NH primary results show Trump has lost a large swath of the GOP

Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2024/01/30/nh-primary-results-show-trump-has-lost-a-large-swath-of-the-gop.html


You Got It Agree GIF

That’s precisely it. The people believing that giving them the deep south will make them safe in blue states don’t really understand what their goals are. They feel entitled to the whole country, not just portions of it that happen to map partially onto the CSA… So handing over “red” states only gives people a reprieve for a short time, at the expense of women, POC, and the LGBQT+ community (as well as any progressives) in those states…

But let’s hope that the portion of the GOP base who came out to vote for Haley will either stay home or vote for Biden if Trump does end up the nominee (which is still very likely). Far too many of those who say they opposed Trump in the past are now just circling the fucking wagons around that corrupt piece of shit.


We don’t have a whole lot of precedent for “former President trying to get his old job back” to use as a basis for comparison. The last time a former POTUS was renominated by his party was 1892 with Grover Cleveland. When Teddy Roosevelt tried to do the same thing 20 years later he lost the nomination to the incumbent.


i smell a growing zephyr of (national) political optimism* among progressives in the last week or so… and my natural morbid pessimism is getting jumpy. We must not relax from furious get out the vote efforts everywhere! (sitting in an already won zone i try to donate my precious dollars where i can)

*for example:


Agreed. There is a world of difference between “we have plenty of reason to hope for the future“ and “everyone just calm down, we don’t need to do anything crazy because it’s all gonna be fine.“


Were Trump or Haley going to win NH anyway?
I’m not familiar enough with it to know how deep the GOP and MAGA rot goes there.
I think, baring some major health issues, that the GOP is stuck with Trump for the nominee. And if he’s not, you know he’s going to take his ball and go home, and tell and his hat friends NOT to vote in the “rigged” election.
And they will. And there are enough “regular” GoP members who won’t vote for Haley because 1) woman and 2) “of color”

I’m more curious at the moment about who Cheeto Musolini is going to pick for VP. I the logical choice would be Haley, but he’s too threatened and petty. So, which sychophant is going to have the suction to go deep to get the job?


Are they still going to vote for whoever the Republican candidate is in November? Because if so,“losing” them is meaningless.


How the MAGAs can justify supporting Trump while loving “America” is always beyond me

Because they are 110% convinced that the Democrats are America hating Marxist who want to literally destroy the country and they will mindlessly follow someone claiming to be their savior.


It’s good to hear he’s not doing great but that doesn’t mean there is no danger that he won’t get votes. And even if one were to make the assumption that he’s not a viable candidate the GOP is still a dangerous party. Voters need to keep pushing against their BS and corruption.


This! I’m honestly more afraid of someone relatively competent with a similar sized based inside the GOP running on what Trump started. Worse, some of these people actually are both competent and believe some of this drivel. Trump is awful and did awful things, but at the end of the day, he’s a con man who rode a racist fueled and Russian op driven train coming at the right time.

My main optimism is that, at the state levels, some of the damage done out there has shown how bad things can really get when we don’t take it seriously, and people likely vote to reverse it while it’s still in memory (especially if the national R’s are infighting this year).

My stretch hope is the Democratic party learns from its mistakes and stops buying into obvious tactics, but I’m old and skeptical enough to doubt that much is coming.


I second this. Complacency will result in a repeat of 2016 (and then 1840, and then 1790, and then 1570, etc.)


Don’t forget-- in 2016 Trump won primaries with only around 30% of the votes. All the GOP non-Trumpers got in line come election day.

Granted things have changed since 2020. The big thing being Jan. 6th, but also four indictments and all his proudly Fascist rhetoric.

The future is unwritten. Vote.


I’m sure that Il Douche doesn’t have near the level of Republican popular support the media narrative claims, either in NH or nationally. I’m equally sure that the GOP leadership is terrified of losing the support of the Know-Nothing 27%, who do overwhelmingly support him.

Given that, and given the continued presence of the broken Electoral College system, we’ll have to continue assuming that he can “win” a majority of the states in November,


Ignore the polling and assume he’s not only going to win the primary, but the general as well, and mobilize/vote accordingly.



I soooooo hope the Repub convention considers not nominating Chetolini and it turns into the sh!t show from the 1968 Demo convention.

How’s Dan Rather. Is he still around?

(yeesh, I’m old.)


That final statistic is extremely damaging to Trump’s general election chances. It means nearly all of Haley’s 43% share of the New Hampshire electorate consists of potential Biden voters.

All this triumphalism seems premature to me.

Sure, those voters are potential Biden voters, but many may come around once Trump is actually the nominee, and vote for him anyway out of party loyalty. Others might decline to vote for president at all, but vote solidly Republican in the down-ticket races, so that we risk getting Biden as President but a firmly Republican House and/or Senate. That’s a recipe for four more years of a very special kind of hell.

Then this is New Hampshire we’re talking about. As past experience has shown, US elections are largely decided by performance in the so-called “battleground states”, and New Hampshire isn’t one. Voting patterns in the swing states that matter may be very different.

If Republican voters really do defect from Trump to Biden in New Hampshire and some other states, that might increase the size of Biden’s popular vote majority. But we could easily have a situation where Biden wins the popular vote convincingly but a combination of gerrymandering, voter suppression, and the screwed-up electoral system still hands Trump the presidency.

And a large lead in the popular vote isn’t even guaranteed. Biden’s wrestling with a lot of baggage, from the perceived impact of his age, to his handling of issues like Palestine, to the fact that rightly or wrongly, many voters are not impressed by his administration’s performance. Lots of basically left-leaning voters may ultimately choose to stay home, no matter how high the stakes.


This strikes a tone far too close to this classic for my comfort:


I don’t think that’s likely, because the conventions tend to be far more tightly controlled mass media events, rather than anything productive happening… probably the problems at both the 64 and 68 Democratic conventions were a catalyst for these being spectacles for TV rather than meetings to finalize who would be running on their tickets…

And yeah, I think rather is still kicking it… he was so young then!


Guess you’re not old enough to remember how violent that was. Why would anyone wish for that again?