Yep, it can be true. I think that since we really can’t know at this point (and maybe never), I’m done with trying to sort out whether in this case, it was.
6 Likes
what candidate did they want? Honestly candidates particularly presidential ones feel like nothing more than a proxy for group of policies that I would prefer and hell it feels more like I’m actually voting against the proxy for a bunch of hateful policies that seem downright dangerous. I guess for the “elites” individuals who can be manipulated to return financially rewarding favors it is about something more.
I think we will never know. But if I learned anything from the last 5 years it is that it really doesn’t matter if there are things we can’t know right now or even in our lifetimes so much as it matters to decide how we are going to react to it quickly. People will be spinning stories about this for the rest of my life and more than half of them will be lies anyway. When did the plan start and why? Who was really onboard and who was participating in political kayfabe? Or was it that a vain stupid old man was finally ousted due to his poor performance?
I have believed and unbelieved so many lies in this lifetime I wonder if I’ve ever known a single thing even once sometimes.
12 Likes
Co-sign that x1000.
4 Likes
Mitt Romney would be hilarious.
3 Likes
Leaving in a huff, you’re doing it wrong.
6 Likes
Look, I don’t know about you, but I’d prefer my candidate be clearly up in the polls and not just " within the margin of error." And I have seen plenty of polls on the nightly news showing Biden getting edged out (which ever poll they are choosing to show). It does not instill confidence. Margin of error could mean hes losing even worse than a point.
If you felt confident on Biden winning in November, because of polls or otherwise, well that’s great. I wish I could have shared in your confidence. Regardless of the math - how people FEEL about polls affects reality.
A lot of politics isn’t based on objective numbers, but how people feel. I hope that people feel inspired to vote FOR Harris, because it doesn’t matter what any of us thought Biden’s chances were, they went another route and I hope it works out for them It certainly has shaken things up and created a buzz.
2 Likes
My point is that the polls are pretty much pseudoscience. They might give you a snapshot of what people home in the middle of the day and willing to talk to a stranger for a few minutes are thinking. It tells us nothing about the general electorate and what’s going to happen in November. They are possibilities, but not actual predictions. They are pointless data points meant to feed talking points to the chattering classes and drive discord among us.
What will help is people getting out and advocating for change, and supporting Harris’ campaign however they can. 
If we show up, we win. It’s as simple as that.
Polls aren’t math, they’re magical thinking through “math”…
As for confidence in Biden… I would have had confidence if people who wish to avoid fascism would rally around whoEVER the candidate is and support them. That’s what wins, not some bullshit dressed up as hard scientific data…
Much like polls.
14 Likes
The why matters, and the logical next steps, assuming a Dem administration, shouldn’t be controversial among progressives: get big money out of politics and tax the rich.
7 Likes
Biden hasn’t led in the polli[quote=“FSogol, post:76, topic:279733, full:true”]
That’s only true if you buy a lot of RW talking points.
[/quote]
His adminstration is very unpopular
You’ve seen the blowback against Silver, and yet you post something from 538, really?
7 Likes
The hard core cultists won’t change. What we need to change are all the chancers who see a patch to riches or power through cosying up to/selling their souls to Trump and his handlers.
We will never be free of them, but what we want is for them to be forced to channel their efforts into functioning within a legitimate democratic system. Democracies are many things, but a functioning democracy also helps to channel and contain the sociopaths. Which we need.
4 Likes
Nate Silver hasn’t been involved with 538 for over a year.
It is ok even if it is directed at me though anyway. I was really confrontational.
Like a lot of people I have found myself in the situation of having some amount of rights taken from me that pose an actual threat to me under a Democratic president whose administration I am left defending against a constant onslaught of the most ridiculous bullshit in both mass media, my personal life, and every online space I have accessed for years and it really has left me frayed and trying to avoid the internet for longer intervals while reconciling that something like protecting no-fault divorce is a progressive cause now.
If I feel Biden was somewhat undermined and betrayed a bit it’s because that is TRULY what I feel I witnessed though to some extent from within the party, for example from RFK’s contingent.
And I have been so shocked and disgusted by how comfortable some progressives are and have been lately with what has functionally been a regressive era too. It’s definitely gotten to me at this point.
18 Likes
Good on you for being self aware.
That said:
You’re still coming from a place of genuine concern and personal investment in the continuation of a functional, livable society.
It is my opinion that many commenters are not; they just want to “prove” that they are ‘right,’ and therefore, “better” than everyone else.
And again, I have lost whatever little patience I may have had for that bullshit.
This isn’t a fucking game, and it isn’t a "pissing contest, despite how many members here act like it is in perpetuity; the conversations we have here are about real life and the ongoing detrimental threats to that life.
13 Likes
Among right wingers and people who don’t actually pay attention, maybe… Objectively, he’s done some phenomenal work.
The MEDIA needs to be called out on this shit, not informing people, rather pushing right wing talking points (like, inflation is out of control, when in fact, we had negative inflation rates in June) in the name of so-called balance…
Well, but he’s an objective rational man, using objective rational means of weighing and measuring the world… everything else is just… vibes… /s
Doesn’t mean that it’s any better nowadays. It’s little more than medieval scrying…
11 Likes
Well stated. Hear hear!
I fully agree that the Biden administration should be more popular than it is. I think he was unfairly blamed for inflation which was mostly not his fault. However: the fact remains that if you look the polling, the Biden Administration is NOT popular. You can blame people that don’t pay attention to politics, but as that is the key chunk of the electorate: that’s a problem for the Democrats (and Harris in particular)
Or those with an incentive to spread as much FUD and misinfo as possible.
8 Likes
Except for the polls which say the opposite, which highlights the point that polls aren’t helpful.
The media is ACTIVELY pushing bullshit talking points in the name of “balance”… and since MOST people don’t have time to read deeply on what’s happening with the economy, in politics, etc, they depend on the media (watching the news, reading some headlines, etc) to accurately inform them, which they are not doing. Then people end up in some poll, but are woefully uninformed by the very same media DOING the fucking polls… it’s an endless cycle of disinformation.
THAT is the problem.
15 Likes
