Skinner-box rats trained to predict currency market movements


#1

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#2

So what’s the hit percentage of a coin flip?

53% seems well within random to me.


#3

My thoughts exactly.


#4

I accept this like I accept lie detectors, it is a magical black box to intimidate or fleece ignorant people.
But speaking of magical black boxes…
I am currently selling US quarters which I have had painstakingly quantum entangled to the markets of the future by artisan monks using harmonic chants and harmonica music, currently available entangled 24, 48 and 96 hours future.
I also sell some very cool proprietary perpetual motion and cold fusion devices.
To be honest I acquired the tech for all of this when I found and beat up John Titor back in the 90s and stole his stuff.


#5

Because I suppose actual rats are cheaper than hedge-fund managers?


#6

Despite all my rage, I am still just a rat in a cage.


#7

Actual rats have a smaller chance of ever taking over the world.


#8

So rat king deep-battle strategists should be right around the corner?


#9

It’s all fun and games until the rats start demanding $2000000 bonuses.


#10

Liked for Halo Jones :smile:


#11

So, going off on a slight tangent: I used to have domestic rats as pets, they were cute. I like rats!


#12

Um, I see a rats already doing that!


#13

What about mice? :stuck_out_tongue:


#14


#15

Funny - this is exactly the approach used in machine learning, only using a really inappropriate tool for the task: rats rather than statistical models. Mind you, the investment guys are probably tools too…


#16

And rats seem to have morals…


#17

Rats are more interactive. Rats see you as a big rat - mice see you as furniture.


#18

Hmm, my mouse (Mousey) doesn’t see me as a furniture and is interactive. :stuck_out_tongue:


Huffing Boing Boing
#19

Yes, a lot of people seem to be missing the point. This was created by an artist, not a scientist—presumably to point out how insane it is to offer huge compensation packages to Wall Street guys who happened to get a lucky run here or there. Because it’s a statistical guarantee that some guys on Wall Street are going to have a lucky run here or there regardless of whether they know what the hell they’re doing or not.

I see this as a clever way of saying: Hey, Mr. Wall Street—prove you deserve that big bonus more than my rat.


#20

Either it’s a joke, or this guy’s an idiot. Just doing a quick check on the full litters of his third generation rats, 50% is well within the standard error of the mean for both litters, taken either separately or together, meaning that there’s no evidence presented that the breeding had any effect.

That said, my money’s on joke, since it provides a nice commentary on the fact that real traders have pretty similar spreads to this, and any time you see a real trader consistently beat the market (except through insider trading) it’s not by much and not inconsistent with it just being random chance based on the pool of traders out there.