I think it’s a lot more than 20%. It’s just that there is much disagreement amongst Democratic voters as to who would make the a better nominee. Biden’s the choice mostly out of compromise.
That 25% of Republicans would prefer another nominee tells me that close to 3/4 of Republicans consider Trump to personify and promote Republican values. It tells me that Republicanism == Trumpism, and that most believe that Trump truly represents Republicanism at its core.
That analysis assumes that the voting demographic is essentially static; that voters never grow up, grow old, or die off. Which, obviously, isn’t true.
There is absolutely no “peeling” required. It is eminently reasonable to just write off everyone who voted [R] last time on the assumption they’ll do it again, and still develop a strategy that leads to a landslide based on the approx 12M voters who’ve come of age since 2016.
That reminded me of John Lee Hooker’s “The World Today” for the following lyrics:
One way to solve their problem, it takes time
The old coots die out and leave it to the young kids
Be a beautiful world and then
There won’t be no fighting on campus any more
'Cause my kids and your kids, when they grow up and get drunk
They’ll understand, all old coots are gone in their grave
recorded exactly 50 years ago (and on my surviving trump playlist)
I agree, but I’m talking about the moment we’re in. As my note at the end points out, Uncle Joe is not exactly the Dem candidate who’ll inspire millions of 18-22 year olds to come out to the polls in November.
The Know-Nothing 27% is static – some mature or age out of it or die, but it remains a weirdly consistent constant (not only in U.S.). The greedhead 2.5% (of the total electorate) is also static – some of them lose their money, but there’s always others to replace them in the GOP electorate, But apart from that there’s a small amount of wiggle room, partially reflected in this survey. So “peeling off” is the best we can hope for in a contest between Biden and Biff (and their respective party establishments).
Why do you suppose this does not happen every election when young voters are predominantely Dems and Old Reps are constantly dying off?
And they’ll still vote for him when he is the nominee, so what’s the point of these polls?
Oh, well, if it meets the threshold of the predication policy, I guess Trump and his followers will have to drop it.
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