Coronavirus second wave in winter 2020 could be worse, CDC director warns

Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2020/04/21/a-second-wave-of-coronavirus-i.html

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Pretty much guaranteed to happen now that Trump has given the go ahead for red state’s Governors to hastily open up businesses again. Without extensive testing and/or an imminent vaccine, this is just leading sheep to future slaughter.

Another eerie parallel to the the 1918 pandemic. Almost exactly the same timelines and responses. First wave of Spanish Flu hit in spring of 1918 with the explosion of the cases and most deaths happening in the second wave Sep-Nov.

It’s like we don’t even try learning from history anymore.

image

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I think the push to re-open businesses is all about denying unemployment claims to displaced workers. If you stayed at home for safety’s sake while your workplace was technically supposed to be open, well,then you arent really unemployed, are you?

Fuckin’ butchers. The covid testing, tracking and tracing setup needs to be in place first. then you can tell people to get back to work!

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and that’s from a trump kiss-ass

we’re not making it to november, they certainly aren’t going to let everyone vote by mail

has this ditty been posted yet

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-21/barr-says-doj-may-act-against-governors-with-strict-virus-limits

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There’s a Virus
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Is it possible to have a Freudian slip while reading? I’ve started misreading “federal” as “funeral”…

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Welp, there goes the November election…

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Unlike influenza, I don’t understand the idea of a second wave of covid not happening until winter. If isolation is being dismantled now, it seems like a wave is coming in the next month and will remain indefinitely barring future restrictions.

Getting a break until winter seems oddly optimistic.

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broadchurch-sad|nullxnull

Yep.

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I’m definitely no expert but my take away from different sources is that the virus has some “intelligence” in that over time it mutates in such a way as to not kill too many all at once, so it can spread even further. Infections therefore come in waves.

Essentially, it infected a bunch of people. Some died, defying the purpose of the virus which is to spread and continue its life cycle.

After the first wave the virus mutates, becoming a “softer” version of itself as it sort of “hibernates”.

As the virus continues to mutate “under the radar” it eventually becomes more virile with increased symptoms like wheezing and coughing, so that it can infect more people again before it becomes too virile, killing the hosts. Then it dials itself back down again and repeats the cycle.

Also, this particular strain (as other virus’ do) MAY have some sensitivity to ambient temperatures because it has fats that coat the outer membrane, making it susceptible to drying out when exposed to the environment. So in fact while summer heat is not hot enough to really kill the virus, it may make it harder for it to spread on surfaces. But there are no hard studies AFAIK at this time; take this info with a grain of salt.

If anyone has more/ better info please respond because 1) I don’t want to spread misinformation and 2) the lifecycle of the virus has become a bit of a dark fascination of mine as I try to fill in the holes and separate good and bad info in this “misinformation age” we all live in.

Edit SP

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I’ve been doing a lot of research into the 1918 flu pandemic and the scary parallels to what’s happening today - not only from an epidemiological point of view but also socially and politically.

Too many similarities to comment on here but one of the more fascinating parts is how the influenza virus 100 years ago and now COVID-19 today are manifesting themselves in very strange ways which go far beyond how a typical “mild” virus should act.

A big factor is the rate of mutation - flu mutates very fast while so far, scientists have seen a relatively slow mutation rate for COVID-19. While this should make an eventual vaccine more effective and stable, it also means the virus has the potential to mutate “away from the mean” - ie: it could get even more virulent and deadly as it moves through the human population instead of milder (which is what happened in 1918). This means a second wave could be even worse than what we’ve already seen.

The flip side of this is that the longer the virus is in the population the more people develop immunity so eventually, herd immunity will develop but it could be months or even years before this happens. A vaccine is still our best chance for returning to normal anytime soon.

All RNA-based viruses mutate so this is actually expected but it’s impossible to predict exactly which way this will go. We should definitely use any reprieve we get over the summer to prepare ourselves for the worst case scenario - stockpile more PPE, ventilators, continue social distancing, etc. We’re not out of the woods with this thing yet and it’s distressing to see so many of leaders already spiking the ball so short of the goal line.

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Cool video for its art. But I don’t think the viruses emanate constantly like perfume. Occasional explosions like mist spray bottle squirts would be more accurate. And less scary.

Thanks for the link. I’m going to jump on it as soon as I’m through with work.

It’s good to look to the past a learn from previous mistakes. I agree that a vaccine is the only thing that will allow us to return to normal even though some “normal” things some things may “never be normal again”.

At this point we don’t even know how long immunity lasts once you’ve been infected and recovered. Some indications are that you may only be naturally immune for a few months. That would cut down on the effectiveness of herd immunity in the time before we can formulate a vaccine.

I feel like it’s also important to point out to people that a vaccine for this particular bug isn’t a vaccine like we have for measles or something.

A vaccine for COVID would resemble our current flu “vaccines” which have to be re-formulated every year and may or may not work depending on virus mutations between creation and mass production and regional differences.

I’ve read that it’s quite possible that we’ll have a “flu and COVID season” instead of just a regular flu season.

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The reports of the virus causing strokes in younger victims, and permanent heart damage, again in younger victims- gives me pause when trying to plan how this “should” go. The vaccine might not come on schedule, or at all. Our federal government may never gain the willpower to make massive testing possible.

And it’s that very uncertainty that hurts the most.

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Our federal government in its current form definitely lacks the will to do anything about the problem. If I hear one more person (state or federal) call for business to open and quarantine to end then respond to the question “well what’s the plan for this to happen?” With “I don’t know, I’m not a business owner.” I will fucking scream. Clearly there is no plan and clearly they are simply trying to pawn off responsibility for any failures (deaths and mass infections) off on the businesses and individuals. That’s seriously fucked up. I agree man. What we need more than anything right now, maybe even more than tests and PPE etc is some god damned leadership. We’re flying blind and basically fucked without it.

Even worse though is that anyone who takes the reigns and shows any ingenuity in resolving this problem is immediately shut down, put down, criticized, chastised, hobbled and in’s some cases our right punished for showing up our “brilliant orange dictator”.

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The CDC’s guide to the legal authority for social distancing orders

https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/aboutlawsregulationsquarantineisolation.html

https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/specificlawsregulations.html

the liberty secured by the Constitution of the United States to every person within its jurisdiction does not import an absolute right in each person to be, at all times and in all circumstances, wholly freed from restraint.-Jacobson v. Massachusetts (1905)

(or why astroturf plague spreaders should shut their lying pieholes)

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Exactly. But I think there is also a component of securing commercial rents. It’s a full employment act for landlords and REITs.

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there is a plan. Its not crazy.

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