The real test will be to see if Labour people turn out to vote LibDem in areas like the south-west. I actually suspect that more than a few Tories may keep their seats because of a three-way split (there were a couple of those in 2019; I can imagine there being quite a few more this time around.) Obviously not all of those three-way split seats will stay Tory, but whereas LibDems are used to voting Labour to keep Tories out (which why the pain of 2010 was so strong), the reverse is definitely not true.
Then again, if this is 1997, then a lot of Tory voters are just going to stay at home, and it may not matter at all.
With Reform in the mix as well, a number of seats in some areas are going to end up in super unpredictable 4-way contests. I expect the final seat tally to be wildly unpredictable at the margin, depending ultimately on a few thousand pivotal votes.
As I think Iâve mentioned before, Iâm in Islington North. And I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen here! I think the new Labour guy will take it, but this is the first time in thirty years that weâve ever had actual canvassers (actually, thatâs unfair. I live in the one ânon-Labourâ council ward which has been voting Green in locals for the last decade or so, and theyâve always taken the effort to come round.)
I donât think I could want to vote Tory any less than I do right now (they currently rank behind spoiling my vote), but Sunak is trying his best to prove me wrong.
Ugh, just had the quite awkward conversation with Mum in that she REALLY does not want to vote Reform, unless she thinks the Tories are not extreme enoughâŚ
(She was genuinely considering them as an anti-Tory party. Sheesh the influence of the mainstream media in this country is insane, but thats where she gets all her news fromâŚ)
A good example that shows billionaire bosses are really just naive mediocrities who are far stupider than they would like us to think they are, but a fool and his money are easily parted. It was entertaining to watch him on BBCâs Newsnight flounder quite spectacularly when his past words on what a great PM Truss would make came back to haunt him.
Reform are just UKIP with the numbers filed off who were in turn the BNP with slightly better suits, but either way they are a party chock full of fash scum and villainy. Jonathan Pieâs video further up in this thread makes an excellent complement to this one and we all know populism sounds good to certain people but these grifters will sell them out first chance they get.
(actually, thatâs unfair. I live in the one ânon-Labourâ council ward which has been voting Green in locals for the last decade or so, and theyâve always taken the effort to come round.)
