“The motherland is an impoverished babushka at the train station selling potatoes.”
“The reason they are kicking our ass is because they are us.”
If the Ukrainian army really had the same mentality as the present Russian army it would already have lost.
(source: NYT)
By David Leonhardt
Good morning. We offer an update on the second phase of the war in Ukraine.
Ukrainian troops in the frontline town of Barinkove.Lynsey Addario for The New York Times
Putin’s new problems
The first phase of the war in Ukraine was largely a failure for Russia. The second phase is not going very well so far either.
After failing to capture Kyiv and oust Ukraine’s government, Vladimir Putin and his advisers turned to a less ambitious goal. They are trying to capture the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. Russian troops do control large parts of Donbas and have made some recent progress. But it has been modest, and Ukraine has also retaken some strategically important territory.
“Russia’s Donbas offensive has certainly not been as dramatic in terms of gains as we thought it might be,” Michael Schwirtz, a Times correspondent who has been covering the war from the front lines in Ukraine, told me.
Today’s newsletter reviews the evidence of Russia’s recent failures and explains why Russian forces could nonetheless make more progress in coming weeks. Before doing so, I want to spend a moment on basic geography, which I find helpful to making sense of the war.
Putin is trying to dominate a crescent of land that stretches from the easternmost part of Ukraine, on the Russian border, to the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014. Much of the eastern section is known as the Donbas region and includes two provinces (or oblasts), Donetsk and Luhansk. If you can remember the information in this one paragraph, you’ll have an easier time following analysis of the war.
By The New York Times
‘Limited at best’
Here’s a partial rundown of Russia’s struggles:
- Russian troops have not taken control of any major cities in the Donbas region that they did not already control in February, at the start of the invasion, my colleague Julian Barnes notes. “Russian morale remains bad,” Julian says. “The casualties are bad.”
- British officials made a stunning announcement yesterday: Russia appears to have lost about one-third of the troops it has sent to Ukraine. The officials also said Russia’s Donbas push had “lost momentum and fallen significantly behind schedule.”
- One recent battle was so deadly for Russia that it has led to criticism from pro-Russia bloggers.
- “The Russian military has not yet achieved Putin’s stated territorial objectives of securing all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and is unlikely to do so,” Katherine Lawlor and Mason Clark of the Institute for the Study of War in Washington wrote on Friday. Yaroslav Trofimov of The Wall Street Journal has made similar points.
- My colleague Michael Schwirtz noted that, until two weeks ago, he had not seen an aircraft in the sky for more than a month. But he has since seen several fighter planes and attack helicopters, all evidently Ukrainian. Russia’s inability to control the air is hampering its ability to advance.
- Avril Haines, the U.S. director of intelligence, told Congress last week that Russia was “increasingly unlikely” to meet its territorial goals in the coming weeks.
Putin’s edge
In the first phase of the war, Russian troops spread themselves too thinly across Ukraine as they tried to capture much of the country. Russian supply lines often could not keep up with their fighting units, and Ukraine’s military took advantage, surprising much of the world by repelling Russia’s advance.
“The Russians have since changed strategy,” Julian said. “They are moving much slower.”
Russia is effectively trying to win a war of attrition, gaining a small amount of territory each week and ultimately controlling all of the east. Putin could then try to reach a negotiated settlement that allows him to annex parts of eastern Ukraine. Many Ukrainians, as well as their staunchest allies in the West, fear that the U.S. and E.U. might accept such a settlement.
Putin’s biggest advantage remains his edge in resources: Russia has more soldiers and more military equipment than Ukraine. The West has narrowed this advantage by sending weapons to Ukraine, but Russia has destroyed some of that equipment in the fighting. One example: Some analysts believe Ukraine may be running low on Turkish-made drones that have been effective in attacking Russian troops.
That’s why Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, continues to plead with the West for more weapons. President Biden and leaders of both parties in Congress support a $40 billion package that the House has passed and the Senate seems likely to pass soon. Much of Europe has also aligned itself strongly with Ukraine; Sweden and Finland have moved in recent days to join NATO.
Still, Putin’s new go-slow strategy could succeed, especially if the West ultimately tires of helping Ukraine. In the U.S., many Trump-friendly Republicans are already skeptical of the war: Tucker Carlson makes this case on his Fox News show, and 57 House Republicans voted against the $40 billion aid package.
On the other hand, Russia faces its own domestic challenges: Sanctions are damaging its economy, and the industrial sector — which cannot easily import parts — is struggling to make enough precision weapons, Julian said.
Russia is also running low on troops who are available to fight. Putin could increase these numbers by instituting a draft. But doing so would require him to acknowledge that the war in Ukraine is, in fact, a war rather than the modest operation he has portrayed it as — probably because he knows public support is soft.
“As it stands, Russian options are shrinking,” Michael Kofman of CNA, a Washington research group, wrote recently. “The more they drag their feet, the further their ability to sustain the war deteriorates, and the worse their subsequent options.”
For now, Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, a top U.S. intelligence official, told Congress, “the Russians aren’t winning, and the Ukrainians aren’t winning.”
Related: Even if Russia continues to struggle, the West’s endgame is not so simple, Ross Douthat of Times Opinion explains.
Link is paywalled. Is there a brief summary somewhere?
Ultramontane conservative Catholic American with a horror of ladyparts makes disingenuous argument asking the readership of the NYT to consider the validity at the heart of (regrettably extreme and sometimes coarse) fascist and Xtianist talking points.
Same as every other summary of Cardinal Douthat’s columns.
Ross Douthat: Blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah…
Oops, @gracchus beat me to it.
I guess there might be some old Russian soldiers looking to re-live their glory days, but I doubt there are very many.
