This is what I’m going for:
http://ElectoralMap.net/2016/myPrediction.php?d=qx0zqwr0nr0xrwn0q
R-179 D-359
It’s off from what’s shown here, because I’m also predicting that the Nebraska 2nd will go blue again.
Is anyone following what’s going on with Evan McMullin in Utah? Will Clinton win Utah? Will McMullin win it?
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He’s Mormon, isn’t he?
Looks like he’s turning it into a competitive state, but I think Trump will still win, even if it’s with not much over 1/3 of the vote. McMullin seems to be taking his support from Johnson more than Trump.
The target is still an absolute majority in the electoral college, isn’t it? It’s not the candidate with the most that wins if their total is less than 270?
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I think Johnson will get one electoral vote, and maybe one will go to Pence or whomever, but Clinton will win this handily. The McMullin thing is just an interesting wrinkle. The Koch brothers put him up to take votes away from Trump, because they can’t control Trump. Instead of solid Trump, Utah is turning into a three-way tossup between Clinton, Trump, and McMullin.
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I pretty much agree with that. PA, VA and NC going for Clinton would be enough to foreclose all possible paths for Trump, and I think the only one that’s even questionable at this point is North Carolina.
Actually, PA closes half an hour later, so make it 8 pm eastern. 
It’s a boring sort of answer, but I have little reason to predict anything differently than what the polling averages say: RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House
Relative to that map, I would expect Iowa would flip if Trump continues his unhinged behavior. Probably won’t go much further than that. I’d like to think GA is a possibility, but somehow I doubt it. Same with Texas.
ETA: I forgot about Arizona. It has gotten quite close, so maybe put that one in the same category as Iowa.
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He could quite easily lose Alaska too, which would be funny.
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