Football/soccer fans in the US should have known better after what happened in England in 2015-16. Leicester City were given a 0.02% chance of winning the Premier League, but ended the season by lifting the trophy. After seeing that you learn the difference between improbable and impossible.
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Don’t believe the polls. Don’t believe the polls. Vote.
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I don’t count Rasmussen anymore. ABC and CNN are leaning in that direction too.
Late last month, the editorial director of data analytics at ABC News — and its subsidiary, the popular data-oriented news site FiveThirtyEight — threatened to “formally ban” Rasmussen Reports from its election coverage, including removing it from election forecasting models, unless it answered questions about methodology and its relationship with several right-wing outlets, including Bannon’s “War Room.”
ABC News wouldn’t be alone: CNN doesn’t report on Rasmussen Reports poll results because they don’t meet the network’s editorial standards, analysts there have noted in the past. Referring to those standards, a spokesperson for the network told HuffPost, “We can confirm this still reflects our current reporting standards.”
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Gotta say, I felt exactly the same complacency. There was absolutely no way I could picture TFG being elected. I just couldn’t imagine anyone being not seeing what an obvious sham he was. I was so very wrong.
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I would prefer if progressives would “Raise Hell and vote”.
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… those don’t matter either
The future is unknowable, anything could happen
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I just misread “No Labels” as “No Liberals”, but I’m not convinced I got it wrong. I think that might be their goal.
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Still true…
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Exactly. The point isn’t for Manchin to win Wisconsin, or really anywhere, the point is for him to win 2% there and throw the state (and Michigan and PA) to Trump while Biden racks up a 70% victory in New York and California. The last two elections were decided by less than a football stadium of voters in 5 states. GA was famously won by 10,000 votes. Cornell West could throw this thing, and demonstrably the Green Party has now done that twice.
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Yes, and stories like this may make the decision for Manchin and other 3rd party candidates to jump in easier because it makes it look like they can do their grift with no impact on the outcome.
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I think people also need to recognize the ceiling on Trump’s numbers is a lot more substantive than before. His people have hand-waved Jan 6th, but that’s a significant roadblock, alongside all the rising court cases during campaign season.
The measure isn’t whether he can convince his own people; it’s whether he can move the undecideds.
I’m not saying he should be underestimated, just that he’s much more publicly, provably compromised than previous. Cracks are showing and they need a hammer brought against them.
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Pat Buchanan (with at least 2000 votes higher than expected) and the Palm Beach Butterfly Ballot lost Al Gore the 2000 election, but establishment Democratic Party politicians love to take any opportunity to bash the left when they should be defending against the right.
That said, Bernie Sanders had the right idea when he decided to run in the Democratic primaries instead of for another party.
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I remember people saying that here
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Dunno. Misinformation is a hell of a drug.
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Sure, Buchanan coulda dropped out, but since he was a fascist like Trump I doubt he could be made to care about Bush winning. But Nader sure could have dropped out and that would have stopped W from winning. Same thing as Jill Stein in 2016… she got more votes that the margin of victory between Trump and Hillary in MI, WI and PA. And yeah, you’ll likely trot out that “these voters would have stayed home.” Yknow who thinks that’s bullshit? Trumps Maga people who are trying to get Manchin and Cornell West to run.
The Bush-Gore election was close enough that any number of factors could have tipped it either way, and all of them can in consequence be blamed for the outcome. The same is true for Trump’s victory, and the Republicans would very much like to set up as much as possible to raise the odds for another one.
But if we are apportioning blame, I’d like to remember the underlying reason things tip that easily is just how many people did vote for the Republicans and how much weight they have thanks to an incredibly skewed political and media landscape. A handful of votes for a Nader or Stein shouldn’t ruin a country.
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The issue with Buchanan was that the known anti-Semite insisted that elderly Jewish Dems in Miami intentionally voted for him, even after it became clear they were confused by the badly designed ballot that @anon73430903 mentions. Of course, the GOP and Florida election officials chose to believe his ridiculous narrative. It was one of several incidents that the Cheney/Bush campaign exploited.
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I remember every time I saw it said here, people would say “go vote, 17% of the models still predicting him winning is him WINNING.”
There were a lot of different opinions here. Not too many pro Trump, but a lot who have obviously never talked to a trump supporter ever and thus downplayed the chances of him winning. You’re right, the debate was mostly vote third party vs vote Democratic, but the people who thought Clinton’s victory was a forgone conclusion were already in her camp.
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