Polls indicate Biden's edge over Trump as election nears

Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2024/03/11/polls-indicate-bidens-edge-over-trump-as-election-nears.html


Won’t be decided with the popular vote. Not where you should be keeping track.


It’s ridiculous that this is the case in the US. We’re 8 months out from the election. In most civilized countries, we wouldn’t even be bothering with these polls and campaigning for around another 6.5 months.

But, glad to hear the news. For whatever it’s worth this far out and with all the caveats about polls.


This Up Here GIF by Chord Overstreet

Polls don’t mean shit unless provides an estimate of electoral college votes . ■■■■■ has never and will never win the popular vote.


I just hope this isn’t feeding the Dem establishment’s tendency toward smug complacency. As others have noted, the Electoral College exists. Margins of error also exist. The Biden campaign needs to campaign in all 50 states on the assumption that Biff has a constant five point lead.


… as we should remember from eight years ago, the polls don’t really predict anything, whether we account for the Electoral College or not

They haven’t gotten any better and we should all find other things to worry about :confused:


Well, I for one am glad this has been figured out so early. I look forward to not needing to hear about any more polls until the election.


You see it as glass half full, but it’s really close to half empty, and precariously close to more than half empty. The fact that nearly half of American voters (if you believe the polls) are willing to vote for a fascist party is frightening, and nothing at all to be happy about.


The only “poll” that matter is the first Tuesday in November. The rest can be forgotten.


This being anything other than a 99:1 landslide boggles my mind.


No I don’t and please don’t put words in my mouth.
When I see things allegedly moving in the right direction, I’m glad of it, no matter where we find ourselves at the moment.


Alternate headline: “Slight Majority of Americans Prefer Leftover Pizza to Fresh Dog Vomit.”


After the Clinton debacle, I seriously hope they learned this lesson. Nothing is a given, and the outcome will not depend on popularity but on turnout. We need to generate turnout if we are going to win this.


I participated in administering a man-on-the-street survey sponsored by the local Democratic Party organization this past week. Mostly Biden supporters in this blue area of a historically red state. But it was sad to see how many people are not engaged in the political scene, and how many registered Dems were not planning to vote, for a variety of reasons. We have our work cut out for us. I’m begging everyone to find a way to get involved in ways that make a difference – donating, registering voters, phone banking, canvassing, writing postcards, ballot curing, driving people to the polls. We cannot let a dangerous cult take power next year. We can do this. We have to.


Can you share some of the reasons why they aren’t planning to vote? I’m too curious not to ask (and apparently a glutton for disappointment).


There were several people who didn’t like either Trump or Biden and wouldn’t vote for either. Biden was too old/incompetent, or they didn’t like his coddling of Bibi over Gaza; Trump was crazy/evil. There was also a fair amount of powerlessness expressed by people, ie. "what good does it do to vote?; nothing changes.” I think some of these could be won over if they had more information.


I would suggest that merely observing the changes under Il Douche to the changes under Biden, would put the lie to “voting doesn’t matter.” There are lots of folks who will say that their personal situation didn’t change, and that may well be true, but you have to be able to take a bigger view. Also, that is a very privileged viewpoint. It’s true enough that I will most likely be fine regardless, because as a straight, cis, white, fairly wealthy professional man, nobody is targeting me for elimination. But for my family, my friends, people I know and love, it is literally life and death. This message needs to get out. We need to think beyond our very small selves to the bigger picture.


You might also add this anecdote; I’m sure I’m not the only one to have heard it: “I don’t want to get called up for jury duty.” In addition to tempting/taunting fate (i.e. when the day comes that they need a jury), the courts have other ways of finding jurors (e.g. traffic citations).

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It was eye-opening to me that it was people of color and folks whose lives and liberty are most at stake who most often expressed an unwillingness to vote. I get it; life is damn hard, and for many, it’s difficult to see beyond paying the rent and putting food on the table. As the kind of privileged person you describe above, I wanted, as gently and non-judgily as I could, to explain why their vote really does matter. But we were instructed not to express any kind of bias or opinion. You hear a lot from the professional talking heads about “low information voters” – I met quite a few last week, of all ages, colors, and political persuasions.


Oh yes, I’ve seen this before. It’s a kind of learned helplessness. After all, the system in which they would be participating is also the same system that has put them into and perpetuated the circumstances they live in. If you feel like you’ve been historically shit on by the government, it’s hard to believe your vote will change that. It is partially a low education thing. It’s also because I’m reality we’ve often fallen short of improving conditions for the groups at greatest risk.