2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine (Part 3)

The Guardian has opened a new liveblog.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/23/russia-ukraine-war-live-russia-investigates-mutiny-as-wagner-chief-says-evil-military-leaders-must-be-stopped

8m ago23.59 BST

Pjotr Sauer

Russian security services have moved swiftly against the Wagner boss,
denouncing Prigozhin for “treachery” and ordering the mercenary
group’s fighters to detain their commander.

The defence ministry also published videos with several senior
military generals who urged Prigozhin to stop what one commander
described as a “coup.”

“This is a stab in the back of the country and the president,” general
Vladimir Alekseyev, the deputy head of Russia’s military intelligence
agency, said in a video appeal to Wagner fighters “This is a coup,”
Alekseyev added.

It was not immediately clear if Prigozhin was acting alone. In one
audio message, the warlord claimed to have the support of “the
majority of the army” as well as 25,000 Wagner fighters.

But Prigozhin for now appears isolated, with several former allies
denouncing his rebellion. General Sergei Surovikin, the deputy
commander of Russia’s Ukraine campaign, who is believed to be close to
Prigozhin, released a video address ordering the mercenaries to remain
loyal to Putin.

“The termination of Prigozhin and Wagner is imminent. The only
possibility now is absolute obliteration, with the degree of
resistance from the Wagner group being the only variable,” wrote
Tatyana Stanovaya, the founder of the political analysis firm R
Politik

“Surovikin was dispatched to convince them to surrender. Confrontation
seems totally futile,” she added.

While there was no immediate sign that Vladimir Putin’s hold on power
appeared threatened, Stanovaya argued that the dramatic episode will
likely damage his standing.

“Many within the elite will now personally fault Putin for letting the
situation escalate to such extremes and for his lack of a timely
adequate response.”

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1672372908558090240

In an emergency news bulletin tonight, Russian state TV is doing what it always does in the immediate aftermath of things going pear shaped for Moscow

Just repeat official statements from the Kremlin and Defence Ministry

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672372440364642305

Ukrainian forces are reportedly conducting active offensive operations in Bakhmut at this moment.

“There are several streets retaken in Bakhmut, there are prisoners.”

Russian MoD reports:

“Taking advantage of Prigozhin’s provocation to disorganize the situation, near Bakhmut, the AFU is concentrating units of the 35th Marine Brigade and the 36th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the starting lines for offensive operations”

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You mean, like a dagger in the back of troops undefeated in the field etc.?

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Yes.

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https://twitter.com/PjotrSauer/status/1672390421719265280

Clear panic among Russian officials. The governor of Sevastopol writes: “Like many of you now, I am not sleeping, updating the news feed. Any conflict is bad. A conflict of this level… is extemeley bad"

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1672395217461288961

Prigozhin is in the process of being disappeared from the Russian internet. There are reports that Russian search engine Yandex has also begun filtering out results about him (like his Wikipedia page)

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1672392270740439040

To be clear – so far there is no evidence of anything happening beyond Prigozhin’s voice memos and various official statements.

Wheeling the generals out, or mentioning Prigozhin on TV, is highly unusual. That suggests it’s serious – whatever it is. But we have seen nothing

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“This is mostly a win-win. Prigozhin is the worst, a war criminal with untold blood on his hands. HIs death will be celebrated by the civilized world. The big question mark is Africa—what happens to Wagner forces currently raping and pillaging their way through the continent in service of the worst repressive regimes? Unmoored by any structure, those Russian mercenaries might engage in even worse atrocities—they’ll want to get paid somehow. Or, they retreat and create a power vacuum that will lead to more death and violence in areas that have already suffered too much of it.”

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Things appear to be moving fast.

Not sure why Onebox is just displaying links. The first post claims to show a military base in Moscow Oblast on fire. The second is Slava Malamud’s version of the popcorn reaction gif.

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1672365807286857731

https://twitter.com/SlavaMalamud/status/1672348395317391362?cxt=HHwWhMCzuamAsLUuAAAA

I just read a Mastodon post arguing that the bird site has basically turned into a Nazi bar. FWIW it’s still publishing comments from Bellingcat’s chief Russia investigator, Christo Grozev, and he’s as prescient as ever :thread: :

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1672327386728222722?cxt=HHwWhMC-obu5prUuAAAA

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Surely Putin can just cede some territory to Prigozhin in order to secure a lasting peace; as long as he avoids humiliating him and maintains an off-ramp…

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Prigozhinstan?

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Recap IK but damn this is crazy.

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I only hope it’s enough of a disruption that Ukraine can gain some ground in the meantime.

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It kind of feels like the major news sites went to sleep a few hours ago.

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Russian channels are sharing a video allegedly showing a Wagner column in Rostov. Can’t tell the location from the footage (or the original source), but the lead vehicle looks like a Chekan MRAP, which is used by Wagner.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672409506901368833

Thread.

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BBC News - Is this a coup? What is Prigozhin doing in Russia?

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If it is the first order of business is to come up with a name for it.

I move we call it “The Caterer’s Coup”, just in case. Or Küchenputsch.

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