The cost differential between the Russian and Ukrainian weapons systems is staggering.
The NLAW disposable missile costs around $25,000, and the Javelin rocket launcher system costs about $180,000 and fires a missile that costs around $75,000. Both rocket launchers are being used in Ukraine to destroy tanks that cost upwards of $2 million each.
It’s even better when you consider the RPG-7, which costs around $1,000 and fires missiles that can cost as little as $100 each. (Costs can go up to as much as $500 for RPG warheads when they use armor piercing or air-burst technology.) Their cost-effectiveness is amazing when you consider that they’re being used to knock out Russian APCs costing more than $1 million each. In Iraq, the same RPGs were used by insurgents to bring down American Apache and Blackhawk helicopters that cost between $6 million and $13 million each, depending on the model and year of manufacture.
Quite a lot of consumer drones have GPS functions, and can be popped right into mapping software. And there are plenty of off the shelf surveying drones used in things like construction, while not iPhone cheap they’re very around. My brother got involved in those for bit while working in excavation and large scale construction projects. It’s become a fairly common small business/self employment setup in construction.
It’s not gonna be “marking” obviously. But either would make coordinates, for the construction drones pretty damn accurate ones, pretty easy to come by.
There’s apparently a company in the US that makes modernized RPGs for exactly this reason. Dumb cheap, ammo is everywhere, and the US military buys them to provide as military aid.
Yes, many drones can tell you their own coordinates. Using ones position to calculate coordinates of an object on the ground with any degree of precision is not as easy.
Its helpful if you have a gimballed camera. Then you can use the AZ-EL of the gimbal and a bunch of geometry to calculate the relative position of your target. You still need to know the lever arm of your gimballed camera, and somehow need to calculate the target elevation too. A laser rangefinder might help, but again we are outside of the realm of i-phone prices here. A DTED map would also be useful but now youre adding a lot of local processing. You also have to factor in your own local drift (so now you need an INS too).
But if you can get a good picture you can matchy-match to Google Earth and get coordinates good enough for artillery to use.
For sure. And still not an easy thing to do, and to coordinate with artillery. I would bet that spotting for reconnaissance and tracking would be the main things.
I’m not sure that the iPhone prices would matter as much with regards to the construction drones, cause like I said they are very around. If probably a bit less so in Ukraine. Though there have been people sending commercial drones to Ukraine as well.
One of the guys my brother worked with was using them to layout pools, and the town my grandparents lived in used them for property tax assessment (controversially). The entire idea with those is accurate measurements and coordinates on/of the ground not the drone.
They’re generally $20k or less, simpler ones are less than $10k. And there are apparently software packages that let you use higher end consumer drones with the right bits and bobs to do some of the same work, do that hard math bit.
From what I gather it’s not a field where you generally have to manually tie an image and the drones coordinates to Google Earth.
I know there are commercial drones doing great things for construction companies.
But the article was around what capabilities this team in Ukraine has while operating technology you could get at less than i-phone prices, and I was addressing those limitations.
Absolutely. Thats called a “shift from known point”. Fire a round, watch where it hits, then adjust. It does rely on rapid dissemination of data though, such as a forward observer with a radio calling the shots. So long as cell networks are still working it is doable.
I think at least a portion of the home built weapons thing in Ukraine is messaging. Some of the things that have come up are debatably useful, and it’s very likely they’re leaving a lot unsaid.
So in terms of what sorts of commercial drones are likely to already be in Ukraine, I’d expect there to be some of these construction drones floating around. But some of the consumer models that can be used with tweaks and 3rd party software are absolutely iPhone priced.
ETA: worth mentioning those consumer drones are not up to the tasks the pricey ones are for.
According to my brother who considered getting into this. You can’t really start with cheap drones and software and graduate to the bigger stuff. Enthusiast and researchers use them where don’t need the same precision or features. And the pros use them as a supplement. Apparently it’s very specific models that are worth using. They aren’t the ones your dad (or at least my dad) plays with on vacation.
But it does sound like it’d be a close enough for artillery situation from what you’re saying.
As part of the peace deal, Ukraine wants international guarantees they will have back up if Russia invades again. Sort of being in NATO with out actually being in NATO. Of course that isn’t a done deal, but Ukraine is going to want to secure their sovereignty for the future.
It’s kind of the perfect mascot (mascat?) animal for Ukraine. Cute, insanely internet friendly, unexpectedly dangerous, has more lives than most animals/nations, and possessed of a grim dignity that persists through the most ridiculous situations. Ukraine is the world’s internet cat video.
International guarantees like the kind they already had in return for giving up their nuclear arsenal? Much good did those guarantees do them!
It is a hard line in the sand. If Russia invades again NATO countries and forces cannot get involved or we are just back to today’s ‘debate’ about no-fly zones. What Ukraine will need (and hopefully get) is a huge amount of military materiel and economic aid so that they can reinforce their own borders with lots of western technology and munitions. A lot of skills transfer and on-the-ground training also. But ‘back up’ does not mean “sort of being in NATO”.
They’re specifically demanding something clearer and more binding. The phrase “equivalent to article 5” has come up. And it looks like the US and bunch of other NATO members are supporting that.
Seems to be a response to Russia’s statement that they would “allow” Ukraine to join the EU if Ukraine stays out of NATO. The idea is that Russia won’t, and can’t invade again. If NATO, or at least the big member states, are bound to respond.
So give Russia the PR win of Ukraine not in NATO for now, but put the same “Oh no” in place.
It’s probably not going anywhere, Russia is not likely to accept anything short of a big, new, chunk of Ukraine’s territory. And that’s kinda a no go all around.
I.e. a ‘fudge’ which really means “officially you are not in NATO, Ukraine, and Russia can rely on you remaining ‘not a member’ but if Russia comes for you again NATO will behave as if you are in NATO”?
Russia will not fall for that, obviously - even as a face-saving measure - unless they face much more overwhelming and humiliating defeat than currently seems likely - i.e. if face is all they have left to save.
If it gets that far, and Russia has nothing left to save but some face, it can only be for internal consumption.
How humiliated can Putin be but still not press the button is a question I’d rather not ponder. I truly hope that by the time it gets that far, or before it gets that far, the humiliation level will have forced other hands to take him out of the reckoning.
