them it’s “vitamin D”.

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I’m a bit anxious about the Delta variant b/c of such reporting, but it seems at least in the UK that current figures do not allow the conclusion that it leads to a more severe illness more often, if you have a closer look. Also, vaccination still helps to reduce the risk. I just hope that we can vaccinate the shit out of this summer.

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The interaction of the Delta variant and a vaccination programme that targets the most vulnerable populations means that the top level data really can’t tell you anything about the severity of cases of the Delta variant.

(all following data sourced from Scotland Coronavirus Tracker)

Here’s the current outbreak of cases compared to the last wave:

But here’s the effect it’s having on hospitals:


Not nearly so bad, right? From this, you might conclude that the Delta variant is less severe. But hang on.

Here’s how that latest surge looks when broken down by age group:

Almost all of the latest surge is happening amongst younger people, who are then less likely to be hospitalised when they get COVID.

And why are younger people getting it this time round:

Because they’re the ones that haven’t been vaccinated yet (and as the graphs illustrate, Vaccination works really well.). We’re having an age-based roll out of the vaccines, and the overall uptake levels are incredibly high in the cohorts that have been almost totally covered so far.

But what about those younger people- are they not getting vaccinated?
NO
Here’s the figures aaround the roll-out for the last seven days:

First doses:

And second doses:

The younger cohorts that are getting infected are getting their jabs, it’s just that the vulnerability based queuing system means that they’re only now becoming eligible. When they are eligible, they’re getting vaccinated.
(To be sure, there are some worrying trends, like people who have moved addresses recently or aren’t registered with a GP being harder to reach with an appointment, but overall, take-up is still great, and we can focus on anyone who has fallen through the cracks when we see the bulk of the population have been done.)

This overall picture means that we would have to look specifically at the people who have been infected with the Delta variant and compare them to a similar group of people who caught another variant before we could see the full picture here. The overall trend between the waves is just so different that they are going to be very difficult to compare.

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Thanks. Didn’t have energy to explain further.

That’s what I meant. The data is skewed.(Addition aspect: unequal distribution of cases amongst social groups seems to change, but is still an additional factor which makes interpretation difficult).

my posts should be more clear, and I should have also continued to contribute above to the discussion about the lab leak hypothesis discussion. don’t have the energy. feels bad.

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And then one day, they’ll discover it really means $SOMETHING_THEY_DONT_LIKE, and ditch it at the drop of a hat.

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Pro tip: do not compare anything that isn’t actual genocide to the Holocaust. Full stop.

From the article “The judge also denounced the plaintiffs for equating the vaccine mandate to forced experimentation by the Nazis against Jewish people during the Holocaust.”

Seriously, wtf is it with anti-vaxxers comparing vaccination or COVID restrictions to the Holocaust?!

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