I knew it.
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There is that whole “New Politics” thing that the Russians have been pushing, where you simply look to spread confusion and fear by doing all sorts of weird shit and making strange pronouncements, even when they are provably false. A bit like Trump but as official doctrine.
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Just a small taste from WIKI re Zero Hedge:
Zero Hedge’s content has been classified as “alt-right”,[3] anti-establishment, conspiratorial, and economically pessimistic,[4][5] and has been criticized for presenting extreme and sometimes pro-Russian views.[2][6][7][2]
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Ultimately, Putin just wants to be left alone to expand the “Russkiy Mir” and reconstruct what he can of the old Soviet/Russian empire. That, along with playing the whole “victim of the West” role, plays well with his base. He definitely doesn’t want to invade America or get in a nuclear war or anything silly like that. They’re pretty clear about the results they want:
The challenge is that, in order to get those results, Putin has to extend his reach into the West so those countries won’t interfere with, say, another land-grab in Ukraine. The best way to do that is to have leaders in the West who are somewhat friendly or isolationist (which means right-wing populists) or to undermine liberal-democracy and promote disunity to the point where things are so chaotic that Western nations will be too busy to do anything but appease him and enter into favourable treaties and understanding. So he has to extend unusual tactics like the “New Politics” @euansmith discussed outside Russia and take some risks in the process.
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Putin’s “reach” may also likely include the need to deflect/obstruct Western investigations into Russia’s off-shore, oligarch piggybanks.
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Definitely. He’ll smirk at a lot of the things the West does to retaliate, but not the various Magnitsky Acts being enacted in Western countries (especially since Russian banks and real estate are no sane Westerner’s idea of a safe piggybank – he was left to retaliate instead by banning adoptions of Russian children in countries that enacted the law).
Putin and his cronies are very wealthy and, while they won’t lose everything, Western governments should take the approach that Billy Ray Valentine suggested in “Trading Places”:
“You know, it occurs to me that the best way you hurt rich people is by turning them into poor people.”
Putin, it’s clear, understands this deeply. Which is why it would be so effective when turned on him.
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My fingers are crossed, but… what’s insidious is that one very possible, nasty solution to being investigated is for the oligarchs to simply double-down; more dark-money out there means additional, longer, stronger ‘tendrils’ snaking through the system, resulting in more avenues, and greater resources, to buy influence. If it only takes a lousy $15,650 campaign contribution for a house rep to sell his/her soul to the NRA, imagine what a few million bucks spread around here and there would do in an effort to short-circuit financial oversight, due diligence, and action?
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Again, what nation states capable of making this stuff would want to kill Skripal?
The UK? Why the ever-living fuck would the UK want to kill an extremely valuable double agent who they went to the trouble of resettling in the UK after a prisoner exchange? That’s an insanely bad own goal.
CIA did it? They assassinated a citizen and intelligence agent of our closest ally on their own soil using a nerve agent in violation of the CWC just to make Russia look bad? I…don’t think the current president would order that, and CIA isn’t that rogue.
The Revolutionary Guards did it? Because…they need the lulz?
And of course the Russians point out that while its true that a lot of Russians seems to die in the UK, the UK is the other common factor. Seems that Russians in Germany or the US dont have the same longevity issue.
London is a major global money-laundering center, so if you’re a Russian oligarch on the outs it’s a really popular place to retire. And it’s not just Britain. After the 2016 election a whole lot of Russian diplomats died mysteriously. In the US you have the death of Sergei Krivov, who died of either a heart attack or blunt-force trauma inside the NYC consulate, and Mikhail Lesin somehow managed to beat himself to death in his hotel room. According to Dateline, 40 Russian political opponents have died in the last 3 years.
Why Putin? Why now? Is every murder in the UK associated with Teresa May?
Bad as she is, Theresa May is not a former intelligence officer with a record of murdering people who cross her. For comparison purposes, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists exactly one journalist was murdered on British soil in the last 20 years, and that was an Irish guy who specialized in covering paramilitaries. In Russia there have been twenty-seven.
With no special insider knowledge, I can think of three possibilities for why now:
- To discourage anyone from getting the bright idea of defecting and revealing Russia’s dirty laundry.
- To silence Skripal because his some of his insider knowledge has become newly dangerous
- To silence Skripal because of his current activities in the expatriate community
Number one currently seems backed up by official Russian statements.
I will happily concede that Putin may not have directly ordered this, and that a sub-faction within Russia is responsible. I will also reiterate my opinion that both the Skripal and Litvineko murders were intended to not be detected and are only confirmed as murders because the murderers miscalculated.
Why the rush to publicize and blame?
Because they were satisfied with the evidence they have, and a foreign country carrying out an attack with chemical weapons on your soil demands a response. Malaysia did the same damn thing when they expelled the North Korean ambassador two weeks after Kim Jong-Un’s brother was murdered with VX on Malaysian soil.
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After seeing the better-than-expected results they got in 2016 by spending dark money, they’ll likely double-down either way. I’d rather that Western governments do more to cut off still-legitimate paths for those tendrils. I was pleasantly surprised to see this story yesterday, for example:
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Russian Poisoning of Skripal is a conspiration.
IIRC didn’t Putin mention in a call to Obama during the Crimea Crisis he said had one of the smaller nuclear weapons (those that are loaded on the trucks) in Kaliningrad? I don’t know if that rumor ever got verified but that’s what I read a year after the incident. So Putin isn’t unwilling to throw the nuclear card down and other kinds of violence when it suits him. I just don’t know if killing an individual person who’s a former spy is going to give him the results he wants: a shaken/divided western front. If anything this gives May more political currency at least on the foreign policy agenda. I don’t think he would want an alert and universally hostile western Europe. So I feel a bit out of the loop with these events taking place.
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Sorry, you have to say “babochka” if you want a lapdance…
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This is good. Hopefully, given the NATO ally full court press so far, this will inspire the other members to tease out castigating loopholes. (Realistically, this may mean some allies providing certain diplomatic incentives to the less enthusiastic.)
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Nothing wrong with that but sometimes people prefer to cite sources to provide a better sense of their credibility.
That’s the thing about the internet, no one can hear you coughing and spluttering, or see your wild hand-waving.
Anyhoo, I took “rare and Russia specific” to mean that only the Russian State could produce this and no one else. If that were true then it would certainly be strong evidence of the Russian state’s guilt , which was why I thought it important to address. However it seems that the toxin is Russia specific in the same sense that an AK-47 is Russia specific. Let me know if I have offended Occam.
I think they were doing fine for enemies right now. You dont think this latest episode “gilds the lily” ?
You mean the formerly American but now British for tax reasons Bill Browder? Have you met Mr. Browder? I have and I thought the best descriptor was thieving wank-stain, but a friend who worked for him is more charitable. She just says he is very focused on the important issues in life ie how to do the best by Bill Browder. I know at least one of the Russian laws Browder broke, cos my firm broke the same law. Everyone did, cos we assumed they would never enforce it.
And Browder is nuts. Its almost impossible to do what he suggests. Beneficial ownership of shells within shells within shells. Either way, Putin would love it cos the likely effect is vast scale capital repatriation back to Russia and every Oligarch would then be in Putin’s pocket.
Funny, speaking as a British West Indian man who has been repeated confused for a paid Russian trolley, the McCarthyism seems pretty real to me. Or perhaps people really do have astonishingly bad judgement.
Don’t know. Some of what you say makes sense. But a lot of it involves doing long distance psychology on an ex-KGB man who now runs the other nuclear power. I have no idea what Putin thinks - but I cant help but think he must be a little disturbed by the idea of taking out the kids of his fellow ex-spooks as collateral damage.
Gessen I follow too. Kasparov is a bitter man. Dont follow the Rioters. I note that Gessen has been rather more nuanced in her analysis of the Skripal case.
And yeah the Atlantic really is one. Take a closer look at its board. Ovciously its not the CIA rag which is the Daily Beast but still.
There is an interesting back story to this. But I should look it up again. Ames wrote it up some place.
Oh charming!
My bottom line is i would be surprised if Putin ordered this. It wouldnt comfort me if he didnt - cos someone somewhere is playing rather dangerous games and I have kids. My pet theory is the Ukrainian’s did it - for which I have absolutely no evidence whatsoever.
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You asked who might have more motive to kill Skripal. Well thats not really all of it is it? We need to ask who wants Skripal dead or who doesnt care if he lives or dies but would like to put the Russians in the frame. After all Skripal isnt dead is he? And given it was a military grade nerve agent its funny how few people died. The doctor who gave them first aid is fine and never got sick and the daughter is recovering (or so we are told). So I can only assume “military grade” means very ineffective in this context.
If this is our objective we need something very Russian. How about a nerve agent the Russians worked on called Foliant? Bad name. We need something which sounds more Russian. Lets go with Novichuk! Just like in that tv show which aired recently in the UK.
Now we cant say that only the Russians can make it cos thats not true. So lets point out that the Russians led the development in the 90s.
Anyway, so now the question is which state might want to point the finger at the Russians right now? Any recent developments? East Ghouta falling perhaps? Which means the Syrian state might actually survive and its pretty much time to end the war against it? Well any states have an interest in that? See the effect has been the further economic and diplomatic isolation of the Russian state. Perhaps the Russians didnt see that coming, but thats kind of weird, cos I certainly did as soon as I heard the story.
And then there is Trump saying that there is an arms race and perhaps its gone too far? Maybe Mr. Trump needs to be headed off before peace breaks out.
Or maybe it really is about who hosts the World Cup?
So just in case this wasnt clear, I would bet a lot that the following states can synthesize these Organophosphates. The US, UK, France,Russia, Iran, Israel and quite possibly the Ukraine.
And as for highly valuable agent, how could a guy who had spent 4 years in a Russian jail and then 8 years in Salisbury be a highly valuable agent?
Yes a whole lot of Russian diplomats died in suspicious circumstances. But who do you think killed the Russian ambassador to Turkey? Was that one the exception to the rule or a clue?
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That’s a pretty short list, and not even close to making these agents as common as an AK-47 as you previously suggested. Russia and Iran are known publicly known to have produced them, but only Russia is known to have developed them for offensive use. For everyone else you’re making a leap of logic - they could make the stuff, therefore they did make the stuff. But at least you’ve finally given a concrete list of suspects
And as for highly valuable agent, how could a guy who had spent 4 years in a Russian jail and then 8 years in Salisbury be a highly valuable agent?
He worked for MI6 for over a decade first as a GRU colonel and then at the Russian Foreign Ministry, and allegedly blew the cover of over 300 Russian agents. That’s a pretty damn valuable service for the UK, something they repaid by insisting he be included in a spy swap done by the United States after he got busted in Russia. It’s not something you reward with murder, not if you want repeat business. It also goes against Britain’s historical treatment of Russian assets. Seriously, the “Britain killed him” talking point is…not good. I struggle to be polite in describing how not good it is.
The US killing him isn’t much better. We actually have one of the Foliant scientists, so the idea having some at least passes the laugh test. However, murdering a citizen of an ally with a nerve agent to make a third party look bad isn’t just violating multiple laws and treaties, it’s shitting all over the Special Relationship in a really bad way. I’d expect it to be a no-go in normal times, so when the president’s policy is engagement with Russia it’s just not happening.
France is in NATO, so all the problems of “using illegal chemical weapons on an ally” apply here, plus capability is just a massive assumption.
Iran can make enough of the stuff for spectrographic analysis, so I suppose they could make more. I’m not sure why Iran would want to screw with its ally Russia [edited-I had a Syria brainfart]. And, oh yeah, the country has been a victim of chemical warfare within living memory and has been praised by the head of OPCW as an effective and active member, so Iran may not be great candidate for offensive chemical weapon use.
Israel and especially Ukraine? Without cites, you’re just pulling stuff out of your ass.
That leaves…a country that developed this stuff for offensive use (and with that interview in The Bell we have an actual description of how Novichok agents could be safely transported and deployed for assassination), has a history of poisonings and assassinations on British soil and elsewhere, and a specific animus against the victim. That’s like actual means, motive and opportunity combined with a modus operandi. But look! Over there! Halley’s Comet!
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You know, except for the “take off your shirt” bit, this is starting to remind me of another head of state. Sure, you’d have to change a few words, but the general pattern is quite familiar. 
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- He isn’t dead.
- The list of potential manufacturers isn’t exclusive. Indeed i think non state actors can manufacture as well. At last a Cornell chemist says so. Are you a chemist?
- Chris Steele had sources. Do you think those sources were current members if the Russian government?
- Pablo Miller recruited Skripal. He also recruited the other russian guy who died recently. He also was a consultant for Orbis. Hummmm. Isnt Chris Steele due in the US to give evidence? Apparently he might be looking at jail time. Of course I’m speculating but your argument is embarrassing. Its basically he was a Russian spy and they waited 12 years to punish him for being a traitor, and picked just before the Presidential elections to do it. What amazes me is that your not embarrassed to reason like that in public.
- The UK didn’t “kill” him cos it would look bad. That’s ok. They can blame it on Russia. Problem fixed!
- “Specific animus” is lazy. They killed him cos they hate him. Well why now and why in a way which even hints at them? There is another dead ex- Russian spy. Strangled also recruited by Miller. Why didn’t they use a specific Russian nerve agent (lol) on him?
- I shouldn’t reply on a mobile device. It makes me sound more scornful than i am. However one quick question. When Tony Blair told you Saddam had WMDs and could use them in 45 mins, did you believe that too?
I’m a chemist (well, chemical engineer) and while I’m not a specialist in organophosphate chemistry, I can tell you that manufacturing nerve gases is not easy. Especially obscure stuff like the Novichok agents, designed to be exceptionally vicious even by the standards of nerve agents, and hard to treat.
These are extremely toxic compounds with pretty exacting manufacturing processes, and their precursors are going to be very unpleasant on their own. You’re going to need very good chemists and specially set up laboratories, and there are ample opportunities to die or be permanently crippled in horribly nasty ways if you screw it up.
Let’s be honest: if manufacturing nerve agents was viable for non-state actors, they’d be using them. If ISIS or al-Qaida could even semi-reliably manufacture functioning sarin or tabun, do you think they’d hesitate to use them? As far as I can recall, Aum Shirinkyo are the only non-state actors who’ve actually used nerve agents for terrorism or murder, and despite having considerable resources and latitude to use them, their sarin was low-quality stuff. And that’s pre-WW2 tech!
The idea that some group of gangsters or terrorists whipped up a Novichok agent in a basement lab somewhere without poisoning themselves and everyone a mile downwind is silly. That’s not how the real world works.
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