Thanks. I note that even the NYT refers to “so-called breakthrough infections”. That is terminology that has not made it to the UK (yet) thankfully.
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The likelihood of not getting the covid on any given day would be 4999/5000. So on day one your likelihood of not getting covid would be 4999/5000. On the second day, your likelihood of not getting covid would also be 4999/5000 but you have to multiply this by probability that you didn’t get covid on the first day so your likelihood of not having covid would be (4999/5000) * (4999/5000). The odds of making it through three days without having covid would be (4999/5000) * (4999/5000) * (4999/5000) or (4999/5000)^3. The odds of making it through 365 days without getting covid would be (4999/5000)^365 which is about 92.959% which is slightly different than the 92.7% you would get if you just divide 365/5000 and subtracted it from 1, but they are both very close to a 13 in 14 chance that you would not get covid or a 1 in 14 chance that you would get covid.
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This. It cannot be said often or loudly enough. They’re so hard that it seems a lot of people just give up and use statistical methods to fit their agenda. And remember, if your science journalism does not have error bars it is neither.
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No, it’s abundantly clear that the COVID vaccines do both of the following:
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Being fully vaccinated reduces the risk of getting infected (regardless of severity) compared to unvaccinated controls. A recent study showed a 91% reduced risk of COVID infection for the mRNA vaccines, according to the CDC. So, comparing equally sized groups of vaccinated people and unvaccinated people: For every 100 unvaccinated people who catch COVID, only 9 vaccinated people will catch it, on average (on a population level).
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Fully vaccinated people who do get sick (for example, the remaining unlucky 9% in the 91% reduced risk statistic) tend to have a disease course that is milder on average than the disease course for unvaccinated people who get sick. Comparing vaccinated people who catch COVID and unvaccinated people who catch COVID, the rate of hospitalization is for unvaccinated folks is 29 times higher than the rate for vaccinated folks, according to a recent report from the CDC. And as might be expected to follow from that, the rate of death is much lower among the vaccinated who still catch COVID.
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If that’s the same CDC study that I think it is, it’s probably nowhere near accurate when it comes to Delta. From the CDC’s website:
Unfortunately analysis of more recent case rate data from the last couple of months shows effectivity well below 91%, but still better than the unvaccinated.
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or 1 in 14 annually. That is not all that great. I will continue to mask and distance as mucha s possible, and focus on the actually very good chance of not landing int he ICU if I do get it.
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Yeah, I saw something more recent, during Delta’s time, that I think showed unvaxed people having 5x the risk of catchig COVID compared to vaxed folks. The important point here is that vaccination is still VERY EFFECTIVE, even against Delta, and if everyone who is recommended to get it ACTUALLY GOT VACCINATED, then we would likely reach herd immunity and stop giving the virus chances to mutate and challenge the immunity from the existing vaccines.
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C’mon, be fair: they’re required to get the virus in Texas.
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I keep seeing anti mask/vaccine people saying if only their spouse/other personal relationships had got vaccinated they would not be dead. They thought it was fake etc. It does not seem to make any impact but maybe the anecdotal stories make more sense to them since it seems to be what they resort to using.
So if your anecdote and sharing personal information helps - I think it is worth sharing.
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And if you go out once a week, (except for 2 weeks where you skip your grocery store run) that’s now 50/5000 , or 1/100 chance of getting it this year.
If you (and your spouse) average 4 trips a week outside between the two of you, (grocery, doctor, pharmacy, etc), that’s 4*52/5000, or 1/24 that one of you will catch it in a year (and if one catches it, chances are you both will end up with it if you live in the same household)
If you go to work (to a non-home workplace) 5 days a week, except for your 2 weeks vacation, that’s now 250/5000, or 1/20 you’ll catch it. If both you and your spouse goes to work 5 days a week (except for vacation), that’s now 1/10 your household will get infected. (keeping in mind that an “all day being exposed” environment like a workplace probably has much higher odds than "works from home but goes out for groceries and other errands), so your individual odds may be much higher)
if you take your family of 4 to the mall every Saturday, except for those 2 weeks, that’s 200/5000, or 1/25 someone in your family will catch it (and lets face it, if 1 person in your household catches, it’s extremely likely the close contact will mean you all end up with it)
If you have children under 12, then they are sill unvaccindated, and in school, you now have 100% chance your kids will be infected, and that practically guarantee’s you will end up getting it as well, vaccinated or not.
Odds don’t sound nearly so great now do they?
And then of course, now there’s this:
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More specifically, the CDC reported yesterday (10 Sept 2021) that AFTER Delta became the predominant variant, unvaccinated people (compared to vaccinated people) had risk of:
- getting infected: 5x
- being hospitalized: more than 10x
- death: more than 10 x
It’s still a no-brainer for the vast, vast majority of people to get vaccinated. Especially if you frame it as:
Everyone can choose one of two options:
> (1) receive the vaccine: This option protects against the Delta variant & severe illness
or
(2) forgo the vaccine: This options leads to 10x the risk of death from COVID.Recent studies show that if people catch COVID (including the Delta variant), those who had chosen option #2 had more than 10 times the risk of death.
The only exceptions to the “no-brainer” choice to get vaccinated would be people with a very specific contraindication whose physician has specifically instructed them not to receive the vaccine – I would estimate that fewer than 1% of people fall into that category.
Soapbox: Since I’m on the topic of bogus excuses: Religious exemptions to vaccination are outrageous. If someone’s recklessness can spread a fatal disease to others, and therefore represents a public health hazard, then their own superstitious views need to tucked away along their thoughts on Santa Claus or the Tooth Fairy, and they need to turn their brain on and join the 21st century. I’m embarrassed for our society that we will allow people to endanger others’ health (and to get away with a whole other bunch of outrageous crimes and nonsense) because they still believe in fairy tales. We reward stupidity to an astounding degree. People in the future will look back on us and wonder how we could have been as scientifically advanced as we are and still believe in imbecilic crap like that.
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Also not being snarky:
I’m a fucking Black woman living in America, dude; which means that my overall odds for survival in general are a LOT fucking lower than I care for, pandemic or no pandemic.
I say all that to say this; I avoid possible death and grievous bodily harm as much as is realistically possible, considering the given circumstances.
Obligs a/f:
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Emphasis mine.
We all know this by now, but just to restate it: Every time we let the virus infect someone, it’s a potential for it to mutate again. People are taking a lot more into account than just their own personal chance of dying, you know. We’re also thinking about the bigger picture.
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This.
I have extended fmily members who refuse to wear masks and that have criticized me for doing so, saying “The chances of you dying are very small.”
My reply was “Did it ever occur to you I might be trying to protect other people?”
They had no reply. This kind of thinking is clearly alien to them.
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You mean, things like not swimming in the ocean after dark alone, or not wandering around a golf course with a metal golf club over one’s head during a thunderstorm, or not running through tall grass in rattlesnake country? Those kinds of common sense precautions to reduce the likelihood of unlikely causes of death?
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