2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine (Part 1)

I’m just trying to imagine how absolutely fucked a dissident group would have to be before they’d accept “help” from Steve Bannon :thinking:

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He’s one of the founders.

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Yeah, not so much for Lebanon, who saw it’s wheat reserves evaporate in the huge harbor explosion last year. Or other middle asia and north african countries that may not have the deep pockets required to have huge reserves.

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Guardian liveblog:

Russia’s defence ministry has sought to blame an attack at the site of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine on Ukrainian saboteurs.

Ukraine said Russian forces attacked the plant in the early hours of Friday, setting an adjacent five-storey training facility on fire, in an incident that provoked international condemnation of Moscow, a week into its invasion of Ukraine.

A Russian defence ministry spokesman said the nuclear plant was operating normally and the area had been under Russian control since 28 February, Reuters reported.

“However, last night on the territory adjacent to the power plant, an attempt was made by the Kyiv nationalist regime to carry out a monstrous provocation,” spokesman Igor Konashenkov was quoted as saying.

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If this war is to have any sort of a “good” ending, it has to be through regime change in Moscow. Putin’s understanding of the situation is clearly divorced from reality and he looks set to keep pursuing maximum destruction no matter the cost. Unlike the similarly disastrous Soviet Winter War, Putin has left himself no way to cut his losses and accept anything less than a full takeover of Ukraine - for Stalin, Finland was merely a strategically convenient target, but now the independence of Ukraine (controlled by “Nazis”, no less) is presented as an existential problem for Russia. Putin will just keep throwing bombs and conscripts at the problem until it goes away, and Russia simply has more things to throw than Ukraine.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like Putin’s grip on power has been affected so far. The domestic media has a strategy of pretending that there isn’t really any big war, and either not showing any damage to the cities, or blaming it all on Ukrainians, and it seems to be working for the most part. There are protests against the war, but they are much smaller than the ones after the assassination of Boris Nemtsov in 2015 or before Putin’s return to the presidency in 2012. People who get their news from abroad largely prefer to flee the country before it gets worse instead of fighting for change. The near-complete shutdown of all independent media and the crackdown on the internet (foreign news sites like BBC and Deutsche Welle, as well as social media) means that public opinion will continue to be shaped by state propaganda. Latest opinion polls (with all the caveats you can think of about their accuracy) show that Putin’s popularity jumped from 60% to 71% over the week of February 20-27.

Perhaps things will change once the effects of economic sanctions ripple out into the general populace, but even that seems doubtful. Russian society has had too much experience enduring hardships and tyrannical leadership. We may be looking at a repeat of the Soviet invasion in Afghanistan, where it took a full decade for the hopeless war to become unsustainable for the repressive regime.

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I appreciate your reply saving me the trouble of checking. Thank you.

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It’s hard to disagree with the perception that there’s little hope of Russians in Russia rising up effectively against Putin any time soon.

As posted above:

Oleksandra says her mother just repeats the narratives of what she hears on Russian state TV channels.

“It really scared me when my mum exactly quoted Russian TV. They are just brainwashing people. And people trust them,” says Oleksandra.

“My parents understand that some military action is happening here. But they say: ‘Russians came to liberate you. They won’t ruin anything, they won’t touch you. They’re only targeting military bases’.”

While we were interviewing Oleksandra, the shelling went on. The internet connection was weak, so we had to exchange voice messages.

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Latest rumor on Twitter is that Russian troops started staging “Welcome liberators!”-Rallies, even bringing in people by busses. So I guess anyone fact-checking this needs to fire up the face recognition and count how many women are present. Also if and how many use this sign:

Edit: Changed “the Russians” to “Russian troops”. Regardless how many are Russians are duped by state propaganda and how bad it may still become, kin liability should probably be avoided.

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One presenter at the just-shuttered Echo radio station said we could expect Russia to become more like North Korea if this continues. That’s not hyperbole. I can’t blame anyone who sees their country headed in that direction fleeing before it’s too late.

Any positive resolution to this horror lies with the Russian people. This in turn means that a critical battle front, one as important as the brave resistance of the Ukrainians, is information warfare. Unlike no-fly zones, that is something that NATO can throw it’s full weight behind.

Ordinary Russians have to understand who and what is responsible for the 90s-style economic misery and all the cremains of their sons and partners that are about to be visited upon them. Until that critical mass is reached, no-one with the access and means to take Putin out of power will have the courage to do so.

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What is the significance of that sign?

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It’s an international symbol for distress/send help for when it isn’t safe to speak.

ETA:

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The problem is the Russian soldiers don’t have to know what a gesture means to know that it is suspicious. Grateful locals should be smiling and applauding, and anything else is suspect.

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I guess it works right up until you’re at gunpoint.

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Of course. That’s why I assume that it should only get flashed shortly and occasionally.

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https://thehill.com/policy/international/europe/596844-us-russian-attack-on-ukrainian-nuclear-plant-is-a-war-crime

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