I think it’s this paper from London:
Gritty is getting around, tho!
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curious if exit polling is any better than pre election polling, and also: how would we know?
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I think you can at least see if your sample matches up with the actual results, right?
Being sold to help the Dems
Bought an orange one, ‘natch. I can alternate with my bad things happen in Philadelphia tee.
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I was literally sobbing listening to that. I motherfucking double dare you to keep a dry eye watching that.
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you can’t tie a vote to a voter because it’s anonymous. you have to trust that the people you polled are telling you the truth. so if regular polls led to being far off the mark ( esp see florida ) – is exit polling really more trustworthy?
the best you could do for verification ( as far as i can figure ) is check the demography of individual precincts to the extent that information is available. the partys have that kind of information, but i’m not sure it’s always something that individual districts themselves compile. and while, it might in some places include race, it wouldn’t usually include something like sexual orientation.
basically, you’re just trusting that people are accurately reporting their votes and demographics to you. same as the (failed) pre-polling.
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Edit:
You have no standing to sue here.
The full court press is on:
The electoral college count is going against President Trump. His efforts to overturn those results in courts are unlikely to succeed. So some Republicans — including the president’s son — are starting to promote a bid to have GOP-controlled state legislatures undo the will of the voters in states won by former vice president Joe Biden.
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“How dare you let so many Black people register to vote, and then give them ballots, and then count those ballots! You idiot!”
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“And how dare you not kowtow to Dear Leader?” This is what’s risked by anyone who associates himself with the Death Cult party. Eventually, those leopards might come for your face, too.
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If you have a sample of 1000 voters and 90% say they voted for X but the actual results are that 55% actually voted for Y then you know something is wrong. Either people are lying or the sampling is terrible. If the exit polls matches the actual results closely then you at least have a small amount of evidence that the results of the poll are not badly wrong. An I somehow misunderstanding your question?
Plenty of time yet to impeach his ass. Plenty of time.
Or your sampling neglects significant samples of voters who vote differently than your exit poll sample, a.k.a. Mail-in votes. To paraphrase Nate Silver, “Exit polls, which are dodgy to begin with, are going to be downright useless in 2020.”
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Making Americans even less safe. Well done, Trump. If he had put forth even a tenth of the effort on COVID as he has with these post-election shenanigans he may have won re-election.
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I will leave this here for contemplation:
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He said they would be useless for predicting the outcome of the election. He repeatedly mentioned that the purpose of exit polls was for after-the-fact analysis and would have to include sampling of the mail-in voters. He didn’t outright discount their utility in doing after-the-fact analysis.
I don’t know whether exit polling is any good anyway, but in this election it is a total joke. People who mailed in our dropped of ballots didn’t exit the polls. So at best it’s polling of people who voted in person, which skews it badly. Also, I really think that since significant number of trump voters would lie to create the appearance of a diverse coalition. (Not that I think being gay makes you immune to bring fascist)
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