One of the things that worries me is the abandonment of the idea of testing the U.K. public for Coronavirus - how are we going to follow the progress of the disease if we donāt attempt to measure it?
Another take on just how screwed are we. Estimates are slightly different than some Iāve seen, but conclusions are the same.
Youāll still know how many are hospitalized, and how many die.
If the over 70ies self-isolate, and you do the same for other people at risk, what good would it do to know how many are infected?
IMHO it does make sense to test health workers and people who care for the elderly daily, because it appears that tests can prove infection before people are infectious.
Well, South Korea is second only to Japan, but US has a number similar to UK, Sweden, Denmark or Canada, so you are just as screwed as they are.
China apparently has on average a bit more than 4.
I know a better and more effective way: take their money to help the most vulnerable through this crisis.
Yeah, because when self-isolating you can sit on the toilet for a couple of hours each day, or even longer, like this lady in Kansas.
We want to know how effectively people are following the government advice since this feeds into how rapidly the infection will spread. I guess maybe testing the whole population isnāt a realistic goal if we believe that 70% are going to get the infection. But Iām surprised that there isnāt a requirement to report when people are self-isolating. That could cheaply provide an upper bound on the number of cases.
Anecdotally, Iāve ridden the bus twice in the last week and some guy has gotten on with a dry continuous cough (and Iāve got off and waited for the next bus or walked). If people were following the government advice those people would be self isolating at home for seven days and I wouldnāt be hearing them on the bus. If people donāt follow the government advice weāre in trouble.
For what itās worth.
If true, this would be very nice. Buy us a few months leeway to develop drugs and vaccines. Based on the (even very accelerated) timeline we are looking at, though, next Fall will be anticipated with great fear and terror.
Yes? I donāt understand why people donāt understand people hoarding TP.
Toilet paper is connected to a very basic biological function that most of us do multiple times a day. In case of families, thatās a bunch of people doing it a bunch of times every day. (And then there are people like me, who have ulcerative colitis, IBD, or other gastrointestinal conditionā¦) Itās a very basic hygienic product. In a situation like this you donāt want to go out and interact with people or otherwise put yourself at risk of infection unless absolutely necessary, so people are buying shit in bulk to avoid having to do that. Also, weāve already seen stores closing, people being quarantined, forced to or choosing to self-isolate, etc. Panic is not good, no, but I donāt think itās irrational to worry about losing access to basic resources. (What I do think is irrational and an overall dick thing to do is to buy up half a store leaving nothing for othersā¦)
Same thing with soap and tissues. Even washing your hands as you normally do (after toilet, etc.) youāre using a fair amount of soap, especially if you have a family, never mind washing it more often as you should during these conditions. And coronavirus aside, itās flu season so even if you donāt get infected with COVID-19 youāre still likely to get the flu, or even just the common cold, which necessitates having a lot of tissues on handā¦
Personally, I have ulcerative colitis, so I go through packages of TP quite fast. I have enough for now, but I lowkey worry about the state of the world/my country when it runs out, considering my immune system is compromised as is. But then, I worry a lot more about availability of food, as people are hoarding like crazy and thereās literally barely anything available anymore. I planned to self-isolate soon to protect myself, as much as possible anyway, but at this rate I wonāt be able to keep it up for very long without having to resort to eating in a way that affects my condition. (Iāve been mostly calm until now, but then I went out to buy groceries yesterday, and there was nothing. Iām actually starting to develop some very real anxiety.)
And letās be honest- most men here are being clueless about womenās needs for toilet paper.
Yep, that tooā¦
Well, what you want a achieve is flattening the curve of those cases that need hospitalization. That appears to be less than 5% of those infected. Thereās a pretty good idea of who is in that group: people with certain diseases or a fragile immune system. So we can look at specific measures to protect those. When you focus your efforts, they will obviously be more effective.
Itās also obvious that everyone needs to adjust their lifestyle, but how much and in what way is not so clear. What worked in China will probably not work in UK and the US.
I agree that you need some data on how many people are actually infected to track whether your predictions, and adjust models and measures.
But we have to admit that we will have to operate on limited data und a high degree of uncertainty anyway, and the more people we include in our response, the more uncertainty we will have to face. So itās better to run specific controllable experiments and correct course than do a lot of massive changes where lack of compliance and lack of data will make us fly blind.
I think we all need to be conscious about how our loved ones do in this crisis, and especially look out for signs of anxiety and depression, so that we can help people get professional help for that.
I also recommend daily workouts, meditation and time spent outside as a boost for oneās immune system. That will also help dealing with fear and terror. As would a big fat blunt from time to time.
What are people supposed to do if they depend on public transportation, have a cough, and need to get to work or to the supermarket? You can blame them for not self-isolating, but maybe first blame employers for making people come in to work, and then figure out how to get basic supplies to the people youāve asked to self-isolate.
Iām currently symptom-free and have been mainly living like a hermit (my wife is back in the US, and my school is now shut down), but I did go to a seminar last Tuesday and was on a crowded train a week ago, so I certainly could come down with the disease. What then? I think Iāve got everything I need to survive for a couple of weeks (or will after I restock my coffee), but what if I hadnāt?
Way to go, runners. Your hobby is so much more important than public health.
A lot of people gathered together this sunday in several cities in my country in order to show support to the president.The irony is that the president urged the people to cancel these demonstrations. Now he is posting videos and photos of these demonstrations in his personal Facebook page.
There are a lot of people on the beaches too, because, you know, it is free and it is very hot.
