I believe that if you look at the polling in those key electoral-college ‘swing’ states, Sanders has substantial leads on Trump. Working-class voters are Sanders’ base, and he always does well with independents. These are exactly the demographics that Hillary Clinton could not inspire. Trump’s campaign featured many lies to these groups.
In short: Real (progressive) populism beats fake (right-wing) populism.
Clinton’s lead in the 2016 polls was always tight (around 4%), whereas Sanders’ lead is consistently in the 8% range you see in the current poll. But it’s really more about turnout. Clinton generated anti-enthusiasm and 100-million voters stayed home. Sanders’ generates Obama-style enthusiasm; voters will flock to the polls for him.
Having done this work for a while and after holding party leadership positions, I’ve noticed that an issue or candidate will energize people, they’ll show up and then disappear. Very few stick it out year after year without some determined coordination or some organization like a union. If you are a member of a group of some sort where you all share goals, it gets harder to just quit.
About 30 volunteers and I met after 2004 and our goals were to become friends, create a community around us of like minded progressives, learn the party ropes and take over leadership positions both inside and outside the party and, for some, -run for office. All of us are still active, some were elected, others lead campaigns or activist organizations, hold positions of leadership in the party and are generally well regarded in the Democratic and activist universes.
What surprised us was how unbelievably easy it was. Very few people volunteer -in our CD of a million people, maybe 300-400 people volunteer year in and year out and maybe a hundred or so hold leadership positions. I suspect this is the case just about everywhere, people being people. Often you can become a leader, because no one else wants to!
I guess this is why I get crabby with people standing on the outside complaining about “the party” not doing this or that. There are nowhere near enough volunteers to do everything that needs to be done. d_r, I think you’ll agree, being a volunteer, with the statement: “You think something ought to be done? Quit blathering, get yer butt moving and join us.”
With the Trumpocalypse nigh, if not now, when?
Or as Harry Truman said “Give people a choice between someone who acts like a Republican and a real Republican and they’ll pick the real one every time.”
I think there is support for Bernie even among rural Republicans. We saw some of that in 2016. Bernie’s kind of a one trick pony, talking about how the 1% controls the country, but that really resonates with people. It’s simple to understand and has the advantage of being true. We ignore this message at our peril.
The SurveyUSA poll looks like it is done well. 7000+ respondents, good distribution from all age groups and demographics.
There are certainly ways to monkey around with polls to get them to say what you want – i.e., polling only land lines and having a sample of elderly respondents that (good gosh!) say they’ll vote for Biden.
Only if voters don’t bother to vote in the primary.
It’s not up to him. He doesn’t have to sign anything or approve the results.
Whoever the Electoral College votes for in 2020 is the president in 2021. That’s how it works.
Nationwide poll results don’t matter at all. “If the election was held today” articles that don’t talk about the Electoral College are misleading propaganda.
In our nation’s 240+ year history we’ve never had a President who refused to recognize the outcome of an election, let alone one who had a long track record of selling his base nonsensical conspiracy theories about election fraud and the Deep State.
It would be naive to assume we’ll have a peaceful and orderly transition of power if Trump decides he wants to be the first President to deny us one.
ok i’m sure this is a joke that never got made before: maybe bernie would win but he’d die right after(old) and they’d have to puppet his corpse around. that is extremely unlikely to be pleasing to voters, we mostly elect actors they will vote for situations that seem uncinematic. there’s nothing cinematic about parading a corpse around and that’s why none about this have been made.
marianne williamson is the left of leo candidate who can harness the orb’s energy for a bit while we just like, relax, ok?
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