Okay… newsweek, so let’s take the headline with a block of salt…
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Wow, that is a great expression. We need that to catch on in English.
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They came close with Gorbachev. The up-and-coming tyrants usually depose them, though.
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This guy is a veteran of the US war in Iraq and it’s definitely understandable if you don’t like his style, but I thought his last couple videos provided an important perspective on what’s going on right now from someone who has more firsthand experience than the average armchair General YouTuber:
It seems to me to be a sober, relatively neutral analysis of the current situation. Not especially encouraging for the Ukrainians but definitely not great news for the Russians either.
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I think his analysis of what is happening on the ground has been solid. It has been pretty measured and promotes realistic expectations. I still need to watch this specific one.
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Like that would ever happen! I doubt there are even mechanisms for any enforcement at that level.
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Boot licking isn’t bringing in the cash anymore over there
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Update from the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia:
And a clarification from one of the Ukrainian negotiators:
If that is the full list of Russian demands at this point, they really understand things aren’t going well. Though an important thing to note is that Russia sent some really small fish to the negotiations (unlike Ukraine, which sent a minister and a presidential advisor, among others), so it’s not guaranteed that Putin will sign off on anything they agree on. Also, the status of Crimea and Donbas is a glaring omission.
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Biden is live.
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What does this mean?
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At a guess, they are referring to Russian language(?)
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Recognition of Russian as an official/regional language in Ukraine. The adoption of such law was one of the triggers of the 2014 revolution. For context:
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Correct. Official language status (or its denial) is very important to ultra-nationalists everywhere in the world, who see it as a gateway to cultural and from there to political dominance.* If the Russians are now willing to accept that as a substitute for Ukrainian recognition of the BS “people’s republics” in Donbas that’s a good sign.
[* ETA: it seldom gets all the way there as it runs into the more mundane economic and policy requirements of running a country]
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Not to mention that many Russian visitors to ex-Soviet block countries don’t even make the attempt to try to speak Ukrainian or Moldovan (basically Romanian) or whatever. It’s a constant source of irritation in these countries.
A similar thing I can think of is USians going to Mexico and being frustrated that not everyone knows English.
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I feel pretty damned certain that was not “errant munitions.” That was targeted specifically because there were civilians sheltering there. “Give up! You have no place to hide!” This tactic has a pretty poor success rate, historically.
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It would be a good sign, but that seems doubtful. It might have been an option while Russia was only supporting the “republics” informally, but I don’t see how they would walk back their formal recognition as independent states. A more pessimistic reading is that Russia hopes to get a deal that does not explicitly mention Donbas, and keep the unilateral recognition as a permanent excuse to meddle in Ukraine.
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That’s a possibility of course. Russia can continue to recognise the “republics” as long as Ukraine isn’t forced to, and neutrality for Ukraine as a nation-state (including Donbas) should technically exclude Russian troops and military support there.
All this understands that such a deal would at best be temporary and almost immediately violated by Putin. But if it results in a complete withdrawal of Russian forces and an end to this humanitarian crisis it might be something everyone can live with.
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"But … this is the time to fear,
When he stands up like a tired man, tottering near and near;
When he stands up as pleading, in wavering, man-brute guise,
When he veils the hate and cunning of his little, swinish eyes;
When he shows as seeking quarter, with paws like hands in prayer
That is the time of peril - the time of the Truce of the Bear!"
– Rudyard Kipling, The Truce of the Bear
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