Edit of a deleted comment, I believe because I characterized someone as having a mental health diagnosis. No aspersions or associations meant:
Caputo, in charge of communications for HHS, is extremely dangerous in that he’s acting irrationally, verbally attacking CDC scientists as enemies of Trump, and seems to be campaigning for their assassination. https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/88623
ETA: Meaning no aspersions against people with mental health diagnoses, many of my nearest and dearest have them. Aspersions against Caputo, though, because fuck that guy.
You’re imagining just Trump discounting and rejecting the election results. I think if it happens, it will be far more than Trump. The overall nature of this year’s election leaves a lot of room for dishonest people to come together and throw the whole process into doubt.
I would go much further: talking up this scenario is functionally the same as actively praying for it. Of course the Republican junta would try this if they could; that’s not the question. The question is, are you going to give them space for that bullshit?
Because when you speculate about this, what you’re saying is “I’m open to the idea that Turmp will still be president even if he loses the election”. You are undermining the idea that the election will be decisive.
Actually, I think that Trump loves the fact that the cult worships him unconditionally and he can’t even imagine losing to Biden. Trump has stated that the only possible way to lose is if the opposition cheats.
Agree. I live in a seriously red state and it is unfortunate that my vote is cast for Trump completely independent of who I select on the ballot. I generally vote third party as a result. This year I will be casting my vote for Biden.
I couldn’t disagree with this more. Preparing for what to do in the event of a hurricane when one can see it forming isn’t actively praying for the hurricane, it’s recognizing that something bad may happen and we’d better have our shit together in that event.
We have a President who is openly and explicitly laying the groundwork for not accepting the results of the election. If Biden and Democratic leadership are not spending real resources making sure they’re prepared in that event (up to and including what their plans are for if people with guns are being given orders that conflict with those being given to other people with guns) they they are committing malpractice.
Is it more likely than not that Trump refuses to concede an election he’s lost? Probably not. But when the stakes are this high and the waters this uncharted, how on earth can we ignore the possibility when they keep saying the quiet part loud?
That’s why I’m hoping that something causes the people that voted for Trump eventually have a “come to Jesus” moment before that happens. People won’t accept help if they don’t that think they have a problem.
Agreed. But I think he’s set himself up to be worshiped as a god by that ilk even if he loses.
It’s impossible to know what’s really going on in that skull of his. In this case how much of what he says publicly is what he really believes, and how much is the standard salesman pitch. We know he was lying publicly about the dangers of COVID and he knew he was lying, so it’s hard to know if he really truly believes the other side is cheating, or if claiming that is just another part of his strategy; winning at all costs.
Things happen because people make them happen. Nothing in our system is self-executing, and that’s part of what I was getting at above re: the thought that institutions and norms would save us.
What happens if Trump is ahead in the polls on election night and then declares the remaining votes invalid because of widespread voter fraud and directs GOP governors to act accordingly? What happens if Barr announces that they have evidence that China rigged the election for Biden and McConnell suggests that the DOJ has to perform an investigation before electors can be counted?
I have no idea what the outcome of these things would be, and anybody telling you they do know is lying. I suspect that Biden would end up as President at the end of most of these scenarios, but I have no confidence that there wouldn’t be both bloodshed and a permanent erosion of our democracy as a result.
(I do agree that “President Pelosi” is not even remotely on the table, however)
Democrats already have put together a legal War Room to counter electoral chicanery.
And then there’s what you can do ahead of time (other than the essential work of getting in your vote, and helping friends do the same):
Write letters to the editor, denouncing the president’s “vote is rigged” threat.
Write to your state’s Secretary of State and Governor, demanding that they count every vote, defend the integrity and independence of your state’s election system, and urge that they make a joint statement TO THE PRESIDENT that will not put up with his lies and attacks.
Also write your representative and senators, and suggest they make a parallel effort, calling out Trump and his enablers. Here is the email I sent to my Members of Congress:
Note enough for you? There are well-organized groups working on responses to Trump’s bullying. Read their guide. Find an Indivisible group or the like who are participating.
He may cause some civil unrest, but there is no way he actually can stay in power. He simply does not have enough of the key holders on his side, specifically the military.
Sure, that’s an issue for certain elected politicians and public servants. Hopefully they are making plans for all eventualities.
But if you’re an ordinary member of the public, your role is to give your unconditional support to the result of the election. And you’re not really doing that if you endorse a new narrative where the election is followed by a separate fight over the result.
If the consensus says Turmp will attempt a coup, and builds it up like the Rumble in the Jungle, then it probably will happen. I mean, we’re talking about an election here; the collective belief of the public is a pretty major factor in how it pans out.
That’s why they do Monte Carlo simulations. Each state has a predicted vote probability distribution based on a weighted poll results (weighted based on number of people, age of the poll, trustworthiness of poll, etc.). The use this to create “dice” for each state, then roll those dice for all 50 states, adding up the electoral votes (yes, they take into account states that do split electoral votes). The tally determines the winner.
This is done 40,000 times. The tallies are divided by 40,000 to get the probabilities. It sits at about a 25/75 split right now, which would be 10,000 simulation wins for Trump, 30,000 wins for Biden.
The model doesn’t take into account what you and I might think (I think there is a bigger chance red states to flip). It’s pure math. Which given how our gut feelings don’t agree, is a good thing. It’s as accurate possible given known data.
Unfortunate for him, the most damning charges are at state level. Can’t be pardoned by himself or Pence. Plenty to end up in jail for decades on without even a whisper of federal involvement.
