Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2024/06/20/president-biden-now-leads-donald-trump-by-9-points-with-independents-in-new-fox-poll-video.html
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[beware it’s that unpleasant ol’ poll cynic]
Even if you manage to have faith in them, polls that show a two point difference alongside a (miscalculated) MOE of 3% should be interpreted as the two contenders being indeterminately tied.
And with Independents, the gap between the candidates widens, with Biden ahead by 9 points
Given the dismal national political scene, i’d blather that someone actually taking a survey and declaring themselves as “Independent” are most likely to be former republicans who, by the very act of declaring themselves “Independent”, have laudably soured on the orange trash fire. So (sez this bugbear) the category alone reveals the likely correlation.
In passing… (out?) fox"news" currently dumping slightly anti-trump stuff is very likely a internecine transient tiff with biff exemplified by:
Trump Loses It At Fox News, Says No One Can Trust It
The former president is once again lashing out at the network for letting a guest speak critically of him.
Jun 19, 2024, 05:09 PM EDT
Donald Trump bashed Fox News, his on-again-off-again favorite news network, on social media Wednesday, proclaiming that “nobody can ever trust” its reporting. …
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That is all true, but I would take this as “it is probably much worse for Trump than this looks” given that polling trends older and whiter, and Faux polling, in particular, is going to show that trend. Not at all advocating complacency, do not misunderstand, but as November approaches, I expect more folks to start paying attention, and that can only go against the Orange Menace.
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We should all be voting and acting like we were in 3rd and trending to 4th. We can’t let this guy get in again.
That he even has a chance really makes me sad about the state of the country. It should be a Reagan-Dukakis level victory with these two.
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(hate cluttering up the comment section with a “hear! hear!” but…)
Damn right! Spot on!!
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NYT headline: Biden’s Lead with Independents Increases, Prompting Worries About Support with Registered Democrats
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As a fellow poll cynic, I may be of assistance:
The timing of this poll is sus, as it comes right on the heels of T**** ranting against Fox and giving orders to Rupert.
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Agreed. I mean, seems that just the fact of this poll is seeing the light of day indicates something. Murdoch/T**** fighting each other works for me.
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It will probably be something like “FAILING Fox News releases FAKE poll saying Sleepy Joe Biden is winning with Independents…FAKE NEWS…SAD!”
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I’m not surprised. Joe continues to do good things for his constituents. The Biden economy looks good.
Donny just has more bad exposure every day. Convicted. Associates convicted. Steve Bannon going to prison. Alex Jones going bankrupt. Rudy likely going to jail and looking like a bumbling idiot.
And that drip, drip, drip looking to continue. If Donny does as poorly in the debate as it looks like he will- that’ll be another big drop. And his sentencing hearing.
Sad, low energy, broken brain, convicted felon Trump.
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“FAILING Donald Trump is such a LOSER! SAD!”
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Actual NYT headline “Trump Erodes Biden’s Lead in 2024 fundraising after conviction”. Which is largely due to Timothy Mellon giving Trump 50,000,000. He also gave RFK Jr the same.
When the story should be, how is this legal, and what is Timothy Mellon trying to buy?
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The answers to those good questions are well known, but they should be reported again. Mellon is trying to buy more tax breaks from von Clownstick (Mellon is a single-issue voter) and is trying to buy a spoiler for Biden in Captain Brainworm to ensure von Clownstick wins. It’s all legal because of Citizens United, one of the worst Supreme Court decisions in history.
The deeper story is that those anticipated tax breaks have to be worth way more than $70-million to Mellon if these huge donations make sense from a cost-benefit perspective. I haven’t seen any estimates on what that number would be.
There is the possibility that the donations don’t make financial sense and that the tinfoil hat candidate with the sugar mama running mate is stealing just as many or more votes from Biff as he is from Biden. Mellon just might be another greedy idiot failson from a wealthy family with more money than sense.
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Or he’s just a zealot/true beliver with such deep pockets that 100 million is chump/Trump change to him?
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I was just adding something to that effect as you commented. A very real possibility. Just because he inherited money doesn’t mean he’s a business genius.
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Christ, what a bunch of assholes.
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raggedy rug broken brain flabby fuck
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The family’s wealth originated with Mellon Bank, founded in 1869 by Archibald’s grandson, Thomas Mellon. Under the direction of Thomas’s son, Andrew William Mellon, the Mellons became principal investors and majority owners of Gulf Oil (which merged with Chevron Corporation in 1985), Alcoa(since 1886), The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (since 1970), Koppers (since 1912), New York Shipbuilding (1899–1968) and Carborundum Corporation,[2]as well as their major financial and ownership influence on Westinghouse Electric,[3][dead link] H.J. Heinz Company,[citation needed] Newsweek , U.S. Steel, Credit Suisse First Boston and General Motors.[citation needed] The family bank would go on to merge with the Bank of New York to become BNY Mellon.
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