Facebook shares plummet on tiny shortfall in predicted growth

[doctorow]

Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2018/07/26/short-facebook.html

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[Bunbain]

@doctorow

but three allows for four different connections, and four faxes allows for eight, and so on

Am I not missing something here or can somebody explain how this works?

[karl_jones]

This is symptomatic of the larger problem: organizations wish* to grow forever, infinitely. Much like people wish to grow infinitely wealthy, and live forever.

(*Anthropomorphic fallacy, I know.)

[Bunbain]

@doctorow

When you #DeleteFacebook, you make it easier for the people in your friend group to do so as well, because you are no longer part of the reason to continue using the service.

This is the key part and I encourage anyone not on Facebook to make an effort to foster meaningful relationships with others so that they may see how Facebook just “gets in the way.” Even if it’s only a couple good friends.

[doogly]

@Bunbain

@doctorow

but three allows for four different connections, and four faxes allows for eight, and so on

Am I not missing something here or can somebody explain how this works?

It doesn’t. The maximum number of connections is given by the triangular numbers, so for example with 4 users the max connectivity is 6.

[Bunbain]

Indeed, so proportional to the square of users and not “exponential.”

[stanestane]

Maximal number of connections of N nodes is equal to N(N-1)/2. Intuitively it can be understood as follows. Each of N nodes can make connection with N-1 other nodes, as connection to itself would be trivial. Each connection has two nodes so it should be counted only once, thus division by 2.

This is not equivalent to everyone having a FB account. It is equivalent to everyone having everyone else as a FB friend.

[stanestane]

Well 2 is exponent so in that sense…

[Bunbain]

Yeah, so n(n-1)/2 doesn’t fit my understanding of what it means to “double” or to “halve,” i.e., 2^n is a completely different animal from n^2.

[stanestane]

n(n-1)/2=(n^2 - n)/2 First 2, one in n^2 is an exponent in this case. So yes it grows by the square of nodes. Square by definition is an exponent, not much of an exponent but still an exponent. As pointed out already Cory got it wrong in original post. It’s not 2^n.

[gracchus]

The corollary of Metcalfe’s Law is that every time you subtract a member from a network, its value drops in half, along with the number of possible connections. When you #DeleteFacebook, you make it easier for the people in your friend group to do so as well, because you are no longer part of the reason to continue using the service.

It can become a fast-moving syndrome that can literally decimate the user base in the space of a few months, as we saw with MySpace and the walled-garden on-line systems that preceded the Web and popular use of Internet.

Here’s hoping that happens with FB. I wish there more instances of federated services like Diaspora and Mastadon that replicate one-stop-shop social network functionality out there so that there was more adoption by people leaving toxic services like FB and Twitter. However, there are plenty of existing and widely used services (e-mail, SMS, RSS, photo-sharing sites, event/invitation sites) that can be used an alternatives to various pieces of FB functionality with a little education.

[Sludge]

Perspective though.

[YetiLives]

[incarnedine_v]

Yeah that chart in the story is misleading as hell. It’s just down to what the stock was at the beginning of the year.

[gracchus]

It’s the precipitous and potentially historic 19% drop and the implication of volatility and end of steady growth that’s disturbing people in the market. Anyone who watches the tech sector is aware of FB’s many problems and its inability or unwillingness to address them and some of them think the stock is reaching its proper level and are cashing out for the moment.

[AnthonyI]

I don’t think facebook has a bright future when it comes to the direction of the internet. I’m thinking specifically of the grand plan behind the Brave browser, using a reward system that eliminates the middle man when it comes to online advertisement. All ads are determined by the browser itself, and none of your personal info escapes your device. At least in theory. It’s being piloted right now and I do hope it works well.

[anon32019413]

The stock today is likely well below what it will be worth in 2 years. So I’d argue that the market overcorrected. But man, anyone who shorted Facebook really made out like a bandit.

[heligo]

@doctorow

Analysts predicted that Facebook would average 1.48B daily users, but their latest quarterly figures showed only 1.47B dailies; their projected earnings were $1.33B, but they only turned in $1.32B, and they were expected to earn $5.97/user but only earned $5.95/user – and so their shares dropped 24% (they’re slightly up from that, but still down 20%).

Yep this is definitely the beginning of the end

[Slant]

Exactly. Just for the sake of argument, let’s suppose FB has 7B people signed up tomorrow. Then what? Do they start a campaign to: 1) somehow ultra-fertilize everyone; 2) ban contraceptives; and 3) incentivize fucking? We need more population, and fast!

[mr_raccoon]

You’re telling me young people don’t want to join a social media site that allows their older relatives spam them nonstop with Farmville notifications, anti-vax articles, birther rants and other fringe conspiracy stuff all while having to hear them bitch and moan about young people these days too? Shocking.