I’m assuming that Turmp will win, and consciously trying not to let poll reporting deflect me from that. When I said this the other day, the Agreeement Squad agreed I was a morally suspect imbecile, which is fair enough, but I still don’t see an upside to letting yourself think Biden will win. It won’t make it sweeter if he does, but it will make it a lot worse if he doesn’t.
It’s not just about managing your emotions over the next week (though that’s no small thing). If Biden wins, you shouldn’t retrospectively feel like you were in no danger. You should feel like someone swung a chainsaw at your head, and you barely managed to dodge out of the way, and that person is still there, winding up for their next swing. I don’t like the thought that we should live in permanent terror of elections, but I think we’d be silly not to.
If you think its silly to not live in permanent terror, then we must have a drastically different idea of what either the word “silly” or “terror” means
Everyone who has been pointing out that these odds are far from zero is absolutely correct, and given the consequences of a potential 2nd term for Trump we absolutely need to behave the same way we would if the polls showed the candidates being neck-and-neck. But still, I admit that I’m able to retain just a bit more sanity today knowing that the projection is finally showing Trump with a less than 10% chance of victory:
Something that I’m not hearing enough that was said on NPR recently:
Don’t expect to know anything on election night. It may take weeks or even months to count the votes. There will be court cases around the Safe Harbor date in December because there isn’t time to count on all the mail-ins. They said we should think of it not as “election night but “election quarter”. Prepare to live with uncertainty for a while, which is stressful.
As cepheus42 points out, they’d need 2/3rds in the Senate, which even with the bluest tsunami, the Democrats probably can’t get without Republican defectors.
It has the advantage of not running through the order of secession, like an impeachment/conviction after the electoral college tally would.
That’s a really good metaphor for current situation.
I understand, but living in terror won’t help with anything. It’s better to fight for change like your lives depend on it, because they really do this time. And it’s the same in nearly every country where fascism or authoritarianism is gaining popularity right now (sadly this includes my home country too).
If this story makes you anxious, and it should, there’s still plenty one can do that isn’t doom-scrolling.
Biden still can use people making calls. And there are a shit ton of state and local races for good people who still need folks to step up. Google your state and local races to see who is asking for help, and give it to them!
A 10 percent chance of winning, which is what our forecast gives Trump, is roughly the same as the odds that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)
I am firmly in the @bobtato camp. Believing there’s only a 10% chance of Trump winning when Trump only trails Biden by 8.5% in the national polls is not negativity.
Right now, I think I need to sit and breathe for about 15 minutes, come back to a centered place as much as I can. Concentrate on right now, and try to get some work done. I am struggling today with the anxieties of the last year with Covid, the last 4 years with Trump… all coming to a head today, probably going to intensify through tomorrow. I feel like I am awaiting execution. Not that I would know what that’s like. But I feel this dread and yet a fighting spirit, like, “Let’s kick his ass into next Sunday!” Very unsettled.
I urge all of you to take care of yourselves, however you know best. If we are feeling it, then all of our friends and family are too. Let’s just do our best to get through the next 36 hours.
