Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2020/03/20/ny-now-has-8000-cases-of-cor.html
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Only because we have no tests in CA.
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Yeah, I was going to say: that should read confirmed cases, which is quite a different thing. We know it’s everywhere, we just have no idea what the numbers are. Then there are the other indicators, such as that spike in unexplained fevers in Florida that we know about only because of smart thermometers, for instance…
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Or anywhere else. I suspect we’re in much worse shape here in Seattle-land, but now that the action has spread to The Important Places, you won’t be hearing about us anymore.
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What, thermometers are spying on us too? Jings!
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Hint: every state is like NY or worse, NY is just one of the few that took responsibility and made their own tests
There are cities all around the country where only 1 or 2, or even no cases are reported in results, yet when you look at newspapers and other reports from the city, there are clearly cases being reported at hospitals
States like Florida are about to meltdown and become toxic.
Pick a state, any state:
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NYC probably has it worse than rural Wyoming just because pandemics spread faster through densely populated areas.
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good point (but also lack of easy access to healthcare, tests etc)
brb checking out uhaul rental prices to rural wyoming (wonder how many people have done that)
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Cool site. Is NY on a CA-style Shelter-in-place now? I’m happy CA took it state-wide yesterday.
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I’m a county away from Travis. Figure Covid-19 already swept through most of the valley. Sacramento itself is a major transportation hub with 5 and 80. See what happens with our shutdown. I had the flu and then I had the flu. Hopefully.
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On top of that we have NYC rich folk. Who are going crazy nutbars spreading themselves around.
I live near the Hamptons, and we had a person get on a shuttle bus from Manhattan because she was showing symptoms. On the way she called one of the hospitals out here to line up testing. Then announces to the bus that she has coronavirus and demands they take her to the hospital in question.
Another person hopped in a god damn helicopter to be shuttled to the same hospital.
All of NYC’s wealthier residents are decamping to wherever it is they have summer homes to bunker up. Hoarding food and getting up to crazy.
My uncle runs the gun club out there. Says they’ve been inundated with inquiries about private gun sales and requests for help with paperwork for the same. Cause all those people rushing out here neeeeeeeeeed a fire arm all the sudden. And as there are no gun shops that far east, they’re getting gouged on private sales.
Only one or two cases in that part of Long Island so far, by next week I bet it will be thousands. Same will happen in the Hudson River Valley, Jersey, Vermont, Florida.
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Well there’s definitely one at Mulberry and Grand
But yeah, that’s the only gun shop I’ve ever seen in NYC.
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Well, if the local boys have a chance to gouge the Summer-in-the-Hamptons crowd, I’d say that’s a good thing.
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I’ve been reading that the death rate lags about 3 weeks behind the date of infection.
We also have the current number of deaths & enough data to extrapolate a growth rate in the US.
If that’s the case, we should be able to extrapolate about how many people are infected now with the disease that will ultimately kill them in the next 3 weeks.
The death rate is probably also a good number to use, because the number is much lower & not much looks like respiratory collapse, so there’s likely to be fewer untested cases where COVID-19 was the cause of death.
Anyway, as of the 19th, we had 207 deaths from COVID-19 in the US, after starting to see deaths on Feb 29. That gives me an estimate of a growth factor of 1.32 per day. I hope that’s wrong.
When I first calculated this, I somehow wound up with a growth factor of 1.2 per day, which means that by 21 days from the 19th, we’d be looking at a 46-fold increase in deaths, or a total of 9,520 deaths.
If it’s a growth rate of 1.32, that corresponds to 70,500 deaths.
21 days from the 19th is April 10, by the way. That’s Good Friday this year.
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My immediately family all live in NY. My brother on LI, but he is taking a two week vacation upstate. Younger sister way out in the boonies. My other sister and her family and my mother in Westchester, in the thick of it.
They’re taking things very seriously, thank goodness.
Oregon just announced “Stay Home, Stay Safe,” which is essentially shelter in place.
I am very glad I have a dog so I have an excuse to walk.
Fuck Trump.
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And that shop only sells to law enforcement.
You have to go to Westchester or Nassau Counties to find the next closest ones.
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Although users were probably aware of the smart thermometers uploading anonymized data, all sorts of previously secret government surveillance systems are being revealed, being used as means of tracking who infected people came into contact with, etc.
Yeah, NY is just a bit ahead of the curve because of the density (and high number of travelers), so all their hospitals are overloaded now, which hasn’t happened in most states - yet.
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Consider also:
(1) The number of infection-related deaths will reflect the Spike versus Slope curve. A Spike brings more deaths than a Slope, even if the final total number of infected persons is the same, because Spike overloads the health care system.
(2) During a Spike, expect a rise in deaths (also more non-fatal bad events) in non-COVID-19 patients, due to health care system overload.
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Boston MA called and said “Hold my… Nevermind.” NYC is huge! Congratulations
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