I don’t know if the ones that have worked were flukes. I think there’s a couple of situations where a non-origin story works. First and foremost, with characters whose origin story is part of the cultural zeitgeist. Spider-Man is the best example of this. When Marvel and Sony teamed up to make Spider-Man: Homecoming, they skipped the origin story, and it was absolutely the right thing to do. Everyone knows that origin story at this point. It had been told in two blockbuster Hollywood films and probably a dozen animated tv series, and a pretty cheesy live action tv series from the 1970s. We didn’t need another movie telling us that Peter Parker gets bitten by a radioactive spider, develops superpowers, and then uses them selfishly initially leading to the tragic, avoidable death of his Uncle Ben. Everyone knows that story, even people who don’t watch or like superhero movies. With that character, I don’t think you need to do an origin story. And that movie worked. As did its sequels. I think the same is true with Batman and Superman now. The same may not be true for the Hulk now, but it might have been in 2008 because there was a live action origin story Hulk movie just a few years before that. And then the other kind of movie that’s not an origin story that can work is a sequel. Yes, many sequels have sucked, but some have been amazing. By far the best movie of the Thor series was Ragnarok.
What I think all this shows more than anything is that what really matters is the story, and I’ve said this before. If you tell a good story, people will watch the movie. If you tell a crap story, they won’t. People don’t have superhero movie fatigue. People have bad and mediocre movie fatigue. Quantumania sucked, and it’s box office reflects that. After that movie bombed, all the “superhero fatigue” articles and YouTube videos came out in droves. And then Guardians 3 came out and was great. And the 2nd Spiderverse movie came out and did great. Make a good movie with a good story, and people will gladly pay money to go see it. Crank out formulaic garbage with minimal effort, and they won’t.