Yes, at this time of year Ukrainian fields are very mushy. The roads aren’t great, but the fields are impassible.
I just had an interesting chat with the Lt. Col. in our ROTC program. He was a tank guy, and drove an M1 in Iraq for two tours. He says that they keep telling the students that logistics is everything in a war like this (“I make fun of them, but without the logistics people my tank is just a pretty metal box”). This war is giving them real-time case studies. Aside from the typical macho talk of “If I had two A-10s and my platoon of M1s we’d make quick work of that convoy,” he has says “We knew they NATO or the US could take them, but this level of shittiness is incredibly surprising.” He gives them just a couple weeks before they’ll be unable to use any of their armor or trucks because of fuel and lack of replacement parts. If the Ukrainians deploy tank-stopping devices as simple as concertina wire, they’ll wreck the tanks. An M1 can speed through about 8-9 rows of concertina before the treads get wrapped up and the tank can’t move. Russian tanks can’t handle that much before they’ll be unable to move. Without resupply those tanks won’t go anywhere.
I had read at the beginning that with the logistic problems (both self-inflicted and baked in) that Russia faces, they had about 10 days to finish this. If they were still in the field at that point, they were in deep deep trouble.
Makes me wonder if there was any thought to that behind China’s request (if this is true) to delay the invasion until after the Olympics.
Well, I guess a less frozen winter/earlier spring as a side-effect of global warming is one potential silver lining, here.
(Not sure if /s)
“Ukrainian authorities had been tipped off about the plot by members of Russia’s Federal Security Service who do not support the war”
I find this wild as well as the fact the Russian Air Force is largely staying put during this war.
Putinian rope a dope?
The Russian Air Force:
- Lacks large numbers of guided munitions
- Hasn’t been ordered to flatten Ukrainian cities
- Doesn’t want to waste valuable expensive, difficult to replace, planes on contested skies
- Requires too many skilled people to be easily swapped out by compliant Putin toadies
Russia just banned Facebook.
Shame.
- Due to lack of precision-guided munitions, would have to get within range of the Ukrainian air defenses to be effective, and they do not have the numbers to risk that. Additional factor is that the Ukrainians, amazingly, still maintain air superiority and the Russians are unwilling to take that risk either. It all adds up to, the Russian armed forces are not anywhere near as effective as they were assumed to be, and having been revealed as such, Putin is desperate for something to make him look strong and macho. Which is actually kind of terrifying if you think about that too long.
The use of an “accident” to poison Kiev’s water supply, e.g., came to my mind when the Russian Army took Chernobyl.
Some kind of catastrophic nuclear event is very much possible. Even if the Russian forces would withdraw, I would worry about what they could have left behind.
Meanwhile, there are useful idiots who want Germany’s phasing out of nuclear energy revoked. Their argument is thatG Germany would need their nuclear plants to replace Russian gas. This has been thoroughly debunked, but the idea is in a lot of heads right now. A seed of discontent. Right out of the infowars playbook.
Tanks dont play nice with concertina wire, thats a sure thing. I’ve seen the final drive on an M1A1 sawn through by triple-strand concertina wire. The next complication is that someone then has to get out of the tank to clear it, exposing them to machine gun fire, so you may as well stay where you are and become a bunker.
Yeah, the story goes that he was told “You can’t drive an M1 through 10 rows of concertina.” So of course . . . he made it through 8. He and his guys spent all night fixing the treads on the QT so his CO wouldn’t find out.
It also helps when this seems to be common…
This is an incredible sight:
ETA: According to the Wikis these cost around $16million each. So, around $74 million of equipment destroyed by people with gas cans.
Context:
