Providing support to Russia will stretch out the conflict, even further weakening Russia (and if China’s really optimistic, the rest of Europe)?
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Whichever side loses in this war in Ukraine, China wins. That victory will come at little or no cost to Xi.
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I added a sarcasm tag just to be safe.
I feel “monkey-wrenching” is only ethical if there is no potential for harm to people.
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I do too. But since the beginning it has seemed like the collapse of the offensive is always about 10 days away from any given present time, according to the talking heads. Here’s hoping they’re correct this time…
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Ecofascist! 
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Hope that isn’t paywalled.
Long story short: the world market for inorganic fertilizers as well as wheat (BTW, TTBOMK also linseed, rape and sunflower) are highly volatile at the moment, because much of it is directly depending on Ukraine and Russia.
Farmers in the US face the problem of growing demand for their wheat while not being able to get the fertilizers for their usual practice.
(FTR, people in serveral parts of the world face more serious problems: hunger. Kenya, e.g., already has a shortage of wheat and vegetable oil, apparently.)
If we can make this into an opportunity to create a more sustainable, more cyclical (is that the right verbiage?) agriculture, and lightning fast, then we can somewhat mitigate the effects.
I want to believe.
I really do. But I fear this is beyond the flexibility we can muster, as a society.
ETA: shit. Paywalled.
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That’s a really good point. If Russia really cannot sustain the war at all without assistance from China at this point, then the CCP might just be willing to risk the inevitable backlash just to keep it going a bit longer. I was thinking that China prefers for the war to be happening, but is too risk averse to want to get directly involved, but if things are really going badly for Russia already, then the CCP might be up for a gamble.
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Where I live is a very agricultural area. The issue the farmers here are having is that they presold their crops at the going price prior to the current series of unfortunate events, but are paying current market prices on their fertilizer input, and of course the planting season is only beginning. The middlemen will make bank on the current market, while the farmers are left holding the bag. Like so much of the current system, the actual producers get hurt, while the financial folks profit handsomely.
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I feel the same as you, also regarding less reliance on fossil fuels in the West (esp. the EU) as a potential long-term positive externality of this terrible event.
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Koch Industries are not just in Kansas anymore.
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Tradition. Fred Koch previously worked with the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany.
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It bothers me that their local farmers’ co-op or similar organization doesn’t offer advice in the futures market. Even if the crop isn’t a perfect match, wheat, corn and soy futures are very liquid and they should have been able to buy back the financial side of their production.
The Canada Wheat Board was killed in 2012 by Harper, amidst a flood of propaganda, against the wishes of most farmers, after replacing the farmer elected board, and the assets were looted and turned over to a Saudi company. Mechanisms like that exist exactly to maintain stability in the markets and smooth out times like this. Time to write my MP…
The G7 Agriculture Ministers have issued a statement but I don’t see a concrete plan. From the current UN Food and Agriculture Organization charts it looks like the world has stocks for 2 years to cover the Ukraine dropping out of the production cycle. (Assuming India doesn’t leave huge piles of wheat out in the rain to rot under tarps again.)
We have a lot of potentially arable land left in Canada, back of the envelope the Ontario 
side of the Clay Belt could feed 10 million. Sadly, using that land requires removing forest and chasing away bears (who can apparently munch through alfalfa in prodigious quantities). The big shift will be removing corn and other grains from the inputs for fuel and beef and directing it to humans; we’ll pay (a lot) more for a steak but it’s otherwise surplus calories that should be used to feed humans.
So, we’re [not going to|don’t have to] starve (<- choose one), but “we” (humanity collectively 
) need to manage the situation. Famines are always political.
Edit: fix grammar
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China doesn’t need support to take Taiwan. And if they really wanted it, they could do it at any time.
I don’t think anyone will risk a shooting war with China, and unlike Russia, I don’t think the world economy could tolerate cutting it off from the rest of the world (West). 
And while I know Taiwan has a military, I don’t think they have the means to just pass out AKs to the civilians if invasion was likely. IMO they should be adopting the Swiss model in that respect, but what do I know.
But in the mean time, I think China largely sitting this one out is just showing that China is playing the long game, and is going to become the #1 super power through soft power and economic investments in burgeoning economies.
O_O That seems like an incredible show of support, but also a dangerous one, especially if you are telling the world ahead of time of the visit.
Refugee website crashes as 89,000 Britons rush to take in Ukrainians
Wow. I guess not everyone in Britain is a jaded isolationist.
I was cutting apart a fallen tree that had some nails in it from a bird house or something. Absolutely ruined the saw sharpness and had to be sharpened again.
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By announcing the visit in advance, they are leaving Russia with no excuses if anyone in the delegation is harmed. The Russians have a simple choice: risk killing three foreign heads of government, or do not attack Kyiv today.
ETA: I hope that they have not published a detailed itinerary, because that would help the Russians work out which areas are “safe” to attack.
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as an added bonus, people get to see the spectacle of anyone that shows any sign of a possible opinion being promptly whisked away. such spectacle may weigh in some equations regarding whether or not to protest.
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When I was there for work some years back I spoke with an engineer that served as a reservist in the Taiwanese army, specializing in artillery. He was pretty frank about their prospects in the event of an all-out invasion from the Chinese mainland, estimating that they’d maybe be able to repel an attack for 2 or 3 days. China has about 60x the population of Taiwan.
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Just to emphasize: we, in the rich countries, quite probably do not have to starve.
This piece has a good map, making a point:
(Just FTR: additional uncertainty comes from the Chinese announced that the wheat harvest might be “the worst in history”.)
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Good point. Nothing like killing heads of state to really pop things off.
Yep.
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