This reminds me… Over the weekend I read a short interview with Nate Silver, who pointed out that 538 had Trump with a thirty percent chance of winning: “Trump’s going to win the election about as often as a good baseball player gets a base hit… We were quite emphatic that the election was competitive, and that Trump had a chance.”
(I don’t actually remember what they emphasized or didn’t, but I’d agree that 30 percent is much different than non-zero)
