2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine (Part 2)

Scholz does have this old SPD strain in him, that Germany should only self-defend and not get involved. I think it’s only a matter of time, though. The rest of the cabinet is for it.

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“The republic has the sovereign right to defend its territory do what Putin tells them to…"

From various reports the Belarussian army and people are not too keen on going to war for Putin, even to the point of sabotaging the railways to hamper Russian shipments of weapons and supplies.

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Russia can decide that Ukraine has “invaded” whenever it wants, since it claims sovereignty over Ukrainian territory that it does not control, including the city of Kherson (which it withdrew from) and the city of Zaporizhia (which has been held by Ukraine since the start of the war).

Meanwhile:

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Two Russian warships were nearby: the authorities cover up the biggest GPS attack in Denmark so far
Planes and ships are harassed in Denmark and Europe, and we are not prepared for that at all, experts say.

Blacked out: Two Russian vessels were in the area when Denmark was hit by the largest GPS attack to date
Last year, 27 incidents were reported where Danish, Swedish and Finnish ships lost connection to the GPS systems, a count shows.

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Re: meeting at the US airbase in Ramstein - the German Minister of defence is rumoured to step down next week.

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“We will complete the production of the first batch (tranche – ed.) of ammunition in June-July. By the middle of next year, we will deliver 300 thousand rounds of ammunition to Ukraine. This is a lot, therefore let’s hope that the Ukrainian challenge with ammunition for Gepard will be solved,” Armin Papperger answered a journalist’s question on the ammunition supply to Ukraine.

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A good longform peice on the impact of the war on Ukrainian tech workers

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From the article on Cern:

And as Russian institutes are getting excluded from international projects, some fields see a direct impact – such as climate change research, which is being set back by the suspension of collaboration in the Arctic.

From that linked article from June:

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has drastically escalated regional tensions, and many collaborations are now in peril. Since March, the work of the Arctic Council — an intergovernmental forum comprising eight nations and six Indigenous groups — has been suspended, partly because Russia is the current holder of the body’s rotating chair. Last month, the seven other nations agreed to proceed on limited work without Russia, and discussions are under way about how the role of chair might pass to Norway next year, as planned.

Scientific collaborations have been similarly affected. Much of the research and data sharing relating to the Russian Arctic is on hold, in part because of restrictions imposed by funding agencies in Europe and the United States. Moreover, a number of field experiments originally planned for the region have shifted to the North American or European Arctic. Several international efforts to study permafrost have already been disrupted as a result of economic sanctions against Russia. Although permafrost research is undoubtedly continuing in Russia, the data are no longer widely accessible — cutting off a key source of information for climate models that help researchers to predict future warming.

A study was published in September on the western Arctic Ocean, covering 1994 - 2020 data.

Also consider that Russia stands to gain in the short term from giving Arctic access:

Russia’s Motives for Expanded Indian Presence in the Arctic

Put briefly, Russia’s activities in the Arctic are aimed at achieving three sets of goals. First and foremost is the region’s vast natural resources and Moscow’s desire to accelerate their injection into the global energy markets. The second motivating factor is the regulatory and infrastructural development of the Northern Sea Route which would enable Moscow to rip the commercial benefit of an opening Arctic while simultaneously taking the lead on setting the rules of the road. Finally, Moscow is keen on attracting investment in order to speed up the socioeconomic development of its Arctic region which it deems critical for its “military posture and operations in both war and peace”. In other words, underdevelopment is considered a soft spot that can be exploited by outside powers to steer instability while it discourages people from moving there which could hinder its plans for increased military presence in the region.

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The truth is Crimea has no natural physical connection to Russia. Crimea is an extension of the Ukrainian mainland, and as such, it has been deeply connected to and dependent on Ukraine’s resources and trade for centuries.

Crimea’s historical experience of Russian and Soviet rule, meanwhile, has been one of persistent ethnic cleansing, violence and trauma. This helps explain why a majority of Crimea’s residents voted for Ukraine’s independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. It also helps explain why in 2013, prior to Russia’s invasion of the peninsula, a large majority of poll respondents in Crimea expressed the view that Crimea should be a part of Ukraine.

If the past teaches us anything, it is that Crimea suffers decline when separated from Ukraine, and that Crimea triggers conflict when occupied by Russia. Failing to understand this history is to sleepwalk into a future of more military escalation from the Kremlin.

Presumably the new defence minister will come from the Leopards Eating Putin’s Face Party.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1614335364671348736

https://twitter.com/lizafokht/status/1613494497467310081

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Wagner are likely fucked then? Good. Here’s hoping

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In-line with Liza Fokht’s thoughts:

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