Correction…you mean POLICE riots on peaceful protestors.
" Why are you in riot gear? I don’t see no riot here!"
Best. Chant. Ever.
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So it’s more like: could the headline please be “Don’t trust cynical pundit maps that make this a close thing, Biden is walking it right now in battleground states”
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Yes, it was like betting against a single die rolling a 1 or 2. It certainly can happen, so it’s not a surprise that it did.
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I used 10% when I built my own. I wasn’t going for a methodologically sound prediction, since as you say there isn’t a good formal margin on an average of polls. That shouldn’t matter though, since the goal isn’t to use a map like this predict a final outcome, it’s more of a leaning of the current opinion on what’s going on. I ended up with 216 Biden - 214 Battleground - 108 Trump.
A picture like that does tell us something though. It’s looks like traditionally deep blue states are still blue, traditionally deep red states are still red, but that a lot of more mildly one way or the other states are all in play. As of right now, it looks like there’s a lot more of the country land mass that could go either way. Along with, Trump is playing catch up not defending a lead as the incumbent.
Of note:
Only 3 states within 10% have a candidate with 50%+.
Only 13 states have a candidate with 50%+.
Only 1 state has a candidate with 60%+.
There’s no landslide right now either way, it’s very down the middle.
Which reinforces that “pundit land” is absurd.
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Um, how are we all really feeling about the term “race riots” these days?
I’m not thinking it’s quite the right way to describe what’s happening, but maybe I’m out of it
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Yes, that’s been true of every race riot in history.
An aside, but relevant. Burning down a police station polls higher than Biden or Dolt 45!
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The electoral-vote.com site publishes charts accounting for this very distinction
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I’ve always been skeptical of Texas maps that show it up for grabs. Every election cycle I see people in Austin saying that this could be the year Texas flips, and every year the state votes solidly R. For reference the last time Texas elected a Democrat president was 1976, and that election was an exception due to the Republican candidate. If they didn’t vote for Obama, especially in 2012, I wouldn’t expect them to vote for Biden. IIRC Trump carried the state by 10 points in 2016.
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So, you’re saying it’s possible? 
At 45.5% vs 46.0%, it looks like an unknown.
THIS could be the year. 
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Roger that! And the intown, black majority neighborhoods have those to contend with in abundance. All one needs do is look at the difference between north Fulton County (which is outside and north of the perimeter) and south Fulton (not to be confused with the city of South Fulton). One is white majority and one is black majority.
Also, it’s Brian Kemp… not that I care if you get his name right, but still. Let’s get his name right so we can call his ass out for his role in suppressing votes in my state.
Never the less, what Abrams did was pretty remarkable and the structures she built will help push the state back into the democratic camp. I doubt that Trump is going to get quite the same support from the more rural parts of the state, especially after his refusal to sign a bill that would have bailed out farmers in south GA, because it included $$$ for PR. Plus Trump’s immigration policy has been an unmitigated disaster for farmers who depend on migrant labor. Same with the debacle with tariffs against China. Since our previous governor, the state has been working to cultivate business ties in China, so that’s a problem for business growth. I’m betting lots of those farmers are not too pleased with him right now, even if they’re not saying as much and they’ll either not vote or actually vote for Biden.
I also should note that when I checked the returns for my own local elections, I noticed that far more democrats in our suburban county (a former GOP strong hold) voted than republicans voted (something like a 2 to 1 margin). I’m in a democratic district, but the one just above me will likely flip in the upcoming elections.
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I am completely OK with the overall message that the race is super close. It will force a lot of people to stand in lines and vote. The other option is we all stay home cuz we are confident the orange buffoon will lose.
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I’m saying the Texas polls severely and routinely undercount the rural counties. They may be too paranoid to talk to pollsters, but they definitely vote.
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The proprietor is Andy Tanenbaum, the Minix guy, so I’m sure he knows what he’s doing regardless
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Good example.
Last poll in Texas, 2016, was Marist and it put Trump at 49% and Clinton on 41%. The result on the day was Trump on 52% and Clinton on 43%.
In 2016, the last big “Texas turning Blue!” hype feast, the RCP Average before the election had Ted Cruz on 51% and Beto O’Rourke on 45%. On the day, Cruz won 51% and Beto got 48%.
2018 governor race, Abbott scored 55% in the last polls and got 55% on the day.
So in the past, the polls have not quite caught up to the idea of Texas turning blue, at least in these cases. And were accurate. Looks to me like Beto hype was often stastistical shenanigans such as imagining him and Cruz at opposite ends of the margin of error on the same poll.
So how’s it going in 2020? Currently, both Trump and Biden are both at 45% in Texas, according to the polling average there.
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Your snark aside…its your headline, do as you please. I am giving you the feedback, do with it as you like.
Given it makes me feel belittled. Thanks for that. I’ll remember that going forward.
I’m not being snarky, I’m literally asking you if you think that (in perhaps more concise form) would be a better way of headlining this post. I’m going to change it!
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Give me a friggin’ break Florida Man. I know you probably don’t like the rest of the country laughing at your stupid antics, but don’t toss this election again.
I have a funny feeling that there’s going to be at least one CAT4/5 coming this summer and FEMA has been defunded by this administration almost as much as the CDC so we’ll see how that works out. Floods in the midwest, fires in the southeast, and the Gulf coast nailed a few times. Let’s see how the shelters handle social distancing. And let’s see what a great leader we have to help unite everyone to get past this tragedy of a year.
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It’s hard to pack something about maps in there with also “Biden is actually way ahead in the polls”
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Biden winning the nomination already took care of that.
