New York Times shows how the virus won

You really think a democrat controlled Congress would’ve impeached Hilary Clinton? Seems unlikely unless she really did something awful. Of course, there’d be TONS of oversight from the Senate.

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I hope you and @Carbonman are right.

I’m reading that even people with very light symptoms might have permanent health deficits. And people who survive a heavy case of COVID19 may have shortened life spans.

What a fucking miserable disease.


because of the potential for exponential growth, we may well have missed the window for where we could ever catch up.

this is going to be super frightening if a vaccine doesn’t pan out. in the worst case scenario america might really then become “walled off” from the world just like trump and the russian government have always wanted.

who’s going to want to come here and who’s going to allow us abroad if we have indeed missed our opportunity at getting this under control?


The “good” news is that if you feel pessimistic, that won’t actually make the outcome worse, any more than people believing it’s a left-wing hoax will make the outcome any better. I mean: there’s no limit to how much people can strain your faith in humanity, but there is a limit to how much worse they can actually make the public-health situation. They can’t wear less than zero masks, or attend more than one superspreading event at a time.


That is a possibility that scares the hell out of me. And more to the point, I don’t see programs by states or provinces to try and collect that sort of data so we find out just how likely it is.

I understand that the US Federal effort is a lost cause. But I would have expected individual states within a few months have built task forces to collect the sort of quality data that’s needed to actually fight this disease. And perhaps it’s happening. But I don’t see it, even from governments that have seemed reasonably rational.

It might be that I simply don’t see these efforts - but it certainly doesn’t feel that the states and provinces are taking pro-active measures - only reactive (and that’s the sane regions). It’s as if they feel this will all be a bad dream in a year.

And maybe they’re right. Given that the war will be over before the leaves fall, why on earth should we bother building an army?


For the moment, it looks like the best way to avoid buying the farm in Los Angeles is to buy a farm in Montana.


The virus didn’t really win. The fight was deliberately thrown.

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I just heard today on NPR that the GOV thinks about an order more magnitude of Americans are catching COVID-19 than tests are indicating. That was about the higher-end of my own sense of ~5x to 10x.

Early on in March I was thinking we’d probably see WWII casualty-level deaths, which was about 420K Americans over 4 years, up to maybe 1-2 million. I am thinking we will be lucky if we stay under 500K at this point, in a roughly 18-24 month period. IANAE(pidemiologist) and IANAV(irologist) of course. But I like to think I’m good at observing and comprehending data and trends, modeling, and a degree of accurate inference, anyway.

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