Look, let’s just all of us take an hour today and practice the following visualization: BIDEN LANDSLIDE!!! BIDEN LANDSLIDE!!! BIDEN LANDSLIDE!!! because honestly anything else is going to be a bigger nightmare than we care to imagine.
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Of course I’m hoping for a Biden landslide, but my secondary hope is…
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100 million early votes already in. Its a hopeful sign as any. Large turnouts do not generally favor Republicans. Fingers crossed.
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That turtle I feel sorry for. The one in the Senate, not so much.
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Delay yes. But there are hard deadlines all over. State deadlines to certify election results, if the electoral college can’t render a result after the 14th it goes to the house. And Trump’s term ends on the 20th.
States run risks in terms of seating congressmen and other offices if they fuck around.
I don’t think we’ll be twiddling our thumbs waiting on a clear results. Either we’ll kno who won or we’ll know it’s fucked inside of a day or two.
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“… but you’re not helping. Why is that?”
“Because it’s Mitch McConnell.”
“Oh, fair enough, you’re human.”
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FWIW, fivethirtyeight actually publishes calibration plots from time to time. A calibration plot is a graph where the x axis is “Percent likelihood we assigned some occurrence,” and the y axis is “If you count up all the times we assigned the same likelihood, what percentage of them actually happened.” Like, if you give 10 events a 70% likelihood and 7 of them happen, you’re well calibrated, so if your calibration plot is just the line y=x it means you are accurately estimating your own level of knowledge and certainty. It doesn’t mean “no one could have done better and given more accurate predictions,” it means “to do better we need more data or a better model but we’re not making any obvious mistakes with the ones we’ve got.”
I really wish everyone who made public forecasts regularly had to publish plots like this. Anyone poorly calibrated you should ignore, or at least apply an appropriate correction to any likelihood numbers based on past data.
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I swear it had Biden at 90 when I last looked at the actual forecast graphic, but it is indeed 89 now so I’ve corrected it.
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Good luck everyone. Fingers are crossed.
There were more mail-ballots cast in Texas alone than in the entire last election.
Being in Texas (not a native Texan myself, although one of my native Texan children was able to vote this year) I was curious about this knowing that there was a certain amount of back and forth about mail-in voting this year (the Texas supreme court determined that fear of the pandemic was not sufficient reason to request a mail-in ballot, although technically the reason for a mail-in ballot request cannot be challenged/checked . . .). So I searched.
I found that there were 9.7 million early votes this year, up from 8.9 million total votes in 2016. And the breakdown was about 8.7 million in-person early votes and 1 million mail-in. At least in Harris county the early voting was via electronic voting machines so I assume the counts from those should be available pretty quickly and “only” 1 million early mail-in votes need manual counting for what it’s worth.
data was from TexasTribune early voting tracker
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