2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine (Part 2)

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The entire message

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Whatever the case, Dovgiy failed to notify both Hostomel authorities and the city’s residents of his plans. In addition, by the time he made his attempt to steal the graffiti, the city’s administration had already declared the mural a part of Hostomel’s cultural heritage and decided to embed it in the wall of the building that will replace the demolished one.

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It wouldn’t be at all surprising if mobile phone activity as the proximate cause; it’s known that Ukrainian intelligence types have been having a field day with Russians either trying to compensate for lack of tactical radios or just exercising poor radio silence; but I’m having a hard time imagining that “the conscripts we packed in like cattle next to an ammo dump within Ukrainian artillery range are to blame for trying to call home” is an official line that is going to win the hearts and minds of the public.

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I agree, the Russians have not had a gentle hand when apportioning blame. Or the forethought to realise how it would read to the grievers and the Russian bloggers.

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Makiivka has been controlled by the Donetsk People’s Republic since 2014, so Russian soldiers’ phones there are not connecting to Ukrainian networks. Ukrainian intelligence could have learned that Russian troops were at the school from satellite photos or human sources on the ground.

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It’s definitely true that they’d have less to work with in that case, and it would be considerably less convenient than more or less automatic delivery to telco HQ; but unless electronic warfare units weren’t able to get within range they’d still be vulnerable to stingray-type gear and inferential attacks based on a whole lot of new IMEIs with distinct activity patterns showing up.

As you say, though, there are certainly other plausible explanations as well. It’d only take one person who doesn’t love the new administration to provide a tip, or aerial imagery; or some combination of factors that led to the decision to commit relatively high end rocket artillery.

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Stingrays need to be closer to the targeted phones than real cell towers, surely, so they’re not an option. Makiivka is 15 km from the front. To spot activity patterns the Ukrainians would need to hack into Russian or DPR mobile networks.

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Life is “overrated”. Putinism is just another fascist death cult. No wonder American right-wingers admire his regime.

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The Ur-Fascist hero is impatient to die. In his impatience, he more frequently sends other people to death.

https://twitter.com/Prune602/status/1610159386692882432

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Orwell’s review of Mein Kampf is always worth referencing in these discussions (although in my view he over-exaggerates the extent of self-destructive masochism present in any given society).

Nearly all western thought since the last war, certainly all ‘progressive’ thought, has assumed tacitly that human beings desire nothing beyond ease, security and avoidance of pain. In such a view of life there is no room, for instance, for patriotism and the military virtues. The Socialist who finds his children playing with soldiers is usually upset, but he is never able to think of a substitute for the tin soldiers; tin pacifists somehow won’t do. Hitler, because in his own joyless mind he feels it with exceptional strength, knows that human beings don’t only want comfort, safety, short working-hours, hygiene, birth-control and, in general, common sense; they also, at least intermittently, want struggle and self-sacrifice, not to mention drums, flags and loyalty-parades. However they may be as economic theories, Fascism and Nazism are psychologically far sounder than any hedonistic conception of life. The same is probably true of Stalin’s militarised version of Socialism. All three of the great dictators have enhanced their power by imposing intolerable burdens on their peoples. Whereas Socialism, and even capitalism in a more grudging way, have said to people ‘I offer you a good time,’ Hitler has said to them ‘I offer you struggle, danger and death,’ and as a result a whole nation flings itself at his feet.

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Living is overrated, but everything is going great.

The Kremlin released a handbook for authorities and pro-Kremlin media, what they should say in year-end reports about 2022. The handbook’s “recommendations” range from insisting that that Putin “prevented an impending NATO attack on Russian territory” to claims that the “denazification of Ukraine” is going well and that the Russian economy is about to start booming. As for certain inconsistencies — like the fact that Russia is allegedly withstanding “NATO, the most powerful war machine in human history” and, also, that the West is funding Ukraine less and less — the handbook’s authors have no advice. Meduza summarizes the handbook’s main points.

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If they’re admitting 89 casualties at Makiivka, the real number is definitely at least a couple of hundreds.

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Igor Girkin said that there were “many hundreds” of dead and wounded.

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This info is several hours old but worthwhile to note:

Putin orders navy frigate armed with hypersonic missiles to Mediterranean Sea

via CNN:

The Russian navy’s guided missile frigate “Admiral Gorshkov” arrives in the port city of Qingdao, in east China’s Shandong province, on April 21, 2019. (Zhu Zheng/Xinhua/Getty Images)

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a frigate, the “Admiral Gorshkov,” to be sent into combat service on Wednesday.

The ship will undertake a long-range sea voyage across the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, as well as the Mediterranean Sea, reported Russian state media outlet TASS, citing Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

The frigate is equipped with “the latest Zircon hypersonic missile system, which has no analogs - a sea-based hypersonic system - as well as other weapons of the latest generations,” Putin said, speaking via video link with Shoigu and the ship’s commander, Igor Krokhmal.

“I am sure that such powerful weapons will make it possible to reliably protect Russia from potential external threats and will help ensure the national interests of our country,” Putin added.

According to Shoigu, the frigate will “conduct exercises” with Zircon hypersonic missiles.

“I am very happy, congratulations! This is great joint work, which ended with a good, expected result,” Putin said before ordering the frigate to “start completing the tasks.”

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