2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine (Part 1)

22 Likes
13 Likes

Pièce de rÊsistance!

22 Likes

Apparently it’s insta-cremation and scattering for Russia’s dead. Corpses are bad for morale, don’t you know

9 Likes

Really cool photo of him with the same swirls on his shirt as on the tank. Very powerful image.

…and by shirt, I mean hoodie. And by hoodie, I mean get off my lawn.

10 Likes
11 Likes
13 Likes

It’s weird that we’ve been in the pandemic long enough that I can think that it would have shown more solidarity had Biden and team worn disposable surgical masks then their sharp black (and one white) numbers.

4 Likes
15 Likes

something about windmills and the perfect slice of chocolate cake

13 Likes

Just the US anti-aircraft Stinger and anti-tank Javelin missiles, and Turkey’s Bayraktar drones have so far shown just how far behind Russia is when it comes to conventional warfare… poor Russian logistics notwithstanding. But the UK is now deploying their Starstreak anti-aircraft missile to Ukraine. One report indicates that a number of Ukrainian soldiers have already been trained for its use. Bad news for the Russian air force. In velocity, range, and resistance to countermeasures, the Starstreak is vastly superior to the Stinger. Three delayed explosion penetrator “darts” per launch for near guaranteed hits. The video says its speed is “about Mach 3”. It’s actually closer to Mach 4. A Mach 4 shoulder-fired missile. But with the Russians now learning how to shoot down the Bayraktar drones (which were being used to take out Russian artillery sites), the war is now more like Ukrainian artillery versus Russian artillery. Now they’re just pounding each other with shells. I don’t want to imagine what Russia’s militarily will do next to tip the scales their way. (C’mon sanctions!!)

11 Likes

In light of the sanctions, Putin may now be jealously admiring Trump’s ready access to DEPENDS.

6 Likes

It may have gone a little too far when some hackers think it is obvious that EVERYONE with experience of pentesting or hacking has an “obligation” to get involved. :thinking:

There´s a risk that hacking can escalate things to an unpredictable level, so hackers should probably avoid satellites, nuclear power plants and anything that affects infrastructure.

hacker hacking GIF

9 Likes

Destabilized Ukraine and a refugee crisis were probably in the “pros” column for Putin when planning the invasion.

Not sure about the rest, though. Putin benefited from NATO and EU that he could paint as boogeymen for the domestic audience, but which were actually quite toothless, and whose members were very happily buying lots of Russian gas. Germany who willingly became dependent on imports from Russia being the prime example. So a united West that is actively cutting business ties with Russia and taking defense seriously is not a good thing for Putin.

He probably hoped to avoid that by achieving a quick victory over Ukraine. Remember that it took about 24 hours after the invasion for the EU to agree on any sanctions at all, and several days before it rolled out the more substantial stuff (e.g. SWIFT bans). If during those first 24 hours Russia had achieved if not an outright victory, then at least some tangible progress towards it (taking over some sizeable city, forcing Zelensky to flee from Kyiv, getting some Ukrainian military units or regional governments to surrender), then business interests may have prevailed, Western unity would have failed to crystallize and Russia would have gotten away with a slap on the wrist, much like after the annexation of Crimea.

15 Likes

new yorker has a story on the sanctions package

9 Likes
17 Likes

It would make it easy for any Russian art critics to find him.

3 Likes

Wow. That thread is an eye opener - how long before enough younger Russians turn against Putin?

7 Likes

Galeev argues that people won’t turn against Putin directly, because that would be too big and too difficult. Instead regional separatist movements will grow, but only after regional governors have begun to isolate their regions economically.

Russian economic situation is awful. It’s a catastrophe which local authorities will be blamed for. What they’re gonna do? Stock up. Stock as much as possible. That’s already happening. Stavropol doesn’t have sugar shortage. Why? They don’t allow exporting it to other regions

That will be the major factor of Russian collapse. It’s not that regional authorities will suddenly declare independence. They won’t, at least for now. It’s that they will act in the best interest of their regions. Because if a catastrophe happens there, they’ll be blamed for it

In acting in the best interest of their regions under the deficit of literally everything they’ll inevitably stock up, thus breaking supply lines and technological chains. With the communication lines deteriorating due to sanctions it will be easier and easier to do

Russia won’t fall because of collective morally justified action. It’s cohesion will be broken by its own officials aiming to avoid catastrophe in their own region. That will be a de facto economic separatism, political one will come much later

In discussing the collapse of Russia and rise of separatist states on its ruins, many focus on ethnic conflicts and identity politics. That’s not completely wrong. I’ll argue however that the main drivers of collapse will be geographic and socio economic

20 Likes

China’s brief invasion of Vietnam isn’t much talked about today during the Ukraine crisis. None of the western actors wants to bring it up when they are trying to pressure China over its general fixation on the sanctity of national sovereignty. And Moscow won’t mention it, because it brings back an awkward memory for their friends in Beijing: China’s 1979 venture wasn’t really about Vietnam, but about Russia.

11 Likes