Super-exponential growth in Australia?

What is going on with COVID-19 in Australia? I looked at the graph of cases. At first it looks like normal exponential growth

but when you look at the log plot, it’s still growing faster than linear

This could imply that Australia’s testing is getting exponentially better (or even just polynomially better) as the virus spreads exponentially among the population but polynomially improving testing for several weeks would be quite a feat.

It seems more likely that there’s a second source of growth (like a bunch of tourists bringing the virus in). That would also account for the dramatic rise in cases that aren’t yet at the stage where they are causing death, which remains oddly low & seemingly linear.

Any data analysts or virologists have a better grip on what’s going on here than my armchair analysis?


They’re quarantining now, but the passengers from the first few cruise ships were allowed to scatter across the country without testing.

Every COVID case detected in Tasmania is either (a) someone who just stepped off a cruiseship or international flight, or (b) a close associate of a person in group (a).


Oz media going with the “billionaires are experts at everything” theme:

Previously from this arsehole:


That explains why it’s growing like that. The next question is why so many people are traveling to Australia in the fall? Or are they coming back from vacation? Is it just that it’s one of the largest population centers in the southern hemisphere?

At least my main question is put to rest. It was blowing my mind

I don’t have facts or figures about number of travellers etc but as an Australian, I say it’s likely to do with being one of the biggest population centres in the southern hemisphere plus general isolation in terms of location - to get anywhere we have to fly, ie to Asia, Africa, the Americas and/or Europe. I don’t think there’s one particular time of year when we tend to travel, such as fall/autumn.

Other factors probably coming into play: a smirking fuckwit of a Prime Minister who fled to Hawaii earlier this year while much of the country was burning and is now trying to claw his reputation back and be ‘prime ministerial’ in much the same way the orange demented turd, Trump, was attempting to be presidential. Failure to take the whole thing seriously except for likely economic impacts - never mind the human cost - until the past 24 hours. Not wanting to be seen to be taking less action than state premiers (particularly in my state, Victoria, which is governed by his political opposition) who announced yesterday state-wide measures such as closing schools and non-essential businesses, and that, for instance, Melbourne (capital of the aforementioned Victoria) will be going into lockdown tomorrow (roughly midday Tues). And probably other things that I’ll no doubt think of as soon as I post this!

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