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Unlike China and the United States, it has no soft power to exercise.
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Hmm. Looks like the Armenia Azerbaijan war is heating up.
As the grinding war in Ukraine enters its second month, tensions flared in another former Soviet region, where Azerbaijan and Armenia fought a war in 2020 as Azerbaijani troops moved into territory patrolled by Russian peacekeepers, Moscow said in a statement on Saturday.
The Russian defense ministry said that the Azerbaijani forces had launched four drone strikes against the army of Nagorno-Karabakh, a disputed mountain enclave that is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but claims independence and is closely allied with Armenia.
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Just for the record: I was serious.
Try to imagine this is what the Russian decision makers planned.
Just to give you guys an impulse for your imagination: millions of displaced persons already, many of whom are in the EU right now, and probably will have to stay there for a very long time. Maybe, for the rest of their lives. Internal political struggle within the EU already happening about that. Meanwhile, pushbacks in Greece and Italy and a Turkey which basically is functioning as a buffer state. Middle East and Africa notice, already have support from Russia (see, e.g., Wagner group activities, soft power through wheat and other grains).
All NATO partners taking Russia as a serious threat. NATO eastern members pushing for massive military investment by all other members. Re-militarisation of German foreign policy. All in all, a credible external threat for Russia, i.e. support for internal hard measures and support for a stable militarised gouvernement.
Gas and oil market left in insecurity. Massive economical crisis on the horizon for the EU, especially in Germany. Discussion amongst Russiaâs opponents about the dependence of Germany on Russian raw materials. International legitimacy of (past and current) German politics and policies towards Russia is being questioned. Massive domestic legitimacy problem for decisions made by the new, green-backed coalition in Germany which needs to make deals with countries having a terrible track record on human rights ASAP. Meanwhile, France on the verge to a right-wing shift. Makes it easy to paint France as a threat, Germany as dishonest.
Meanwhile, Ukraine destabilised. Military ability may or may not be decimated, but definitely the Ukraine will focus on military and not on economical progress from now on. Country might be on the verge of bankruptcy, I would guess. Coal, grains, uranium from Ukrainian currently arenât produced, and if they would be, might not be able to be transported out of the country due to Russia interference and control of the Black Sea.
It might seem like Russia is loosing the war in Ukraine, but this might - just MIGHT - be a short term perspective.
I really, really would like to have some people who are more knowledgeable than me analysing this shit.
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The Daily Kos piece posted by @KathyPartdeux says that a wider war would at least avoid the humiliation of being defeated by Ukraine.
Russia wants the broader war. They want to face a peer opponent, so when they loseâand theyâll loseâit wonât be to a country they donât even consider a country. Losing to the West would fuel decades of victim narratives. Losing to Ukraine is just sad. And the world will laugh at them. And with the myth shattered, their empire will disintegrate.
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I dunno, man. While itâs always a bad idea to assume your adversaries are stupid, itâs probably just as bad to assume that theyâre some kind of peerless mastermind of planning, effortlessly manipulating the entire world into their long-term plans.
On edit: The main point against such a machination is the way the Russian army ate shit for weeks attacking a place they claimed wasnât even a real country. Is the kind of person whoâd become an autocrat also the kind of person whoâd think âFirst, Iâll engineer a humiliating stalemate for my countryâ?
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I donât think Putin intended this, but he will seek to spin it - and change his tactics as needed - to maximise the benefit to himself and to his concept of Russia, however much he did not want and did not expect to be here. I think @LutherBlissetâs thinking may have some small grains of Putin-truth in it.
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So in the past few years fuckwads have managed to ruin the letters Q and Z. Whatâs next?
They were powerful words, yet the media canât stop circle jerking over his ad lib about how Putin can no longer remain in power.
Hard to find fault in this sentiment, but you know the saying â âmoving at the speed of governmentâ. I sure wouldnât want to be one of the many hundreds if not thousands of politicians, military, government, and other personnel from many different nations in the middle of this logistical and humanitarian mess trying to sort all this shit out without unwittingly or accidentally triggering the next World War.
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Hey, at least weâre doing better than Greek, right?
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Our world sucks so bad that good intentions turn into this mess. It sucks that the bad people in this world create so many nightmares for the most vulnerable people and those honestly trying to help.
But this kid should have known better or at least consulted with someone.
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Tech bro: thinks a complex problem can be solved easily with a minimum amount of work.
The solution: is a disaster
Tech bro:
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From The Guardian liveblog (you need to go there to see the pics and tweets re this current report - I was only able to copy some text over)
It is 1am in Ukraine and Ukrainian troops are reporting that Russian forces are deploying white phosphorus against them near the eastern city of Avdiivka.
While these reports canât be confirmed, this is not the first time Ukraine has talked about Russia using white phosphorus in the invasion. This week, Volodymyr Zelenskiy told Nato leaders that âthere were phosphorus bombs, phosphorus Russian bombsâ. âAdults were killed again and children were killed again,â he said.
White phosphorus is used in war for a number of reasons - when a munition containing it explodes, the chemical inside creates a thick white cloud that many countries have utilized as a way to create a smokescreen for cover or to send a signal to troops.
But white phosphorous burns at the extremely high temperature of 800 degrees Celsius or above, meaning that it could burn straight through to the bone if it were to come into contact with human flesh. It can also enter the bloodstream with prolonged exposure and poison organs like the heart, liver and kidneys and cause multiple organ failure. The smoke created by the substance itself can also damage the lungs.
When asked about Zelenskiyâs comments on Russia using phosphorus bombs, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia âhas never violated international conventionsâ.
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Word play. Do they even see this as an international conflict?
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(my emphasis)
Fuck. I really donât want to be the whaddabout guy today. But heâs not wrong.
Back when TDGWTFGMLS [1] was in charge of the clusterfuck of Iraq, a whole lot of us were screaming that lowering international norms (munitions used, how PoWs are treated, etc) has a price. If you canât follow the norms for ethical reasons, at least consider the fucking cost.
Fuck.
[1] The Dumb Guy Who The Former Guy Made Look Smart, aka Shrub
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