Corbyn's Labour surges to an 8-point lead over the Tories


#1

Originally published at: http://boingboing.net/2017/07/08/unelectablity-reconsidered.html


#2

And she needn’t call another General Election until, what, 2022? Shades of the apocryphal comment of the Vietnamese General to General Westmorland in the 1980s: “The US Army beat you every time we met you on the field.” “That is entirely true. And completely irrelevant.”


#3

There isn’t much of a margin. A few absences, rank-breakers, by-elections, and it would no longer be under her control.


#4

I wouldn’t read too much into that stat. People like a winner and Corbyn “won” that election. Trump’s popularity increased after he won the election too. Give it a few more months before drawing any conclusions.


#5

I’m not terribly well versed in the mechanisms of UK’s government but as I understand it the opposition can force a new election after one of those Vote of No Confidence things. Right?


#6

It could be a specific vote of confidence, or a budget bill, which I think is automatically a confidence vote. If they can’t get a majority even with the speaker to break a tie, then the government immediately goes down. The PM goes to the Queen, and usually an election is called. (The leader of the opposition could be called to form the government without an election, but that’s rare and unlikely to be a good idea.)

However, that would require all the opposing parties to agree to force an election, and the governing party’s numbers weak enough for it to work. Smaller parties might hesitate if they know that they’ll be squeezed out. Sometimes there’s voter backlash against a party that forces an election too soon–especially after the Tories were hit by that–so the opposition won’t be in a rush.


#7

Oh, and there’s also changing the Prime Minister by backbencher revolt, like as happened to Thatcher.

That could happen any rainy afternoon that the Tory MPs decide that May has to go. It’s not a fixed elected position like President.


#8

The difference is Trump won so people can judge what he is doing as president. Corbyn can sail along in opposition with no real check on how realistic his proposals are or if he is able to govern well. All that is needed for Corbyn to remain popular is for May to keep stumbling.


#9

They changed the law in 2011.

Part of the LD’s agreement with the Conservatives.


#10

That was surely more of a front bench revolt. The Cabinet went to see her one by one and told her it was all up till her whisky-sozzled brain finally got the message.

The position with May is totally different. Special interest groups like the DUP and the Scottish Conservatives - essentially the left wing of the Party - can tell her what to do. The right has a problem. If they force an election because she doesn’t do what they say, they risk a Labour government. My suspicion (I am usually wrong) is that what Ruth Davidson may do is get more and more concessions out of May for Scotland - and then bring down the Government over a Scottish issue and campaign in Scotland on the basis that the SNP is now irrelevant because Scotland has enough independence. That way she has a possibility of being in a coalition in Scotland and Westminster can gae feck itsel’. But before she’s sure of that she needs May in power.


#11

Or until there can be a vote of no confidence in her government, and there are quite a few Conservatives who are not happy with the deal with the DUP.

This government is being held together with sticky tape and prayers.


#12

And yet there she still is, squatting in number 10 after buying the election for 1.5b. Whatever she told her cabinet after that disastrous result it seems to have satisfied their blood lust: we haven’t seen much evidence of any tory rebellion during votes yet. The longer this goes on the stronger her position is getting.


#13

Well, she does look a bit… tired, don’t you think?


#14

Yeah we went there in 1975. Its a terrible, disruptive way to run a country. A cure almost as bad as the disease. I am sure the queen remembers what happened to the reputation of John Kerr after the dismissal and I doubt she would see it as a viable way forwards if there was any alternative at all.


#15

Pretty scary when the DUP counts as “essentially the left wing” of your party…


#16

Maybe T.May was right in calling the elections when she did - she’s still PM, hanging on by a thread, might not have been able to do that six months deeper into Brexit and her term.


#17

We went there in 1926. I doubt that it’s ever pretty.


#18

the treacherous Blairites who tried to stab him in the back, who now owe their jobs to him.

I see @doctorow’s been drinking the Momentum kool-aid.


#19

Too little, too late. He should have had that lead before the election.


#20

Technically yes, but remember at least 1/3 of the MP’s are ‘Blairite’ rightwingers who’d quite happily destroy the party rather than let anyone the slightest part leftwing regain control of the party. Essentially they are Tories too embarrassed to actively run under the Tory banner.

The situation is slowly fixing itself, but sadly it’s still too early to force things forwards.