Double jeopardy?
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[quote=“lava, post:38, topic:191322”]
The Republican Party will suffer harm either way. The only question is whether they will suffer short-term harm by alienating Trump supporters now or greater, long-term harm by putting off the inevitable even longer.
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I think you are mistaking quarter century old common wisdom for something that is still true.
Yes, centrist democrats and republicans share some opinions about neoliberal economics, but there’s a huge gulf. Democrats want to govern, but republicans want everything deregulated and most of the government gutted. Even the business republicans. A lot of them also seem to have non-trivial sympathies with the theocrats (even if it’s mostly lip service to use culture war issues as wedges).
Mind you, I don’t necessarily think democrats will govern well, but it’s a dramatic step up from “turn country into cyberpunk hellscape expecting that we[rich republicans] get to stay on top and live in the nice parts”.
I definitely agree with @Ryuthrowsstuff that we’re at the end of an alignment, and there aren’t people who are going to switch parties. I mean. Which republican senator would change sides or declare themselves independent at this point?
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I think you have a handful. Though most of that handful have dutifully retired to the “you know I just couldn’t vote for a Democrat” excusing fascism circuit.
What I don’t buy is that a half to a third of Republican politicians would be willing to merge with any portion of the DNC, or vice versa. Or that either end of the voters would swallow that.
ETA: Neither is this how realignments or party splits go down. One party collapses, realignment follows. Often decades later. In this case decades where boomers fade from the electorate, replaced by significantly more liberal generations. And our population and voter base become majority minority.
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There’s always a “…but, still…”
I was trying to explain this to my father earlier. I said something about this killing the GOP’s chances long term. He immediately began with the “I don’t know” talking about 2022 and how all of the proud boys are my age and that says they have the young people. I am in my late 30’s.
Hadn’t occurred to him to consider what it meant ten years down the line. Or what kids watching this all go down, who will learn the details of an insurrection lead by a GOP president as part of a high school history class will think of the party. What high school and college students now, already far to the left of his generation and far more supportive of Democrats. Forming long term political attachments right now. Will take from this.
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There already kinda is. Sanders and King are both independents who caucus with the Dems. You could quickly add several others to that list if it became viable. It wouldn’t be as ugly as a GOP split, with both factions working and caucusing together, but there is a far, far gap between Joe Manchin and Bernie Sanders.
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That pathetic, evil little man. Seriously, how fucked up of a person are you to set up thousands of people to die in a few minutes’ time, including people supporting you? That is a mental state nearly all of us cannot actually grasp.
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Two people. One who has pretty much never been a Democrat, barring his presidential runs. And one who has been an independent for 20 years. Do not a collapsing party make. Or really even represent current developments
Both have fifty year careers in politics.
These guys are the, to be really blunt, remains of previous realignments. Both started out right around when the American left first started to struggle with the electorate. Sanders as a leftist. And King as a “moderate”. King left the party in the early 90’s at the peak of the right wing shift in the American population. Both are from almost entirely white, mostly rural states in the North East.
What we are not seeing is any serious talk, even speculative, of a group of politicians. Some with leadership positions, splitting off to form a new party. The DNC’s share of the electorate, demographics and their coalition are expanding, rather than contracting like the Republicans. And it’s growing in the South, urban areas and among Non-whites. While there’s some factional back and forth, we’re generally not seeing voters who prefer one faction to the other flat out refuse to vote for the other faction’s candidates. Or flat out refuse to vote at all, to “punish” their own party. Like with Republicans.
We’re not seeing sub parties crop up Tea Party or Freedom Caucus style, sworn to a particular leader. And no The Squad does not count. Or a mass exodus of major donors (growth there for the DNC is coming from a particular direction too, and it’s not Joe Manchin).
More over the party is largely behind a consistent policy pitch, which is winning over the public. And slowly taking hold at the policy level, despite the party being in the minority the last 4 years, an antagonistic federal bench and so forth. Internal debate is mostly about how and how far. Not what.
There isn’t a huge, divisive, generational issue the party is irrevocably split over, which you often see in these sorts of break ups. No slavery, or civil rights act equivalent. No Trump.
And most of all we’re not seeing Democrats flat out wish death on members of their own caucus, or excuse those who participated in the attempt. We’re not seeing large public protests against Democrats, by Democrats because so and so “betrayed” some body.
i think you’re right. especially because it’s the exactly the sort of maddening reverse projection that has worked so well in the past.
( i’m sure there will also be a lot of antfia violence videos coming up for the whataboutism effect. )
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except that they know they can’t win by playing fair and square at the ballot box, so at least a decent few wanted this to happen.
not the second impeachment mind you, but the stealing of the vote. in their world, trump should be president right now. democracy is an impediment to getting the country to work the way they want.
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Alienating Trump supporters is a small harm, and in 2022 or 2024 could affect somehow, but could be contained with some other means, like Fox news. On the other hand having the party following the far right part will alienate the moderate conservatives: they should’nt stay in a party where a part of the party supports killing other party members.
And if the Republican Party splits center?
A Christian (Catholic) Party, so they of course are following the selling point of Republicans on abortion, divorce, premarital sex.
And tells them what to do about it and that he’ll be right there with them.
Yes, the warning flags were there.
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I think they’d be better served by impeaching trump, throwing him out of the party and let the wing nuts start from scratch.
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You seem blind to democratic voting leftists that are fed up with the DNC status quo. If you don’t think they will walk the moment the GOP fractures you are being very wishful of a democratic dominance that does not exist.
except they just reelected trump loyalists to lead the rnc, and the party’s platform is currently, literally, “support trump”
most likely they’ll form something like the working families party which only sometimes has its own candidates, and instead usually supports specific primary candidates and specific issues. ( for working families, that’s typically pro union or pro farming )
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I suspect they fear it is too late for that.
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