Continuing coronavirus happenings (Part 4)

general topics
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https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00210-7

[ETA: this does not onebox, since nature is a subscription-based publication and they somehow prevent that. I wish this would not be the case for free content. This also breaks the “read aloud” option with the Google Assistant, which otherwise is pretty cool to use while, e.g., doing the laundry… But I digress. Here’s the headline:]

Will Omicron end the pandemic? Here’s what experts say

The variant’s rapid spread, different vaccine strategies and varying levels of immunity worldwide make the pandemic’s future difficult to model.

I remember a discussion in this very topic in which I argued SARS-CoV-2 would become endemic:

Given that the virus is unlikely to disappear completely, COVID-19 will inevitably become an endemic disease, scientists say. But that’s a slippery concept, and one that means different things to different people.

[Emphasis mine.]

[It] will take decades, and it means many older people today (who were not exposed as children) will remain vulnerable and might need continued vaccinations. […] Some of those exposed as children will develop long COVID. And it relies on children continuing to show much lower rates of severe illness as variants evolve.

Yeah.

The last (quoted) sentence of the piece linked above? I personally will not bet on their opinion.

I would love everyone, as phrased above, to stay vigilant.

I also wish we would fucking try to err on the side of caution and not getting fucking lied to.

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An interesting little bit of history came to light this week. The smallpox vaccine mandate in Montreal :canada: in 1885 led to a violent riot.

I googled the “Anti-Vaccination League of Canada”, established in 1900 after all that, but they don’t seem to have a web site. The membership must have all died out… /s

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And this is where I am alarmed. I am seeing increasing numbers of kids with weird post-covid symptoms, no clue how long they will continue, or even if they will eventually resolve. Given the current situation, I don’t think there is a way out that does not involve truly epic levels of morbidity and mortality, and even at an endemic level, I am not sure that it will get better. Smallpox was endemic prior to effective vaccination campaigns and resulted in graveyards full of dead children. Covid is highly unlikely (based on past performance, future results may vary) to produce loads of dead kids, but I do worry about the morbidity burden. How many kids will have their future limited? No way to answer that at this point in time. Worrisome times.

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That triggers a question…
Is there some data collection on this you are aware of, or even contributing to?

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Nope and nope. Weirdly ignored situation, but there is precious little data out there, and what there is, is all based on very small data sets. That’s why you will see very wide error bars on most of the pediatric stats. “4-10% incidence of cardiomyopathy” is a very broad range, but it’s all we have for now. I will say again, I foresee a whole new medical specialty growing out of this, focusing on post-covid (hopefully, more broadly, post-viral) complications. Maybe we will get better numbers then. Of course, I am also pretty jaded on anybody giving a damn about pediatrics, and could see such studies being actively suppressed in some areas. Sigh.

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pre-print, not yet peer-reviewed

ETA, to clarify: Not that I’m promoting this. See @anon29537550 ‘s opinion, directly below. I agree with docosc.

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Well, I have many thoughts.

The study was carried out using a strain of the virus before the emergence of the Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants.

With this I question the usefulness of the data gathered, since Delta, and even more so, Omicron, have modified and intensified the infectious process.

detail the outcomes in 36 healthy, young participants with no immunity to the virus.

I guess this is a way to make use of folks who won’t vaccinate, but see above.

The study also revealed that of the 18 people who became infected, all had similar viral loads regardless of whether they developed symptoms, underlining the role of asymptomatic transmission.

Not really news, but OK. See first point

Prof Sir Jonathan Van-Tam, the deputy chief medical officer for England, said: “Scientifically, these studies offer real advantage because the timing of exposure to the virus is always known exactly, therefore things like the interval between exposure and the profile of virus shedding can be accurately described.

No, no it really does not. If you are studying the pre-Alpha virus behavior, you are a couple years late to the party.

Finally, how did this get through the ethics process? I assume they screened for underlying health issues, but even healthy people can suffer horrible outcomes from covid. This is a reach.

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Thank you, I was hoping you would read it and weigh in. I had thoughts similar to yours, but I’m no expert.

I thought it was interesting, something to think about…but should I delete it?

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No, it’s potentially interesting data, just not what it is being described as. Leave it up as service, I guess?

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Sad Ben Affleck GIF

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Are you seeing this mostly with kids who experienced symptoms or even with the kids who were symptomless?

Long COVID and the long term ramifications of it are frankly terrifying. Particularly for children.

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In my experience, and the reports and studies I have read, there does not seem to be any correlation between severity, or even presence, of symptoms for most long covid issues in kids. With one exception, and that is pulmonary symptoms, which do, logically, correlate pretty strongly with severity of initial illness. I agree, though, the long covid keeps me up at night. I am very privileged, as a pediatrician, in that my patients do not generally have to worry about life-and-death with this, but the long term in a child is long term, and the consequences can be awful.

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lockdowns in Europe and the United States only
reduced COVID-19 mortality by 0.2% on average.

I’m a bit skeptical.

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It certainly sets off my bullshit detectors.

The selection criteria seem to be drawn in such a way as to exclude all but a handful of studies, which just happen to be the ones that agree with their conclusions.

Also, it just so happens that a paper authored by someone with the biography below, comes to the conclusion that we should just re-open everything and put the needs of business first?

Steve H. Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics and Founder & Co-Director of The Johns
Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise. He
is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the Cato Institute, a
contributor at National Review, a well-known currency reformer, and a currency and commodity
trader. Prof. Hanke served on President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers

Please note my complete lack of surprise.

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@LutherBlisset

It looks like Reuters issued a retraction on that story about Kowa and ivermectin, noting that it was non-clinical testing.

(Ignore the headline. The article talks about how Joe Rogan was using that Reuters article.)

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No Way Reaction GIF by EA SPORTS FIFA

The news simply said that in a test-tube study, ivermectin showed “antiviral” capabilities against omicron.

So does concentrated sulphuric acid.

What the hell.

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I hear that bleach works pretty well too in a test tube.

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