Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2020/03/12/bernie-sanders-wins-california.html
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I wonder how much this actually changes the delegate count - ie how many are delegates are allocated to each?
I think Bernie should stay in for one more debate and try to make a strong case that he is actually more electable than Joe Biden as I really believe he is. Personally I’m not a fan of either of these guys. Biden has a terrible history from opposition to school desegregation efforts, to attempts to cut or privatize social security to his misogynistic treatment of Anita Hill to his corporatist agenda, backing of the bankruptcy reform bill that screwed over average people to benefit banks, to his pledge to veto Medicare for All should it pass, to his idiotic vote for the Iraq War, and finally his inept campaign this election cycle that has put his dementia on public display.
We need a national primary that happens on the same day and uses ranked choice voting.
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It’s possible that by Sunday, the event will be canceled altogether.
You know what? I’m fine with that.
I’ve been a Sanders supporter in the past. But things have reached the point where I’d frankly rather not have the image of the last two folks with a good chance of beating Trump dragging each other through the muck fresh in people’s minds.
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The debate on Sunday will be a must watch. Biden better have some answers, Bernie gave him the cheat sheet several days ago…
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This result is not significantly different from the estimates the media were using before
To win on the first ballot, a candidate needs a majority of 3,979 delegates
As of right this minute, Biden has 21.8% of 3,979, and Sanders has 17.9% of 3,979
Biden has a 3.9% lead
The primary season is not even half over yet, and neither candidate is anywhere near 50%
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As I understand it, this debate will have no audience. So it could still happen easily enough, I guess.
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Brokered convention means super-delegates would vote, and more of them are either publicly pledged to Biden or have associations that would make you suspect they would go that way.
It is entirely possible that some super-delegates will vote their conscious based on the perceived health of Biden and the surrounding scandal (rightly or wrongly) around Hunter Biden that may distract both during the election and into Biden’s presidency. Still anybody’s game, but the professional betting odds look pretty grim for Sanders.
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I understand that the participation trophy he’ll get for this is super nice.
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If Biden were to win the win the nomination, I think his best bet would be to go very negative about Trump and corruption and very negative about Trump’s kids, very negative about Bill Barr, very negative about individual senate republicans, very negative about Kavanaugh. I think that if he were to get seriously nasty and say outrageous things to grab headlines - the same way Trump does - then he might have a chance to win.
I think he will run his campaign like it is still 2008 and he will lose and lose badly. He will say calm middle of the road things and people just won’t turn out to vote.
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Sadly, it probably would work. And the Republican Establishment (and Trump’s ~30% base) will cry foul, and whine that it’s not fair and dirty politics.
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He has a chance to win if the progressive Democrats and “leftists” hold their collective noses and vote for him vs stay home.
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For better or worse, that doesn’t really matter. The only states left with any significant delegate count are going to Biden without question. Michigan was realistically Bernie’s last stand and he got pounded. On top of that he didn’t have blowouts anywhere else that would give him the delegate haul needed to pull off a miracle. I’m saying this as an ardent Bernie supporter, but the fact is this race is over and Bernie’s best option is to confront Biden’s stances and push him further left as @Papasan is inferring (I think).
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It certainly looks like Biden’s to lose right now
but we all know Biden grotesquely humiliating himself for no reason sometime soon is not impossible
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True. I keep thinking that, but think it’s too late to have an impact on the Democratic nomination. Instead we’ll just get a repeat of the 2016 debates, except they’ll both be incoherent morons. I mean, I’ll still vote for him, but sheesh, it’s going to be really embarrassing.
Wait, what am I saying? There aren’t going to be any debates. Or election.
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Good fer you CA, now if I could only convince about 10 million of ya’ll to move to Texas we could really get some shit done.
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As my wife astutely pointed out to me yesterday a Biden win encourages the DNC to keep their thumb on the scale against the left forever and a continued shift of the Overton window further and further to the right.
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The margin may appear small now, but Sanders is going to get destroyed in Florida next Tuesday, and destroyed in Georgia the Tuesday after that. He has no path to victory. (No, I am not a Biden fan.)
I’m a professional gambler, and usually when there are widespread incorrect beliefs about the likelihood of future events, it’s an opportunity for me to make money. That isn’t the case this time - I’ve offered everyone I know 15:1 odds that Sanders won’t be the nominee, and no takers.
Online I would have to offer 50:1 odds to get action. $5000 to win $100. People willing to back their predictions with money are giving him a 2% chance of winning. I don’t think he has even a 2% chance, but with that little profit to be had, it’s not worth making the bet.
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The DNC is what democrats make of it.
It’s not to be confused with the DLC, which was a right of center pressure group.
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Bingo, our only hope is for Bernie to pull Biden to the left, we may just see M4All / $15 Min. Wage / etc. etc.
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Yes, for those who care or think it matters. The only way to win in November would be large numbers of non-voters voting, and that takes enthusiasm. Sanders is the only person running who had a chance of that. Uncle Joe isn’t going to pull them in in droves.
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