… this Secret of NIMH/Pom Poko crossover is dark
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Key Takeaways:
- The policy debate about the US facing a “long war” in Ukraine is misframed. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not a long war for the US, because the US is not fighting this war. Nor is the US fighting a proxy war. The West and Ukraine are not protracting or spreading this war; Russia is.
- A long Russian war is not an inherent Kremlin goal, but rather the Kremlin’s adaptation in pursuit of its maximalist objectives in Ukraine.
- The Kremlin’s ability to sustain a long war in Ukraine is not a given, however, and disproportionately depends on whether Russia is given time and space to rebuild its capabilities.
- The Kremlin’s ability to threaten the US and NATO, as well as the future of Russia’s power globally, disproportionately depends on Russia’s gains or losses in Ukraine .
- Metering Western support to Ukraine and inadequately resourcing all of the required Ukrainian counteroffensives — not just the next one — will protract Russia’s war and increase the associated risks for the US.
- The US risks facing the same escalation risks under worse conditions if it does not help Ukraine liberate its territory through a series of successive counteroffensive operations.
- The West has a profound ability to shape the outcome of the war in Ukraine. The West’s problem is not capability; it is perception.
ETA:
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American political commentator Noam Chomsky has said that Russia is fighting with more restraint in Ukraine than the United States and its allies did during the invasion of Iraq.
In an interview with the New Statesman released on Saturday, the celebrated linguist said the destruction seen in Iraq’s capital has not been witnessed in the current conflict.
He said:
Undoubtedly Russia could do it, presumably with conventional weapons. [Russia] could make Kyiv as unliveable as Baghdad was, could move in to attacking supply lines in western Ukraine.
Chomsky said that Britain and the US has “refused” peace negotiations in Ukraine.
He added that Washington is only supplying weapons to Kyiv in order to weaken Russia.
For the US, this is a bargain. For a fraction of the colossal military budget, the US is able to severely degrade the military forces of its only real military adversary.
Earlier this week, Chomsky was challenged on his views on Ukraine in a combative interview with Times Radio host Matt Chorley.
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Okay, I have a great deal of admiration for Noam Chomsky, but on this subject he should just shut up.
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Plus crooked officials are happy to sell info to Ukraine.
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Defenestration or Novichok or Polonium-210?
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A sledgehammer.
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Let’s hope Prigozhin is correct about Russian forces being in dire straits, unprepared and unequipped to deal with Ukraine’s eventual counterattack.
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