I think the “Oxford vaccine” has been reported to protect monkeys, which doesn’t prove it’s also going to work in humans, but it’s an encouraging sign.
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Deaths are seriously logging indicators, and there are now states (looking at you FL) doing steps to decrease reporting of deaths. Also, take note of a recurring pattern, Sat, Sun, Mon show decreasing deaths and new cases, Tues jumps up then the rest of the week tails off to the weekend slump again. My estimate (mine, I implicate no-one else) is that we have a fairly flat curve right now due to the extreme measures taken. In an analogy that I think is fairly accurate:
“The good news is that the parachute has slowed our descent to a survivable rate. Of course, that means that now is the time to take it off.”
Should we do so, (remove the restrictions) the virus will come roaring back. This is a given.
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The word “completely” is doing a lot of work in that sentence. If you drop it and just leave “effective,” then it is very reasonable to say there will be an effective vaccine deployed to the public by no later than the middle of 2021. There are well over 100 vaccines in various stages of development and testing, and of the handful that are already in clinical trials, at least 3 vaccine strategies are represented: 1. Non infectious antigen (which causes the immune system to produce antibodies to the virus); 2. Directly coding immune cells to produce antibodies; 3. Programming killer T cells directly to target the virus.
So it’s not so much “pulling a number out of their ass” as holding a very strong hand in a game of poker and betting that your four aces will take the pot. It’s not 100%, but it is a very high probability.
Just because human contact and interaction has to change doesn’t mean it has to go away. Our greatest strengths as a species lie in our ability to adapt and work collaboratively.
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Lockdown. It works.
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V_c=(1-1/R_0)/E
In the case of R_0=3.0, and E=0.8, the critical vaccination coverage would need to be 83%, rather than 66% in the case of a completely effective vaccine.
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Well, that just shows they’re as rubbish at maths as they are at being humans.
The longest sustained period of prosperity and growth coincided with high progressive taxes and comparatively low wage inequality.
Coincidence?
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B-But we’re still 10,000 ft above the ground…
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Exactly! Freedooooooooooooooooooooooooooo…mmmmmmmmph
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Having all Londoners gather together in the tube stations during air raids actually reinforced their morale.
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