Top epidemiologist on Covid surge: "Get ready...We are walking into the mouth of this virus monster"

I do this. Why? Because between my apartment and car is a shared area. When I get out of my car I am going into a shared area. I can either be constantly donning and doffing my masks (I wear a disposable under a cloth) and worrying about contamination, or I can just leave it on.

So, I leave it on. Often for hours. Until I am home and can take it off, or switch it out somewhere safe.

When I have to go places where I have to take it off (like the dentist’s) I pack spares, so I am putting on a clean one after washing my hands.

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run-the-jewels-congrats

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Roger That! The Virus doesn’t take a day off…

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I wear one in my car when alone for all the same reasons. But reason is wasted on anti-maskers and bare-minimum-because-they-won’t-let-me-in-otherwise-maskers.

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No, that’s still worth complaining about. This is clown shoes.

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It makes sense in some situations, for sure, but it serves as a stark contrast to places where mask wearing is waning or stopped.

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The firefighters are starting to arrive but everyone has already run back inside of the burning building.

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Oh, I totally agree on that last point. I was in Vancouver the weekend before lockdown, at one of the last conventions, and watching the news about the facility my stepdad had stayed at just a few years before hit freakishly close to home… I had walked the halls featured in those news stories, where hazmat suites were traipsing around. My house is in Kirkland, and it was surreal returning and having lockdown kick in immediately upon return.

Also huge props to the fellow in charge of pandemic response in Washington State. There was an article I read last year where he discussed how he had the idea to get Microsoft, Amazon, and Google together to communicate a rapid, strong response to message to the local community how absolutely critical the situation was.

Ah! I found it! Whole thing is a great read:

Constantine thought that announcing school closings was a potent communication strategy for reaching even people who weren’t parents, because it forced the community to see the coronavirus crisis in a different light. “We’re accustomed to schools closing when something really serious happens,” Constantine told me. “It was a way to speed up people’s perceptions—to send a message they could understand.”

While the logistics of classroom closures were being worked out, Constantine contacted Brad Smith, the president of Microsoft—which is headquartered in Redmond, east of Seattle—and asked him to consider ordering employees to work from home. “Microsoft is a big deal here,” Constantine told me. “I thought if they told everyone to stay home it could shift how the state was thinking—make the pandemic real.” Microsoft, as a tech company, was poised to switch quickly to remote work, and could demonstrate to other businesses that the transition could occur smoothly. On March 4th, with only twelve known covid -19 fatalities across the nation and no diagnoses among Microsoft workers, the company told employees to stay home if they could. Smith told me, “King County has a strong reputation for excellent public-health experts, and the worst thing we could have done is substitute our judgment for the expertise of people who have devoted their lives to serving the public.” Amazon, which is also headquartered in the area, told many of its local employees to work from home as well. “That’s a hundred thousand people suddenly staying home,” one Seattle resident told me. “From commute traffic alone, you knew something big had happened.”
Seattle’s Leaders Let Scientists Take the Lead. New York’s Did Not | The New Yorker

Also came across this piece (disclaimer, I work for Microsoft), which does a good job showing some of the internal efforts that was taking place. Been there 20 years, and IMHO Satya is soooo much better in every way than Ballmer for the business(the former encourages us to pursue a growth mindset, in act and deed not just words, whereas Ballmer cultivated a culture of backstabbing self-service).
Quiet collective: The unseen experts behind Microsoft’s coronavirus response - Stories

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In my SW corner of Washington state, most people are still wearing masks, at least indoors, but every time I’ve gone in the grocery store lately, there’s been a different idiot white dude with his face hanging out. (I’m a white dude, too.)

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Uhg, Alameda County in California is “orange” and now allows restaurants to operate indoors at 50% capacity.

Dining is one of the the perfect storms for covid transmission. Spending a long time indoors, in close proximity to other people, unmasked, talking (talking generates something like 10x the aerosols of simply breathing, and way more if the person talking is a super emitter).

And 50% capacity is ridiculous. The rated safe occupancy levels have nothing to do with their potential safety from a respiratory disease spread by aerosols!!! The capacity is based on how many people can rush out the exits in a fire, not on the cubic volume of air, the air circulation or filtration, or anything to do with covid safety.

I want to blame Gavin Newsom, and I do, but I blame the dumb arses in the red counties more. Effing short sighted, selfish, Randian plague rats that they are.

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Two weeks ago I had my first ER shift in a over a year when I did not have to wear full PPE a single time. I didn’t actually notice it until after I got home, whence I proceeded to choke up* I knew it didn’t mean the end of the covid hell, but it was such a dramatic change. I’ve had to suit up on every shift since, but not on every patient, so there’s that.

Cases in Colorado have plateaued, and somehow so many many peope have decided that means everything is ok and we can forget about it. Luckily, the demand for vaccines is huge, and even though many places are dropping restrictions, mask use seems to be staying high.

*ER nurses never cry, of course, Not ever.

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Yep. The company I work for did a study showing exactly that, and talking loudly (or singing) is much worse than regular talking. That’s why choirs and bars have been associated with super spreader events. It’s a bad idea to allow bars and indoor dining right now, but if they are going to open, just turning the background music way down so that people can have quiet conversations may make a significant difference in spread. Certain theme parks in California are reducing ambient music volumes for that reason.

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And I’m convinced that social media IS The Great Filter.

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I’m actually a bit bummed. Your chart looks to be the whole state. In King County (Seattle+suburbs) the trend up is more pronounced (the dotted lines will very likely resolve upward). Through that plateau they’ve had two phases of openings and schools start to open next week. I think I saw some news story that Microsoft’s Redmond campus is opening again, but I doubt that means a significant change (perhaps symbolic, though). Hospitalizations are up, too, but thankfully deaths have continued to drop to almost none.

I have seen pretty good mask compliance–even with kids or people out for a walk. The other weekend I noticed more density when shopping and figured I just need to get more comfortable with this all ending and not freaking out when I see a bare face or a huddle of people.

The difference so huge that it is crazily non-intuitive. At a dinner of five unmasked people, if they all start talking it’s like having 50 unmasked people all crammed into the same space.

Also, since non-medical masks are often only around 50% effective at source control (if you are lucky) that means that being next to a person talking with a mask on is like being next to 5 unmasked people who aren’t talking.

Staying the eff away from talking people may be one of the most important things you can do to avoid Covid transmission (well, along with all the other things…)

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They’re in the blue counties too. So many full restaurants out here. And the governor made himself a poster child for it when he was caught at the French Laundry. Just made the red team that much worse.

Also the whole “we’re shutting everything down, too fucking bad if that means you have no money” plan really hasn’t helped.

I’m hopeful for the summer, but it’s going to be a grisly ride until then. And that’s only for those who make it to the summer.

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That’s what they get for not valuing the telephone sanitizers.

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Nailed it on the head.
It’d be interesting to see the PR effectiveness of this completely ominous metaphor… but hyperbole is and forever will be my sworn enemy.

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My bet (and that of several thoughtful people I know) is that this won’t become manageable until next Xmas - and this is in Canada.

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Twelve months ago my travel plans for this week were:

  • Adelaide
  • Seattle (MS Redmond campus)
  • Bendigo (Easter with family)
  • Stockholm (Saab office).
  • Adelaide

It was going to be the crappiest crap travel week, but amazing for getting a couple of big jobs started.
Obviously none of that happened, and I can’t see any of it happening for years to come but through unexpectedly high levels of gross competence this is Australia (local cases) for the last 28 days.

That little blip lead to ~3 million people having mandatory mask wearing, because nobody want the BS that you guys are living through.

Don’t give up, don’t walk into that nightmare, you can get there, but also ask your leaders why can’t you be as good as…

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