Democrats take House, GOP tightens grip on Senate


#201

I’d hope that at least the regulars around here would know me well enough to know that I strive to be aware of these issues… :wink:


#202

We sure as hell do! :+1:


#203

I’m happy you think so. It means a lot, coming from you.


#204

The postmortems keep rolling in:

It appears that the gains were in districts that used to be reliably GOP:

This will have some impact on the question of who should run for 2020, as the candiates who appeal in these districts tend to be more moderate than the ones in, say, the Bronx.


#205

On the other hand, all the wealthiest districts have been flipped already, so what we need to do is to focus into the low and middle income districts, especially since there are a lot more of those. Appealing to the rich could be counterproductive.


#206

They need to stay flipped.
For example, (from the story) VA 7th was 6 points for Trump in 2016 (and even more for Romney in 2014), but voted for Spanburger not because a surge in voters in the democratic parts of the district (like Richmond) but because the voters in the middle-class suburban areas switched party for this election/candidate.


#207

There’s also the point that Heitkamp, McCaskill and Donnelly all lost their seats. It wasn’t a great election for DINOs.

Of the districts that flipped, does anyone know what proportion came from GOP-controlled states?

I’m trying to get an idea how much was successful resistance of redstate voter suppression vs how much was just cleaning out the last of the moderate bluestate GOP.


#208

That would be nice, but I would not mind losing a few rich districts in order to win a sizeable number of low and middle-income districts.

I found this map of districts grouped by income:

It seems to me that, with a few exceptions, the richest districts are in blue states. Getting more votes in California is not going to help the Democrats win more seats on the Senate or the Electoral College.


#209

There needs to be some evidence that the latter would happen. This evidence might or might not exist, but until it does I think all claims about how to attract such voters need be viewed as statements of faith. I’m still hoping someone will produce numbers about the relative success of insurgent candidates (versus centrist candidates who survived insurgent challenges) this last election.

I found this map of districts grouped by income:

It seems to me that, with a few exceptions, the richest districts are in blue states.

This has been clear or some time. The data looked at in this article are about districts that changed this election in states like Virginia. We really need to understand the dynamic in places like this.

Getting more votes in California is not going to help the Democrats win more seats on the Senate or the Electoral College.

Yikes, let’s not emulate HRC in taking any states or districts for granted!


#210

These were not DINOs. They were conservative democrats. McCaskill, for example, strongly supported both of the last two Democratic presidential candidates, opposed Trump’s tax cuts, opposed right-to-work in Missouri, supported immigrant rights including DREAM, supported ACA, supported gun control, had a 100% endorsement from Planned Parenthood. And you dismiss her as a DINO? Sheesh.


#211

Gotta keep that edge, especially when it’s basically a spectator sport!

Love the Pelosi Perfidy Parsing Police, worrying over each of the would-be speakers comments for the inevitable knife-in-the back. Nevermind that any bill the House passes in the next two years, even Medicare For All, will be bipartisan by definition, as it will need to both passed by the Senate, and signed by the president. Nevermind that that same principle means that there will be no defecit spending that Republicans don’t want, so Democrats would be wise to focus on self-funding bills ie PayGo. Nevermind that this lady has proven her bonafides time and again, refusing to consider cutting Social Security in 2006 and delivering the public option to the Senate in 2009

Come off it


#212

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