And Ukraine knows that Russia keeping any territory, never mind anything new, is an automatic ticket for the next round.
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And everyone else seems to know that if not Ukraine then Georgia or somewhere else again.
Almost no party to the negotiations seems to be willing to consider loosening sanctions if there’s a deal.
It’s also pretty clear Russia is not negotiating in good faith. So it’s all more about not letting Russia dictate things and underlining that the international community isn’t about to butt out anytime soon.
No peace deal or diplomatic solution is coming out of this until Russia is otherwise tapped or destabilizes at home. And the idea that a list of countries towing the line of neutrality will keep the status quo has kinda sailed at this point.
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If only there were a way to give concessions from someone other than Ukraine. “How about you stop doing crimes like invading Ukraine, and NATO countries stop doing crimes like invading Iraq” is a world I’d like to see.
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Ukraine will be much better armed and prepared afterwards. Putin’s ability to prosecute a similar offensive will likely be degraded. Assuming sanctions continue for some time.
Ukraine starts with a huge advantage over the Chechen’s - that country has about 1.4 million people. Huge scale difference.
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Basically, until Putin (or whoever takes him out as a result) realises the game is up - because nobody will ever trust him - and that this will not end until he/Russia is in a worse position than last year (i.e is back in the position it was before Crimea and the Eastern regions were invaded), there will be no peace.
I agree with that position on paper. On the ground, however, if Putin sees this is inevitable he will shell the whole of Ukraine (as per Mariupol) until he wins or is forcibly stopped (or runs out of materiel). The human cost will be appalling, the economic cost almost incalculable.
The West must do everything it can to destabilise Putin or exhaust Russia, and if that means the Russian people suffer, so be it, however reluctantly many will want to see that happen. In prosecuting this war the way he has, he has in effect taken the Russian people hostage, and he cannot be negotiated with.
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I don’t really see a world where Russia or any other belligerent of this sort gives two fucks what happens in Iraq.
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Yes and no. Russia mentions things like Serbia and Iraq in its pretexts for war on a fairly regular basis. I think it’s probably genuinely the case that they were unhappy America was assuming the rights to do those kinds of things, if out of jealousy rather than any real concern for the people.
Anyway I know the invasion of Ukraine shows things have gone much past those kind of concerns. Like I said, it’s more just dreaming of a better world than anything I think would really happen.
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The guy on the left is Aleksandr Karelin, former world champion and Olympic winner in Greco-Roman wrestling. He is freaking enormous.
Edit:
I’ve seen reports that the retreating Russian forces may have been systematically murdering civilians. In the city of Bucha, NW of Kyiv, they apparently killed all the men aged between 18 and 60.
I really hope this is inaccurate news, because if it isn’t, if Russians are deliberately slaughtering civilians, this war has just turned far, far worse than we’ve feared. If this is true, I can’t really see Ukraine accepting any peace w. Russia that doesn’t involve Russian forces removed from Ukraine entirely, and the people responsible for these war crimes turned over to Ukrainian courts.
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I mean, depending how the war goes, Russia may not have a choice on what it accepts.
But my understanding of the removal of nuclear weapons from Ukraine, there wasn’t an actual treaty to go to war to defend Ukraine (except possibly with the use of nuclear weapons). Though Russia has broken some of the pledge with the invasion.
So an actual treaty even if it was just with say Poland and Germany and/or the US would go a long way to make it clear the consequences of a 2nd invasion in the future. And from Russians side, a treaty with 2-3 NATO members is better than a treaty with ALL of NATO. And the treaty doesn’t have to be reciprocal. Meaning Ukraine isn’t obligated to join a war if another NATO country was attacked.
I am just saying what Ukraine has been saying it would do. Try to remain “neutral”, while having it in writing that they won’t be alone if Russia tries a 2nd time. I think that is a more than fair compromise. YMMV.
Though if they don’t take the deal, but still managed to get driven out, then Ukraine could pursue NATO membership on its own, and would be deserving of it, IMO.
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Several similar stories interspersed among others on The Guardian liveblog
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Looks like the Russian soldiers truly believed that they’ll be greeted as liberators
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If Putin is that isolated by security staff his real risk is the security staff,
He could be said to have retired and end up strapped to a bed for the rest of his life and drugged while they track down all his assets and who would know? Going out like Howard Hughes, Vlad.
Or just take him out if he’s in their way. He needs more security to secure him from his security- layers of it. Till they just deep fake his pronouncements or go full animatronic.
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Psyop intended to pump up his fear and paranoia could yield interesting results.
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Yeah. We could all die.
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Would I do that to my pal Rocky?
Edit:
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Possibly. Or he could do more purges leaving Russian army and Russia in general in charge of even more incompetent people.
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“Interesting” certainly means a lot of things these days
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