The Russians may not be losing but by now it should be obvious that they aren’t winning, either.
The whole “special military operation” was based on the notion that most of the Ukrainians would be enthusiastic about finally being reunited with Mother Russia, and that resistance would fold very quickly. That presumption was obviously fallacious. Now even if the Russians manage to take Kyiv, depose the hugely-popular-among-Ukrainians Zelenskiy, and install a puppet government, Ukraine is a vast place and will be impossible or at least very expensive to hold on to in the long term. So even if Putin “wins”, he can’t win. Russia may eventually prevail on the battlefield but as things look now, there is no scenario in which this war turns Ukraine into a nation of happy campers who sing the Russian national anthem in blissful chorus every morning.
Where did I say any of that? I pointed out that Putin has made some foolish decisions (e.g. surprising his own troops) and assumptions (e.g. that the rest of the world would roll over on military aid to Ukraine). In another post, I mentioned that if an intel report is to be believed then Putin has only 10 days to finish this before he’s screwed on logistics and supplies (which, given reports of the behaviour of Russian troops, may actually be an optimistic assessment of Putin’s runway).
I’m not discounting his going totally barbaric/scorched-Earth at all. I’ve mentioned the possibility that he could turn Kyiv into Grozny several times.
My experience living 2.5 years there was that imports were mostly luxury goods. They have the ability to feed themselves for a long time, though there will be rationing, and if the wheat harvest doesn’t go well, that’ll be a difficult time. The problem with rationing is that it will be seen as a step backward for Russia, and totally Putin’s fault for the unnecessary invasion of Ukraine. There’s already large discontent in the country. Sanctions and rationing will only make it worse.
Even pre-war, the places I’d live the conscripts would be asking for food and cigarettes from holes in the base walls. I didn’t smoke, but occasionally I’d donate a loaf of bread or two (they were a dime to a quarter a piece). In peacetime they weren’t fed well. I don’t expect an invasion to be any different.
Also electronics and household appliances, at least if you want decent quality. But agreed, average Russians should be self-sufficient (though pinched) on the basics like food and clothing for a while and their construction industry can chug along without imports.
Exactly. I noted elsewhere that a lot of Russians clearly and bitterly remember the privation of the 1990s. They don’t want a repeat of that and if they get it they’ll know who to blame.
I keep expecting some event to finally break the GOP in two, but after Jan. 6th 2021 it’s clear their one true talent is twisting themselves out of shape to escape whatever trap they’ve laid for themselves.
They’re immune from breaking because to their base, the positions of the GOP don’t matter, other than guns, god and gays. It seems like “owning the libs” is driving force of the GOP base.
Russia’s imports are about 45% machinery, equipment and transport (presumably planes, trains, and automobiles), 19% chemicals (including pharmaceuticals), and 15% food and agricultural products. Some of that stuff they can source in places that are still happy to deal with them (although even China is starting to be a little bit reluctant) but other things are probably hard to replace at a moment’s notice. For example, Aeroflot these days flies mostly Boeing and Airbus aircraft, and getting spare parts for those might prove more difficult under the upcoming sanctions regime.
And as many people have reiterated Ukraine does not have to defeat Russia, they just have to endure. Even the most dedicated Russian soldiers will want to go home sooner or later. The Ukrainians are already there.
I assumed he was doing this because he had a successor chosen and was going out in flames, but I figured the successor would have coup’d him by now if that was actually the case.
Yeah but there are some that manage to fall rotate a front man in place and operate in the background after “retiring.” It’s also hard to find logic in whatever the hell he’s doing.
An orderly succession means that you are not irreplaceable. Dictators need to deter coup attempts by giving the impression that everything would collapse without them and nobody else would be able to take control of the country.
