That’s a really good question. The most immediate impact will be on linear TV and streaming, without movies impacted much later after that. Will people stop tuning in or even cancelling their subscriptions, or will the majority simply keep to their habits and possible discover the older and less promoted stuff on services?
Or will low-cost unscripted content “save the day” for the studios? Especially if SAG doesn’t strike and actors at all levels need something to do.
I’m just frustrated it’s even come to questioning it. They’re playing chicken with people’s lives.
The studio executives are behaving like cartoonish, moustache-twirling villains that no self-respecting writer would create. I look forward to many of them being kicked out of their jobs months down the line because the sacred quarterly numbers reflect the fact that their greed led to a dearth of quality content and lowered viewership.
As much as that would be a satisfying conclusion, I doubt that will be the scenario.
The studio heads had many months of planning and war gaming. Forget letting actors and writers live out in the streets in October, they’ll willing to put off an deal until at least March. The studio and television heads’ businesses is getting eyes on screens. Yes, Conover was right to say (in that video a few comments up) that reality tv writers and game show workers are going to have to sit out along with the rest of the writers and actors. But they have even more programming options these days.
They have both a massive backlog of content and a willing to pour cash into stunt programming and events. In the previous major strike, CBS aired (an heavily edited cut of) Dexter. Terrestrial tv stations could possibly do the same thing with their massive catalog of shows thanks to those studios knowing to hoard up all of those shows. Fox Networks don’t give a crap because they hoarded up Fox Nation shows which many of them are non-union made. Award shows have been struggling for many years ratingswise, so losing them wouldn’t be that big of a huge loss.
Advertisers are less pressed to help either side of the strike because since the last major strike they have an much more diverse environment to advertise in. Why stress themselves to get crime procedurals back on the air when they can use that effort and cash to pay instagrammers, tiktokers, youtubers and twitch streamers to promote and endorse products instead. Heck this strike might end up being an awesome and much needed boon for a struggling esports scene after the recent crypto drama and struggling tech company issues that hurt them. I can totally see a major network attempting to air a Valorant or Apex Legends tournament on nights when they don’t have a football or baseball game airing. Heck they might even outright pay a twitch streamer to have a call in show to air in place of Kimmel, Fallon and Colbert’s timeslots… for pennies on the dollar compared to those three. S̶o̶m̶e̶o̶n̶e̶ ̶l̶i̶k̶e̶ ̶M̶o̶i̶s̶t̶C̶r̶i̶t̶i̶k̶a̶l̶ ̶w̶h̶o̶ ̶o̶p̶e̶n̶l̶y̶ ̶s̶t̶a̶t̶e̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶t̶ ̶h̶e̶ ̶d̶o̶e̶s̶n̶’̶t̶ ̶l̶i̶k̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶d̶i̶r̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶t̶a̶l̶k̶ ̶s̶h̶o̶w̶s̶ ̶h̶a̶v̶e̶ ̶b̶e̶e̶n̶ ̶g̶o̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶w̶o̶u̶l̶d̶ ̶p̶r̶o̶b̶a̶b̶l̶y̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶m̶o̶r̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶n̶ ̶w̶i̶l̶l̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶s̶i̶d̶e̶r̶ ̶s̶u̶c̶h̶ ̶a̶ ̶d̶e̶al (edit: okay i’ll admit i’m wrong seeing how he’s openly backing the strikers). Big concert tv specials, sure. Stunt tv like the “opening” of Capone’s vault, Geraldo has the free time to make stuff like that again.
As much as I agree with the strikers, they have an much more uphill battle than most people realize.
Always something to produce for cheap, and I’m convinced that the habit of having something on the TV just to have something on the TV will persist. I’m not sure the habit of having the TV on in the background just to have something on has carried through to millennials and beyond like the radio habit that created the habit for boomers, but streaming content guarantees that something can be found for whenever someone wants that background noise. And those views will be considered justification for delaying making a deal.
During an appearance on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday morning, Disney CEO Bob Iger said that the writers and actors unions going on strike in Hollywood are not being “realistic” with their expectations.
Speaking to CNBC’s David Faber from the Sun Valley Conference in Idaho, Iger commented on the ongoing Writers Guild of America strike and imminent decision for SAG-AFTRA to join them.
“It’s very disturbing to me. We’ve talked about disruptive forces on this business and all the challenges we’re facing, the recovery from COVID which is ongoing, it’s not completely back. This is the worst time in the world to add to that disruption,” Iger said. “I understand any labor organization’s desire to work on behalf of its members to get the most compensation and be compensated fairly based on the value that they deliver. We managed, as an industry, to negotiate a very good deal with the directors guild that reflects the value that the directors contribute to this great business. We wanted to do the same thing with the writers, and we’d like to do the same thing with the actors. There’s a level of expectation that they have, that is just not realistic. And they are adding to the set of the challenges that this business is already facing that is, quite frankly, very disruptive.”
Disney gross profit for the twelve months ending March 31, 2023 was $28.739B, a 11.01% increase year-over-year. Disney annual gross profit for 2022 was $28.321B, a 27.07% increase from 2021. Disney annual gross profit for 2021 was $22.287B, a 3.62% increase from 2020.
Announcement at 3pm eastern which will most likely be the official start of the strike. Maybe by around that time we’ll have a dedicated thread for this particular strike.
I’m going to float the idea of cancelling Netflix and Disney with the family. I’d do it in a shot.
Actually…
That’s Disney done. That comes out of my personal rather than a family account so if they want it…
Fuck you Disney. Solidarity with the writers and directors.
And let’s all remember that time Disney bought Star Wars and all the profit that entailed but argued they hadn’t bought the responsibility to pay royalties to the writers of Star Wars novels.
However, I don’t think the executives have gamed this out to the degree where there will be a seamless transition when the content flow created by American writers and actors runs dry. We’ll start hearing complaints about how everything is reality TV and game shows. We’ll hear how a lot of the series from overseas – no matter how many home screens Netflix pushes them to – are falling flat with American audiences(especially when they have to conform to the content demands of more authoritarian regimes). There will be some disastrous experiments with AI and with social media “talent” as well. Revenues will temporarily fall.
That period will be relatively short and the studios will survive. However, those 9 months will be an eternity for the MBA set. Wall Street will look at the quarterly numbers and demand heads in exchange for keeping its money in. And while the CEOs will (probably) remain in place, a whole bunch of suits on the next tiers down will find themselves sacrificed.
Crabtree-Ireland said that “This ‘groundbreaking’ AI proposal that [the studios] gave [SAG] yesterday, they proposed that our background performers should be able to be scanned, get one day’s pay, and their companies should own that scan, their image, their likeness and should be able to use it for the rest of eternity on any project they want, with no consent and no compensation. So if you think that’s a groundbreaking proposal, I suggest you think again.”
