Coronavirus: More than 1,000 people have died, mostly in China

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Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2020/02/10/coronavirus-1000-people-have.html

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Dr. Tara C. Smith is excellent to follow on twitter for this topic.

https://twitter.com/aetiology

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That bomb shelter in the basement is starting to look sexy.

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There are apparently unofficial reports about the virus having made its way to North Korea despite NK restricting its borders with China more so than usual. Unsure if true i am curious if it did make it there, if so it will likely be catastrophic.

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Anyone have a graph on new cases over time? Are we tracking linear or exponential?

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I wouldn’t put it past certain governments to plant it there for just such an outcome. Just in case, North Korea should reject any potential blanket shipments in the near future.

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This is the article i had read earlier

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I’m using this site. It looks linear to me…

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If you want a statistical look at this - these two articles by Andy Chen are worth a read:

First- to make any sort of estimates regarding this, we have to understand what sort of stats we are looking at.:

Secondly, don’t be misled by a naive reading of the latest figures:

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Excellent site. Thank you!

Viewing new cases on the logarithmic scale shows that while still increasing, the Chinese appear to be making some headway over what would be a typical exponential infection rate. At least they are slowing it a bit…

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China is stopping the sale of cough syrup etc. to force people to go to hospitals:

Drastic measures.

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Just add a velvet divan, then it’ll be classy enough to finally invite the neighbors over to play board games.

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Maybe. I hope you’re right. But the non-China line does not look the same. And, as previously shown, the Chinese government cannot be trusted to report accurately or timely. It is highly likely that they are tampering with the reported statistics. So, I am skeptical as to the true curve of that line.

One note on that graph. Today is 10FEB and they have a rightmost dot at 11FEB. That dot is level to the 10FEB dot, which gives a false impression of leveling. Just ignore it.

I am expecting:
-many tens of thousands more cases
-the proportion of mortality to rise from its current 2%
-that death ship in Japan is towed out to sea and the people trapped there until they all die… except for that 1 person who manages to survive
-mutations in the virus appearing in a few weeks
-some third-world country catching it, such as North Korea, and becoming a second epicenter

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That is almost certain, even not accounting for the fact that hospitals have not been confirming new cases because they ran out of the tests necessary to confirm them.

Apparently coronaviruses are actually much less prone to mutate than many other kinds, so at least that’s hopeful.

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Then I’d have to take down all the black plastic lining the walls…

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I think Trump and his Cabinet should visit China.

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I think that 2% Case Fatality Rate number is wildly low.

  1. For all the statistical reasons stated in the the Andy Chen article (see above: Novel Coronavirus Case-Fatality Is Not Good).
  2. The reported deaths (1,013) vs. recoveried (3,946) are a more equal measurement in time than the deaths vs infected numbers (since the many of the infected may still die).
  3. For all we know, there could be hundreds of unreported deaths who have died at home alone and have not been discovered (i.e. Kodokushi).
  4. We can’t trust the Chinese numbers as accurate.

The North Korea scenario would be devastating beyond comprehension…

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Oh that’s no problem, just install a black light and your neighbors will be eager to help you tear it all down and then shower!

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They thought it was snakes and then they thought it was bats and then they thought it was pangolins. Well… what’s next? Civets? Wombats? Flamingoes? I don’t think they know where it exactly came from, and since they don’t, the possibility of a mutated one from its original host is still high. And hopefully it stays true to expectations and doesn’t mutate in humans.

Totally agree. We ain’t seen nothin yet.

Shivers… egads.

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I think we can’t know that yet. There are ways that it could be either low or high at this point. That said, even 2-3% has the potential to be as bad as the Spanish flu

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